Seven people, I think, contributed to it.
As a historian, I adhere to something called “Bercuson's iron law of history”, which is that nothing much ever happens until it does, and when it does, it usually happens very quickly, and it is never predictable.
I think when you're talking about long-term unemployment, poverty, degradation, etc., and the rising expectations that come out of the global revolution in communications, there's always going to be pressure on governments that are non-democratic and are pushing down the aspirations of the people in that society. There's always going to be pressure for some kind of social, political, quasi-military explosion.
I'm not an expert on Africa, but I see many areas in that part of the world where not only do we have ongoing military conflict right now, but we will continue to have it. My own problem with it is that I don't know the degree to which we are capable of intervening in it, and whether or not we ought to intervene in those parts of the world. It's not that some parts of the world are inherently more important than other parts of the world, but there are places where we can do better, where we can reach, where we have allies, and where we have the logistical support we need in order to operate.
We have to remember that we always need to operate in a coalition. We've never not operated in a coalition. I think in the War of 1812, as we all know, the Brits were here too. We've never not operated as part of a coalition. It's very important to make sure that the partners we operate with are ones who are there and who can deliver the logistical support and whatever else is necessary for us to operate.
That's part of the problem—we just don't have the capability on our own to plan, because we're not a prime mover in this. I think we have to decide more how we are going to respond when our allies move, which campaigns we're going to join and which ones we're not going to join.
It's probably not a good answer to your question, but other than trying to predict when the next Arab Spring will happen and where it will happen—which I don't want to do—that's the best I can do.