First of all, with regard to this foreign policy document, I've served in Russia, so I know Russia and I still speak the language.
It only underscored what I had always thought, even when I was there. I can tell you that with regard to what happened in Crimea, I actually wrote—and it must have been classified at the time—that it was going to happen, but Yeltsin didn't do it, and he was very heavily criticized. Putin has seized the opportunity to do so.
There are some concerns over how far Russia will go, but there is no question that a man who deplores the downfall of the Soviet Union and is putting pressure at the frontier is trying to establish as much control as he can on the “stan” republics—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,Turkmenistan, and the lot. It's a worry. It depends how you go about it, and if it's economic, but the way Putin does it is very worrisome.
Russia, in my view, in a perspective over the next five to ten years, will do more so because it is a waning power, and it's dangerous. It's a bit like a sun becoming a red star and in fact it multiplies its distance. I'm worried about that, because there is a sense that demographically and otherwise, other than its hydrocarbon capacity, it's not a full-service superpower. Because of that, I'm worried about its reaction, and I'm also worried about the Putin approach to it.
Suprisingly, I'm much less worried about the Arctic itself, because I think that's an area where there is no choice but to cooperate.