Thank you for your question. It's a very fundamental question.
Your two questions actually are interrelated, in that they both relate to measures that Canada should take and has not yet taken to exercise effective control over navigation through the various routes of the Northwest Passage. There are seven of them—I have distributed a map, though unfortunately you don't have it—but in future, in particular there will be passage through the two routes I am indicating.
Times have changed, with the melting of the ice. It is diminishing in thickness and in extent—it's a sort of two-component kind of affair—and immediately we have a tendency to jump to saying that navigation is going to become possible very soon and Canada can capitalize economically on it.
It's not as simple as that. Why? No shipping industry will take the risks involved—and I'm talking about money risks, in the end—unless they are assured that the coastal state, in this case Canada, has the appropriate infrastructure, which means all kinds of things that, by the way, Russia has completely on the other side. Not only has it 12 nuclear-powered polar icebreakers, but it has within its regulations the obligation imposed, if it sees fit, on foreign ships to use a Russian pilot once they get into difficult, ice-covered waters.
By the way, Russia concluded a six-year study—the research papers it produced occupy about four feet on my shelf—that ended about four years ago, paid for mainly, as I understand, by Japan. The eastern countries, China and Japan, are after all interested in the possibility of saving 4,000 or 5,000 nautical miles and going through what's called the northern sea route on the other side of the pole, and possibly ours as well.
But I repeat, to summarize my answer to your question, that the first part is yes, Canada can theoretically benefit considerably from the melting of the ice and the freeing particularly of those two main routes, but certainly the main one, the McClure.
On the other hand, with respect to your second question, the answer is, not until we can prove that we have the necessary infrastructure to protect foreign shipping.