I think Russia's increased military spending comes out of its general view towards its position in the world. It wants to regain a superpower status. In so many areas, with the Russian economy declining, with population declining, and with so many challenges, they look to that as being one of their premier ways of showing that they are a force in the world. Yes, they may use NATO's presence in the Baltics as one of the reasons, and it may change the way that they position their forces, but at the same time, it's a much deeper problem than just Russia responding to what they call NATO's aggressive measures.
On November 1st, 2017. See this statement in context.