Thank you very much, Mr. Chair. I'd like to thank you for your invitation to discuss our knowledge of the impacts of climate change on Canada's Arctic and how we must adapt to this new reality of change.
The short deck that I would like to present this afternoon is based on the findings and content of this major scientific national assessment that was led by NRCan and that I served as the lead scientific coordinator for.
Turning then to the second slide on the deck, I want to emphasize for committee members that this report looks at all of Canada and the issues that we're facing in terms of climate change impacts and adapting to them. It summarizes major progress over the last 10 years. It involved 145 authors from across the country and was reviewed by more than 100 experts from both the academic community and from governments.
We have to start off by saying that there is unequivocal scientific evidence that Canada's north is already experiencing widespread changes in climate and that local observations by northerners strongly support this instrumental scientific conclusion.
In the last 50 years, the climate of the Arctic has changed at a rate and magnitude that has no precedent within human experience. Significant increases in temperature and precipitation have been observed, particularly in the western Arctic. The most extreme years in our total observation record have occurred within the last decade, and every global climate model projects that these trends will both continue and indeed accelerate in the coming decades.
So with the remaining slides of this deck, then, I want to outline some of the changes and the implications of these changes that may be of interest to the committee.
The third slide highlights an issue that we've heard a great deal about already and, I'm sure, is of central concern to you, and that is the issue of marine shipping and the viability of the Northwest Passage as an international shipping route. The report does note the rapid decrease in summer sea ice extent over the last decade, but also notes that, despite this rapid trend in reductions, the year-to-year variations in sea ice extent will remain high. Ice hazards, even in comparatively open water conditions, will likely remain prevalent for several decades.
Based on the scientific literature that was available, the report talks about the Northwest Passage being consistently navigable by 2030, possibly, though, as soon as the next decade. And of course, we've seen the last three years of the Northwest Passage indeed being navigable.
In terms of the implications of these changes, then, the report notes that there's likely to be increased demands for up-to-date navigational charts, marine weather forecasting, ice reconnaissance and forecasting, icebreaking services, search and rescue capability, and marine traffic surveillance, exactly the types of issues that have been highlighted by previous speakers.
I'll turn to the next slide and the important implications that climate change is going to have for infrastructure in the north. A large proportion of northern infrastructure relies upon permafrost to provide a solid structural foundation. Warming of permafrost, and certainly melting of permafrost, can significantly impact infrastructure performance and also maintenance costs.
In addition, permafrost is often critically important in terms of tailings piles and tailings contaminant impounds that depend on the maintenance of frozen conditions to ensure that contaminants are not released into the environment. Changes in permafrost stability are increasing the demands for the engineering community, who must now consider the influence of climate change on plans for mine closure and abandonment and design, and indeed this is happening.
Another important element of infrastructure change will be on land transportation systems. Currently ice roads are a very important component of northern transportation infrastructure, but they are becoming less and less reliable to get the important access to remote sites and will eventually have to be replaced by all-season highways.
Another important issue on infrastructure is the combined impacts of sea level rise and decreased sea ice cover, which is causing increased rates of erosion along much of the Canadian coast, and in several places this will lead to increases in costs of construction and maintenance for coastal infrastructure.
Moving to the fifth slide, I know that one of the key concerns of this committee is the impacts of extreme climate events and their implications for safety. Safety is certainly most critical within small remote communities, which particularly Inuit, and increasingly tourists, are starting to access. Extreme weather events and the unpredictability of sea ice conditions are leading to more hazardous conditions that put people at risk on both land and sea. As a result, search and rescue efforts are becoming more frequent, and people are finding themselves in more perilous situations. The implication of this is that communities need enhanced emergency response capability and plans and strategies, where necessary, to deal with this potential increase in risk.
One of the major findings coming out of the assessment is summarized in the sixth slide. It captures quite nicely for most Canadians that over the coming decade we're going to see the emergence of a less remote Arctic. There will be increased navigability of marine waters and the expansion of land-based transportation networks. This will bring opportunities for growth in a range of economic sectors, as well as important challenges for cultures, security, and the environment.
In conclusion, I'd like to emphasize that Canada's Arctic is a complex social, political, and physical environment. Natural Resources Canada continues to make a unique contribution to understanding this complex environment. It works collaboratively with a number of other departments, including DND, DFO, DFAIT, Indian and Northern Affairs, Environment Canada, and Health Canada, as well as territorial governments and communities, on issues of specific interest to the north.
Mr. Chair, I'd like to thank you once again for your invitation to appear before the committee. We welcome any questions you may have.