It is my understanding that there have been no compulsory licences issued for COVID vaccines thus far. It's hard to know to what extent that is, whether there is no opportunity for a compulsory licence to be issued where it would be useful, or whether countries are doing a cost-benefit analysis and finding that maybe there would be some upside to this but that they would expect trade retaliation from many other countries, so they do not want to do it. I suspect it's part of both. Probably the retaliation makes them hesitant to even consider it. On the other hand, there's probably no golden opportunity where the upside would justify doing so.
I think it's a little bit of both, but the retaliation certainly plays a role.