Good morning.
Thank you, Madam Chair and members of the committee. Happy Fat Tuesday.
Thank you for inviting me to speak with you today, and for allowing me to beam my testimony from Washington, D.C. It is an honour to advise parliamentarians on a topic as important for our two countries as the one under discussion, the most significant trade agreement on Earth, updated and modernized for the third decade of the new millennium.
You will recall that the new North American free trade agreement was first announced on October 1, 2018. As you've had a number of experts provide background on the elements of the agreement, I'm not going to take up your time with a recap of the history of the rather tortuous path that brought us to this moment. We know what made it into the deal and what didn't. We know that it didn't hit 100% of every constituent's wish list, including ours at the Canadian American Business Council, but a deal that doesn't fully satisfy any party is called a compromise, and compromise is the soul of trade.
Further, I think everyone acknowledges that CUSMA substantially improves not only our trade policies but also government relations in North America. It reaffirms our commitment to the rule of law, our commitment to our economic interdependence, and our belief that Mexico is a crucial partner in our shared prosperity. All three governments agreed that NAFTA needed updating, and frankly, the successful negotiations were a tremendous relief to business.
As you can probably guess, the Canadian American Business Council wants to see it become law sooner rather than later. I speak for businesses in both countries, and I am here to tell you that this new deal is a set of stable rules that we will be able to depend upon for years. Business loves stability. Business loathes uncertainty. You've probably heard that formulation before. A lot has been written about how companies and financial institutions have been sitting on capital since the 2008 meltdown, despite efforts by central banks to encourage spending and lending. It's because of uncertainty.
The global trade environment at the moment is volatile. Stable, mutually agreed-upon trade rules are reassuring. Don't we all want to see businesses confidently spending on growth and expanding commerce right here in North America?
As a former American diplomat to Canada, and someone who has woken up every single morning for the last two decades working on the Canada-U.S. relationship, it is my mission to know the pulse of both Congress and the White House on the issues of bilateral concern that affect our business coalition. Believe me when I tell you that we are in a rare moment today. If anyone thinks it's still possible to find leverage and rewrite CUSMA, I think they misunderstand this moment in time. We are truly at a point where the Parliament of Canada must say “yea” or “nay”, up or down.
That said, let me go a little bit further and tell you what I think would happen from a Washington perspective if the vote in Canada is "nay" and the deal goes down. You all know that the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate ratified what we in Washington call the USMCA in December and January. Do you know how many bills have been introduced so far this session in Congress? There have been thousands. Do you know how many have passed the House? There have been nearly 500. Do you know how many have made it through the House and the Senate so far? There have been 91, and most of those were to name post offices or veterans affairs buildings. We really don't have much agreement down here on anything.
Do you remember when Speaker Pelosi actually tore up the State of the Union address, moments after the President delivered it on live national television? Well, she didn't tear up the modernized NAFTA, as some in her party would have wanted her to do. Instead, she led a comprehensive, thoughtful effort to pass it. The USMCA didn't just pass; it passed with overwhelming bipartisan majorities. In the current political climate here, that was an achievement.
Then, President Trump signed it into law at the end of last month, and as you know, President Trump doesn't always do what Congress asks him to do, so the stars in Washington have aligned.
Now let me put my advocate hat back on for a moment and speculate on what might happen if, now that the agreement has passed both chambers of Congress, has been signed at the White House and, importantly, has been ratified in Mexico, it were to fail in the Canadian Parliament.
As you have probably heard, President Trump instinctively tends toward protectionism. His slogan is “America First”. He has described himself as “a Tariff Man”. He doesn't react happily when he's embarrassed, which he certainly would be if the new agreement fails in Canada. He rightly regards the agreement as his signature legislative accomplishment in his first term.
His fallback would be tariffs. Canada, Mexico and the United States have already been through that unfortunate chapter. If trends in the current democratic primary race continue, President Trump's opponent this fall may well be Senator Bernie Sanders.
Senator Sanders describes himself, as you know, as a democratic socialist. Like other people on the political left, he not only dislikes trade deals, like the original Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement and NAFTA, but he has made his opposition to this new agreement plain. He, too, would prefer to rely on tariffs to protect what he sees as America's economic interests. Let's not forget that Senator Sanders was one of the few members of Congress who voted against the USMCA.
I imagine you can see where I'm going here. Does anyone really think it's a good idea to prod this president or his potential rival into a tariff war with Canada and Mexico? An irritated president, with the snap of his or her fingers, can thicken our international border, clogging traffic and giving businesses in both countries migraines. But given the size of our respective economies, I'd submit that the migraines would be worse in Canada.
As someone who speaks for leading Canadian and American businesses, I would point out here that our members already have a few headaches. There is the rather delicate issue of the rail blockades. And there are questions about the ability to site and fund new infrastructure projects, particularly in the energy sector, as you know.
I would suggest that rejecting the new trade agreement in this environment would amount not just to an unforced error but to a serious self-inflicted wound.
That said, let me take a more optimistic tack here just for a moment. Unlike the United States, Canada has, since the 1980s, seen free trade agreements as being in its crucial national interests. Given the relative size of your market, Canadians have had a greater interest than most in clear, transparent, agreed-upon rules, which is probably why Canada has had free trade agreements with Europe, Chile, Jordan, Israel, Costa Rica, Honduras, Korea, Panama and Peru.
Otherwise put, Canadian businesses have clear and preferential rules with markets representing trillions of dollars. Does it not make sense to update and pass an agreement with Canada's single largest trading partner? I dare say a long list of other countries would love to have preferential access to the American market at this point. Proximity without access is frustrating, to say the least. An agreement with the biggest market in the world is ready and available right now. Everyone is waiting.
The position of the Canadian American Business Council is that your choice is clear. The updated agreement strengthens a commercial relationship that has existed since the earliest days of our countries. The effort of the last three years has been intense, sometimes nerve-racking, but we are nearly there. Canadian parliamentarians have a simple question before them, and I submit that to ask it is to answer it.
Thank you very much.
I'm happy to take your questions.