I entirely agree. A report that counts the number of wins and losses isn't telling us that much about the impact of ISDS because the real impact is behind the scenes. To get at that impact is very difficult for an outsider—I have tried by interviewing officials.
I think there are many examples of governments' changing their decisions as a result of ISDS risk. Now whether or not the change was good or bad could be argued, but I can tell you that there are many examples in many countries where behind-the-scenes decisions have been changed, and sometimes in ways that are pretty alarming.
The Ethyl case is one of the most famous settlements in the history of NAFTA. It's one of the early cases where Canada had a very concessionary settlement, including the withdrawal of proposed legislation. It's a long story. I don't want to draw us into that rabbit hole.
I would say that what happens with ISDS is that the question of the merits of a decision is no longer left to the institutions of the country ultimately—to the government, to the legislature, to the Supreme Court. The ultimate decision-maker becomes a panel of arbitrators whose role is triggered by a multinational. That extraordinary change in the decision-making infrastructure of your sovereign country leads to all kinds of pressure behind the scenes. I would say that, above all in a crisis—any kind of crisis—this behind-the-scenes pressure is going to be bad for any Canadian perspective that differs from that of someone who can claim to be a foreign investor and has enough money to bring a credible threat of a claim.
That means it could be an economic crisis, a financial crisis, an environmental crisis or a public health crisis. It's not good, and I fear we're going to face more of those crises in the future. There are plenty of examples of this.
Quickly, I'll just highlight that many trade agreements do not allow for ISDS. The new NAFTA has removed ISDS between Canada and the United States. That's one of the most positive things I've encountered in my couple of decades following ISDS, and it came from the Americans. The Americans decided that ISDS was too much of a constraint on their own sovereignty, and among other things, it created incentives for American companies to move manufacturing abroad. That was a concern.
I'm saying that U.S.-Canada relations will always be fundamental for us. By the way, I completely respect and defer to the wisdom, expertise and experience of others on the panel. I'm just saying that it's case-by-case, treaty-by-treaty-specific how you withdraw in a non-provocative manner that doesn't offend relations with the United States, that doesn't offend multinationals, that doesn't say that Canada's going back to the bad old days of the 1970s where Pierre Trudeau was friends with Fidel Castro or I don't know what.
It's looking forward. We need to free ourselves from ISDS because of the crises that are coming in the future and just because, at this point, we cannot have our governments being deterred behind the scenes from essential steps they need to take to protect Canadians.