I actually have some statistics going back a few years that show there has been a slow increase in the traffic we are seeing in the north. As my colleague from policy said, most of this traffic right now is from tourists; it's a destination. We do envision, though, that as the ice continues to melt you will see greater activity, but not necessarily in the Northwest Passage.
I'd like to explain a little bit about the Northwest Passage, what it is and what it isn't. What the Northwest Passage is to a mariner is a backcountry road with potholes. That's the best way to explain it. The northern sea route is a 400-series highway.
If you're not a mariner, you don't look at what's under the water; you just look at what's on top. As mariners, we look at what's under the water, because it's what stops us. And in the Northwest Passage, on the western side, it's very clogged. It's very dense with bergy bits, which are the small icebergs, about the size of a house. They float just above the surface of the water.
The problem is the climatic conditions in the north. You have high winds and poor visibility. So now those bergy bits that you could have seen in a flat, calm sea you can't see. They're as hard as a rock and they will sink a ship. That is the reality of the Northwest Passage, and that will be the reality for at least the next 20 to 30 years.
What we need is a pragmatic and staged approach on how we're going to deal with this. That's why I think things like the AOPS--the Arctic/offshore patrol ships--and developing the maritime domain awareness are so critical to building that front, so we know who's in our backyard and why. The other piece that's very interesting is that in Canada we have a 96-hour northern regulation that requires ships to report in prior to coming into our waters. It's mandatory.
We also have a series of other regulations that have actually been very effective: the Arctic Waters Pollution Prevention Act, the UNCLOS. These are all regulations that have been adhered to by nations.
So we're actually in pretty good shape when it comes to that piece. Now it's how to move on to ensure that as water continues to be more open in the north, taking a polar view, we're prepared for that. That's going to be over the next 40 to 50 years. It's going to happen; we just need to be prepared.
There will be additional investment required. I think AOPS is a very good start. These ships will last 30 years, and by then we'll be looking at something else that we need for the next gap.