Yesterday we had the announcement by the European Commission that they are recommending the opening of negotiations with Ukraine on accession. Things are starting to get real here. That recommendation needs to be ratified by the European heads of government summit, which will be on December 14. In the usual EU fashion, there will probably be some horse-trading around that, but it's likely to be approved. By next March, we are supposed to have an agreed negotiating framework between the two sides and then negotiations.
Some countries have been stuck in negotiations for decades. What we can see, though, is that key countries in the EU—especially Germany and France—have now thrown their weight behind Ukraine, essentially thinking it's better to have Ukraine inside the tent than next door to the tent. In 2014, Ukraine signed an association agreement with the EU, which gave it some of the advantages of the single market but not all of them, and no co-determination. Now the decision is that it should be on the inside.
Once those two big countries, especially, switched to that position.... That was also reflected by German Chancellor Scholz a couple of weeks ago at a meeting with the Ukrainian Prime Minister and economy minister saying to German businesses that, when they are investing in Ukraine, they are investing in a future EU member country within our system. That's also a message to Canadian businesses.
I would say 2030—six and a half years or seven from now—is realistic. Some Ukrainians are more optimistic, but personally, I think they need a transition period. Just like Canada with the FTA with the U.S. and then NAFTA, you need transition periods so the parts of your economy that aren't ready for full integration and competition—like with the French, Spanish and German companies that have deeper pockets—don't get steamrolled in the process.
I would say 2030 is realistic.