International Trade Committee on April 21st, 2026

[The Chair (Hon. Judy A. Sgro (Humber River—Black Creek, Lib.)), Liberal, Judy Sgro]

I call the meeting to order.

Welcome to meeting 32 of the Standing Committee on International Trade. Welcome to our witnesses.

Pursuant to Standing Order 108(2) and the motion adopted by the committee on Thursday, February 12, 2026, the committee is resuming its study of Canada's trade with North and West Africa.

We have with us today, as an individual, Thierry Warin, full professor, HEC Montréal. From the African Union Sixth Region Global, we have Macaulay Kalu, Secretary General. From the International Development Research Centre, we have Marie-Gloriose Ingabire, regional director, Central and West Africa, by video conference, and Erin Tansey, program director, sustainable inclusive economies.

Welcome to all of you for this very important study.

We will open the floor for our speakers.

Mr. Warin, I invite you to make an opening statement of up to five minutes, please.

[Thierry Warin, Full Professor, HEC Montréal, As an Individual]

Madam Chair and members of the committee, thank you for the invitation to contribute to your work on an important issue for Canada: Canada's trade with North and West Africa.

My name is Thierry Warin. I'm a data science professor for international affairs at HEC Montréal and a fellow at CIRANO.

Canada is an open economy, but it is also an economy that operates in close proximity to the largest market in the world, the United States. Talking about trade with other regions today also means talking about trade with the United States.

If you draw on theoretical frameworks, you might be tempted to pit two classic explanatory models against each other. On the one hand, what is known as the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model—I’m sorry, I am a professor—which emphasizes factor endowments and specialization. On the other, the gravity model, which explains trade flows by the size of economies and, above all, by distance.

In Canada's case, it is quite clear that the gravity model is empirically dominant, but this dominance does not imply the optimal allocation of trade flows. It also reflects frictions, notably information asymmetries.

This is where we need to take a step back and consider data science. Countries do not trade; companies do. Decisions to export or import are not taken at the aggregate level, but at the company level, subject to very concrete constraints: imperfect information, prospecting costs, uncertainty regarding partners and difficulty in identifying the right inputs and the right markets.

In this context, the geographical focus on the United States is partly the result of rational trade-offs in the face of uncertainty. However, it may also mask untapped opportunities.

The real question is no longer simply who to trade with, but which products, which inputs and within which value chains. It is from this perspective that diversification towards Africa must be understood. Diversification does not simply consist of adding partners; it consists of precisely identifying the final products or inputs for which there is genuine complementarity. When we examine the figures now, four key elements emerge.

Firstly, in terms of volume, trade between Canada and Africa remains modest, and its dynamics vary across sub-regions. With North Africa, total trade rose from around $3.8 billion in 2015 to $4.7 billion in 2024. In West Africa, the dynamic is different. Total trade rose significantly from $2.5 billion to just over $5.8 billion in 2024. That growth is entirely driven by Canadian imports.

Secondly, geographical concentration is particularly pronounced. In North Africa, three countries—Algeria, Morocco and Egypt—account for the bulk of Canadian exports, with combined shares exceeding 90% depending on the year. In West Africa, the concentration is even greater on the import side. In 2024, Nigeria, Mauritania and Côte d’Ivoire accounted for over 90% of Canadian imports from the region. We are therefore dealing with trade structures dominated by a very limited number of partners, which potentially creates significant dependencies.

Thirdly, concentration by product is extremely high for Canadian imports from West Africa. In 2024, the top three product categories accounted for over 93% of these imports, dominated by mineral fuels, precious metals and cocoa. Conversely, Canadian exports are slightly more diversified, but remain concentrated. In North Africa, the top three products still account for around 63% of Canadian exports and the top five for nearly 78%. We are therefore dealing with situations where a few products currently account for the bulk of trade flows.

Fourthly, in terms of specialization, Canada mainly exports plant products, particularly grains, as well as inputs such as fertilizers and, in some cases, equipment. Conversely, Canadian imports are dominated by primary products: energy, minerals, specific agricultural products or inputs. This asymmetry is robust, even if its precise form varies by country. It reflects a vertical organization of trade, rather than intra-sectoral trade.

