I, personally, don't see any advantage to Russia attacking Canada or the U.S. for the purposes of the Arctic, even as an avenue of approach. It's almost as if we have two Russias. When it comes to all things Arctic, they have participated, along with the other Arctic states, in the Arctic Council and so far have respected the UN Convention on the Law of Sea process vis-à-vis the continental shelf.
When you look at their amount of Arctic frontage, they've put all their GDPs in the Arctic basket. They've got three rivers the size of the Mississippi that go deep into Mother Russia. They want the Arctic to be a stable place where they can do business because that's where they're hoping to dig themselves out of a big deficit right now.
Yes, what they're doing in other areas is provocative. Yes, we have to keep attention on them, but just as we're in the process of refurbishing, resupplying, and improving our procurement, so, too, are they. Because of the Cold War, everybody tended to buy things at the same time, so they're all rusting out at relatively the same time. If you're prone to be a realist, of course any time you see an ally with anything military, it's an automatic security dilemma: it must be for nefarious intent. That may be the case, but there are other ways to see that as well.