Each state campaigns for more effective NATO protection to counter attempts to unsettle internal security. In the wake of Russia's attack on Ukraine, the Baltic states formally requested that NATO deploy several thousand troops as a permanent deterrent. They're seeking a brigade-sized unit of approximately 3,000 soldiers so that every Baltic nation would have at least one battalion stationed in its territory.
The successful defence of any NATO member in deterring Moscow's many-pronged assaults will be a critical test for the credibility of the alliance over the next decade. If any NATO member is dismembered by Russia, then Moscow will not only exact revenge for losing the Cold War. It will also have in effect dismantled the western alliance.
The Nordic non-NATO members, Sweden and Finland, have also become increasingly concerned by Moscow's activities along their borders. Events in Ukraine in 2014 threw into sharp focus the absence of Nordic capabilities following years of drawdowns and a focus on crisis management operations instead of territorial defence. Northern Europe has been left dangerously exposed to military coercion at a time of mounting uncertainty. If regional stability was threatened because of Russia's actions, both Sweden and Finland could petition for NATO membership, thus expanding the rupture between Washington and Moscow and intensifying Russia's justifications for its regional aggressiveness.
In the event that Moscow decides to directly attack Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, in an alleged defence of its national interests, it will seek full military manoeuvrability in the Baltic Sea and seek to restrict NATO's response. In flexing its military muscles through large-scale manoeuvres, the construction of new bases, and frequent violations of the airspace and coastal waters of littoral states, Moscow has been aiming at several objectives.
First, the military buildup is supposed to demonstrate that Russia is again a great power and can create an environment of uncertainty in the Baltic and Nordic regions. Second, Moscow is testing NATO's political and military responses and adjusting its own tactics and operations in potential preparation for armed conflict. Third, in the case of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the Kremlin's military pressure is part of a broader multi-pronged offensive to weaken their governments, stir up social and ethnic conflicts, and demonstrate that NATO will not be able to defend them in the event of war.
East and central Europe have been divided throughout the Ukrainian crisis. That shows the leverage that Russia has gained in those countries. Russian officials focus on influencing political decisions, in each of the capitals, through a combination of diplomatic pressure, personal and professional contacts, economic enticements, and energy dependence. Reports regularly surface in Slovakia, Hungary, and other states that old comrade networks continue to operate between local politicians and Moscow. These are based on financial benefits rather than ideological or political convictions. It enables the Kremlin to exert political influence over certain officials and governments, challenges unified EU and NATO positions, and assists Moscow's international aspirations.