Finally, if these elements are combined, several trade patterns can be identified. An agri-food corridor with North Africa, which is relatively diversified and based on agricultural complementarities; an energy corridor with West Africa, heavily concentrated around Nigeria and characterized by a dependence on fuels; and industrial input corridors, notably with Morocco or certain West African partners.

What this essentially means is that diversification towards Africa cannot be considered solely in geographical terms. It must be considered in terms of flow structures, products and value chains. This is precisely where data science becomes crucial. It enables us to identify, at a granular level, the relevant complementarities—those that are not visible when viewed at an aggregate level.

Thank you for your attention. I will be pleased to answer your questions.

[The Chair, Liberal, Judy Sgro]

Thank you very much.

Mr. Kalu, please go ahead.

[Macaulay Kalu, Secretary General, Africa Union Sixth Region Global]

Chair and honourable members of the Standing Committee on International Trade, thank you for this opportunity.

I stand before you on behalf of the African Union Sixth Region Global, the constitutional voice of over 300 million Africans in the diaspora, formally recognized within the African Union system. We are not an external stakeholder. We are an institutional bridge linking Canada directly to one of the most consequential economic transformations of our time: the African continental free trade area.

This is not a future opportunity. It is a present reality. It is a single market of 1.4 billion people, has a combined GDP of $3.4 trillion and is a continent integrating faster than many anticipated, yet Canada remains on the margins. While competitors like China, the European Union, the United States and Turkey move with speed, structure and strategic intent, Canada continues to hesitate. In global trade, hesitation is not neutrality. It is absence.

Let me be a bit direct in my presentation. The greatest risk for Canada in Africa is not competition. It is irrelevance. A lesson within Canada, the Quebec example, is what makes this particularly compelling. Canada already holds the answer within itself. Let's consider Quebec. Quebec did not wait for perfect conditions. It acted through its Africa strategy.

It deployed a focused, well-funded, whole-of-government approach anchored in economic diplomacy, education and cultural and institutional partnerships. It established permanent offices in Dakar, Abidjan and Rabat. It executed targeted trade missions across western North Africa. It built structured partnerships with institutions like Morocco's private sector federation. The result is this: access, influence, trust and deals. Quebec demonstrates a simple but powerful truth that strategy is not what you announce; it is what you execute.

Let's look at the global benchmark here. What does winning look like around the world's successful actors in Africa? It follows these three consistent principles: presence, partnership and pace.

The European Union invests through structured Global Gateway initiatives, China deploys capital through coordinated infrastructure diplomacy and Turkey builds trade corridors through agile SME engagement. They are not waiting for certainty. They are building influence through actions. As the proverb reminds us, the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago; the second-best time is now.

With regard to the strategic reality, let me offer a case in point. The Simandou project in Guinea is one of the largest iron ore developments in the world. Despite linguistic, legal and historical alignment, Canada secured only a minor role, not because of lack of capacity, but because of a lack of coordinated strategy. This is not an isolated case. It is a pattern.

Let's look at the opportunity and at a smarter approach. Canada does not need to outspend global competitors. It needs to out-strategize them, and that begins with leveraging its most underutilized asset: the African diaspora, or the sixth region. We are not observers. We are investors. We are connectors and we are cultural translators. We reduce risk, accelerate entry and unlock trust. As one leadership principle reminds us, speed is the new currency of trust. In Africa today, trust is earned through presence, partnership and performance.

As a practical pathway forward, this path is not complicated. It is focused. Rather than spreading resources thinly across 55 countries, Canada must adopt a hub-and-spoke strategy. Anchor in key markets like Nigeria, South Africa and Morocco, and use these hubs to expand into regional blocs like ECOWAS and SADC. Deliver measurable results within 12 to 24 months, not in 10 years. This is not theory. It is execution.

Let's look at the closing charge.

Honourable members, Africa is not asking for charity. It is offering partnership.

Canada is not lacking capacity. It is lacking coordinated urgency, and history is clear. Nations that move early shape the rules. Nations that delay follow them. The window is open, but it's closing. The African Union Sixth Region Global is ready. The diaspora is ready. The opportunities are real, and now Canada must decide: Will it observe this transformation or will it help to change it?

The strategy we have is to deploy a focused, well-funded, whole-of-government approach anchored in economic diplomacy, education, culture and institutional partnerships. Establish a permanent office based on what Quebec did, and build structures around the whole area.

