I don't think you can link all of those. I don't agree with the linkage you're making between each of those groups. Each is quite different, and the foundation upon which their observations and analysis is based is also quite different, written from a different perspective.
I can't comment on Senlis. I can't comment on the International Crisis Group. Really, I've not read their reports. I read the New York Times piece that made reference to the CIA report. I've not read the CIA report.