Once again, I want to say thank you for the opportunity. I'm looking forward to your questions.

[The Chair, Liberal, Judy Sgro]

Thank you very much.

Before we go on to our next presenter, we need to do a sound check. I'll suspend for a moment.

[The Chair, Liberal, Judy Sgro]

Ms. Ingabire, since we have you on the line now, please go ahead.

[Marie-Gloriose Ingabire, Regional Director, Central and West Africa, International Development Research Centre]

Thank you very much, Madam Chair and committee members, for giving us the opportunity to appear before you today.

Our institution—the International Development Research Centre—invests in practical, locally led research to identify problems, develop solutions and inform sound public policy across a range of disciplines.

As a Crown corporation, IDRC is a unique and strategic element of Canada’s international engagement with more than 50 years of experience supporting innovation partnerships globally, including across the African continent and in francophonie countries where Canada has deep engagement with knowledge leaders.

As you know, Africa’s trade landscape is evolving rapidly. Countries are navigating global trade fragmentation, geopolitical competition, climate pressures and technological change. These forces are reshaping how African economies participate in global markets—and who benefits from trade.

In response, continental and regional integration has become a central strategy. The African Continental Free Trade Area—also known as AfCFTA—reflects the trend toward more coherent, rules-based markets. [Technical difficulty—Editor]

[The Chair, Liberal, Judy Sgro]

Ms. Ingabire, we're having problems with your connection. Can I turn the floor over to Ms. Tansey? Maybe we can come back to you at a later time. I'm sorry about that, but that's what happens.

Ms. Tansey.

[Erin Tansey, Program Director, Sustainable Inclusive Economies, International Development Research Centre]

Thank you very much, Madam Chair.

I can continue with Marie-Gloriose's words, because they're right in front of me.

To better understand where trade opportunities exist, and why they are often not realized, IDRC undertook region-specific scoping research. Authored by local experts, including northern, southern, and pan-African perspectives, the papers examine the structural and institutional factors shaping trade outcomes between Canada and Africa. They propose key knowledge gaps that must be filled to ensure trade is mutually beneficial and supports inclusive and sustainable development. They also highlight emerging opportunities that could be capitalized on—provided enabling conditions are in place.

I will now carry on with what I was going to say.

Hopefully, I did you well there, Marie-Gloriose.

In West Africa, the opportunities identified include strengthening regional value chains in energy, agri-food processing, logistics, and digitally enabled services, where market demand is growing but coordination and standards remain uneven. In North Africa, economic diversification, decarbonization of carbon-intensive industries and expansion of services beyond traditional sectors are opening potential avenues for partnerships in renewable energy, green infrastructure, clean technology, education, and financial services. Across both regions, digital trade, interoperable payment systems and skills development have emerged as cross-cutting priorities that can reduce costs, broaden participation and support deeper integration into regional and global markets.

The research shows that fully realizing these trade opportunities depends on system-level collaboration rather than on isolated or firm-level solutions. In short, we need to build an ecosystem and business environment conducive to Canadian companies' investment and engagement. Effective regional markets require coordination among many actors—governments, regulators, chambers of commerce and professional associations, to name a few—to align rules, reduce fragmentation and create operating environments in which firms can scale and integrate. These conditions shape who can participate in trade, and on what terms, while directly affecting how easily Canadian firms can enter or expand in African markets.

This is where research for development becomes a practical trade tool. IDRC convenes regional actors and connects policy ambition with locally grounded evidence to inform implementation and investment decisions. For example, IDRC-supported research and researchers are testing AfCFTA operational instruments to assess how provisions function in practice.

The trade law centre, which is actually based in South Africa, is conducting legal and regulatory analysis of the AfCFTA protocol on women and youth in trade, building evidence to strengthen customs, standards and trade facilitation institutions through the collection of trade-, firm- and gender-disaggregated data. IDRC also invests in strategic alliance building, in technical assistance and in piloting innovative financing mechanisms that can boost international trade readiness for small and medium-sized enterprises in Africa. This lays the groundwork for institutions like FinDev and others investing in the region.

I'll leave you with three takeaways. Locally led research is integral to unlocking opportunities for Canada's strategic trade diversification. Inclusive trade implementation supports stronger market performance, more reliable supply chains and more durable and mutually beneficial trade outcomes. Investments in evidence, institutions and regulatory co-operation complement traditional trade promotion tools.

In short, strengthening mutually beneficial trade with North and West Africa will require mobilizing evidence and partnerships to reinforce market systems and reduce tariff and non-tariff barriers to participation. Institutions like IDRC—

[The Chair, Liberal, Judy Sgro]

Thank you very much, Ms. Tansey. I'm sorry. We have to close it off.

[Erin Tansey]

That's no problem.

[The Chair, Liberal, Judy Sgro]

Mr. Groleau, you have six minutes. Go ahead, please.

[Jason Groleau, Conservative, Beauce, QC]

Good morning, Madam Chair.

Dear guests, good morning.

Mr. Warin, I congratulate you on your impressive track record. I am pleased to have you here.

In your opinion, what are the greatest economic opportunities between Canada and Africa? Does Africa have the necessary port infrastructure to increase its capacity to do business with Canada?

[Thierry Warin]

You raise several points.

Today's trade is well established: We mainly export plant products to certain countries in North and West Africa.

Trade and transportation infrastructure are interconnected. International trade experts often forget that trade needs to be transported. We must ensure that the infrastructure—both ours and that of the receiving countries—is in place.

Morocco is investing in a new port, for example. Here at home, we need to know which products will see increased demand. As mentioned, the African continent has a population of 1.4 billion. That population will double in the coming decades, likely by 2050; in any case, it will reach a significant number. This is likely a market that needs new resources, such as infrastructure. That will need to be transported if we are partners in this development.

In short, we need to compile a list of what is worth sending to the African continent. I will speak for Quebec, my home: this may require upgrades to Mirabel's capacity for air-freighted goods or improvements to port capacity—including in Contrecœur, to mention just one project.

[Jason Groleau, Conservative, Beauce, QC]

That is very interesting.

You said, “transporting trade”. As far as I know, the United States is still right next door, even though we’re waging a tariff war. Geographically, it hasn’t moved; it's in the same location.

Over the weekend, the Prime Minister said something that somewhat shook me. He said that our relationship with the United States was a weakness. The United States remains our largest economic partner, and in my view, it always will be.

What is your stance on our relationship with the United States? Do you believe the U.S. will continue to be our main partner?

[Thierry Warin]

Those are thorny questions, so I will approach them from a researcher's perspective.

In fact, 30% of Canada’s gross domestic product comes from exports, which means that 70% stays here. Of that 30%, 75% or 76% goes to the U.S. economy.

I mentioned the gravity model because we tend to think of international trade as flowing from one country to another. In reality, take Quebec, Ontario and the eight U.S. states surrounding the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River—the St. Lawrence is a trade corridor. If this region were a country, it would be the world’s third-largest economy. This helps us understand to what extent it is not just trade, but also an integrated economy.

As I was saying, not everything we do together is optimal. Just because we do business together doesn’t mean it’s optimal across all sectors and for all products.

There is a project at CIRANO called “GVCdtLab.” It’s a digital twin project that provides us with this data in real time. That means we’re roughly able to tell you which products require us to find partners other than the friend we once high-fived in Chicago, in the United States. Thanks to the comparative cost advantage, we can identify other spots around the world where we might find partners willing to pay a higher price for the product we currently sell to a partner in the United States.

We can map this out, we can diversify effectively, and we can optimize our partnerships with U.S. companies and with other companies around the world. Strangely enough, this also means that we are in the process of optimizing our relationship with the United States.

To come back to your first question—namely, whether Canada’s relationship with the United States is a weakness and whether we can leave this partnership—the scientific answer would be no. As to whether it is a weakness, I would say that we can, in fact, turn it into a strength and make our relationship better than it is today.

[Jason Groleau, Conservative, Beauce, QC]

Thank you for your answers.

Mr. Kalu, let me ask you the same question I asked at the beginning: What are the greatest opportunities for developing trade between Africa and Canada?

[Macaulay Kalu]

First of all, I want to focus on the fact that when we use the word Africa when we talk about trading, it is a continent. Instead of trying to spread ourselves thin, we should really form a strategy with the aspect of trade. That's why in my presentation I presented key opportunities on how to do that by looking at the major entry markets.

You already have a relationship with Nigeria. You have Morocco, to enter the Maghrib region. You have Nigeria to go through the West Africa region. You have South Africa, which is already a great, number one partner with Canada, to get into the SADC and COMESA regions. That strategy helps us to stay focused and not to be spread so thin. It increases what is already working. You don't want to reinvent the wheel.

We just launched a digital trade portal today, based on what we've been doing for the past nine years in intra-Africa trade. Now, it's one thing to talk about trade policy in Africa, which is where I believe Canada can do a little more work in supporting the infrastructure needed, based on our interests, to make sure that infrastructure will support trade corridors—

[The Chair, Liberal, Judy Sgro]

Mr. Kalu, I'm so sorry. I'm very interested in what you're saying, but I have to share the time equally. I've managed to give Mr. Groleau an extra minute while we were listening to you.

Go ahead, Madame Lapointe.

[Linda Lapointe, Liberal, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, QC]

Thank you very much, Madam Chair.

I would like to welcome the witnesses. Everything you have brought to light is very interesting, and we thank you very much.

Mr. Warin, earlier you mentioned various business opportunities we are not taking full advantage of, such as integration opportunities. Which ones would you highlight?

[Thierry Warin]

In our current trade exchanges, there are markets we turn to, such as the United States, which is our natural partner. Take the example of automotive parts, which are produced in Ontario. They could be sold more profitably in other countries. It’s not necessarily negative to think that if we no longer have as much access to U.S. markets—which isn’t entirely true either—we should turn to other countries. In fact, that’s not the right reason, because we could even profit by turning to African markets.

I’m a data science professor in the International Business Department. As you can see, I have all my notes with all my numbers.

I would say that today, we are capable of mapping out the products—among those 76% and even across all our exports—that would find better markets around the world, and then we need to find the companies to do business with. Obviously, it’s always more complicated, but we are up to the task, as I mentioned in the automotive parts example.

[Linda Lapointe, Liberal, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, QC]

Thank you very much.

In my riding, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, which is located in the northern outskirts of Montreal, we were home to General Motors back in the day. We still have Nova Bus, Paccar, and several suppliers in the transportation sector, but we also host the aerospace industry.

Earlier, you also mentioned Montreal-Mirabel International Airport. You seemed to suggest that it could help the region in terms of imports and exports, as well as port operations. Could you tell us more about that?

[Thierry Warin]

In fact, we have a table with indicators. I mentioned the principle of comparative advantages, which is an indicator we’re working on in our research with an entire team. By factoring in transportation costs, we’re able to identify the products currently flowing between Canada and the United States and determine whether it might be best to export them to another part of the world.

We realized that, for many pharmaceutical products, there are actually other places in the world that would be willing to pay more than what our American partner currently pays.

Pharmaceutical products are transported by air rather than by container, which means that by conducting this mapping, we can determine the extent to which we need to increase our port and airport capacity. I would argue that this type of study allows us to make a more scientifically informed decision about what we need to diversify. You could call it intelligent diversification.

That brings me back to Mr. Groleau’s first question regarding the infrastructure capacity required to achieve this.

[Linda Lapointe, Liberal, Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, QC]

Thank you.

Mr. Kalu, I have a question for you. Earlier, you highlighted the fact that Quebec didn't wait for perfect conditions, and you said that Canada had a lack of coordination or strategy. Do trade commissioners have any influence in that environment?

[Macaulay Kalu]

Once again, based on my presentation, when you talk about strategy, the diaspora is an asset that Canada is not really utilizing at this point. The fact is that the diaspora understands everything, from culture to every other thing you can think of concerning the continent itself. Leveraging the diaspora is part of what Quebec did. They used the diaspora to launch within the Dakar region, and it was very successful.

There are places where diplomacy cannot work. Look at the private sector. It's business to business. You want to talk to the people who understand the language. The strategy here would be to use boots on the ground, which is the diaspora. Through our office, we have people on the ground in all five member states, but we also have regional representation, which makes it easier for us to function.

The biggest asset is using the diaspora to make the world much easier. That's why even before Canada's Africa strategy document was out—as consultation showed—business was still going on and Canada was benefiting from diasporans who did not stop dealing with Africa or doing whatever it took to still do business and make an increase.

Leverage the diaspora. It is a key asset to make the trade process happen.