Okay. Thank you.
Collectively, these new technologies have increased the lethality and potential of ways to apply force. Many are vast improvements over existing systems or have no preceding analogue. The technological developments are not strictly limited to military kinetic issues. They also affect our political, economic and social systems such as with cyber-capability. Perhaps one of the most problematic aspects of this emerging military reality is the lack of norms around these new technologies, which may result in greater instability.
The COVID-19 pandemic has further undermined public trust in the governance structures of western states, a fact that is exacerbated by the disinformation campaigns conducted by foreign powers. This is evident in major protests and civil unrest surrounding public health measures and participation in the violent far-right and militias rising in several countries.
Moreover, states' emergency and economic responses to the pandemic have saddled many of them with large debt loads that will require decades of austerity measures to eliminate, thereby limiting their ability to address domestic and foreign challenges. These challenges are particularly key for developing states, which are less well equipped to handle economic and political consequences of the pandemic. They face a weakened global trade system and a growing risk of political fragmentation due to the same forces that are affecting developed states.
In the pandemic's aftermath, many states will adopt a strong domestic focus to rehabilitate their economies and societies. This is evident in Canada's southern neighbour. The incoming Biden administration has already highlighted the immediate need to focus on domestic issues upon entering office. In foreign affairs, the president-elect was clear. He believes that diplomacy is a primary foreign policy tool of the United States, and tends to work through alliances and international institutions. While his administration will likely provide greater leadership than his predecessor's, this means that Canada and other allies will need to shoulder an increasing burden for international security, despite facing the same economic and political challenges as the United States. At the same time, we will be less able to rely on multilateral institutions that have suffered significant legitimacy and credibility issues as a result of the pandemic.
The Canadian Armed Forces are likely to experience greater foreign demands in the coming years, as weak states succumb to centrifugal pressures created by the difficult economic and political environment, and fewer developed states wish to assist in stabilization efforts. The nature of these conflicts poses significant risks for the Canadian Armed Forces. The proliferation of new technologies and capabilities will greatly complicate Canada's ability to intervene as well. The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh shows how relatively modest unmanned aerial vehicles can have decisive consequences on the battlefield. Particularly concerning is their low cost. Armenia and Azerbaijan are relatively modest economies that could easily afford these novel capabilities.
It is not just low-end conflicts that the Canadian Armed Forces must prepare for. We can observe that China has thus far weathered the pandemic in better condition than most other developed economies, posting a positive growth rate for the rest of this year. Meanwhile, the Russian Federation has continued to play a spoiler role internationally, despite suffering the pandemic's effects. Thus, the challenges of a great power conflict will likely become increasingly acute as the decade wears on.
To respond to these challenges, the Canadian Armed Forces must become increasingly nimble, and nowhere more so than in how it acquires and incorporates these new technologies. The 2017 defence policy white paper, “Strong, Secure, Engaged”, is far too rigid in this age of rapid technological development. Many of these systems require quick, iterative upgrades to maintain their fighting edge, which our government is not well organized to deliver.
The procurement system itself is severely hampered by an overly regulated oversight system that ensures project delays and cost overruns. These issues are exacerbated by the reality that successive governments have seen defence procurement as a vehicle to direct government money into domestic constituencies. This only causes further delays to procurements and eats into the defence budget. The temptation to further exploit defence procurement to these ends will be particularly acute given the clear economic challenges facing the country.
None of this suggests that Canada should act like a global policeman at the outbreak of violence; however, the trajectory of recent international relations, particularly after the pandemic, suggests that the world is becoming increasingly unstable, and that military force may be required to ensure this country's security and prosperity. Canadians must be clear-eyed to the challenges they face, and the country must possess the appropriate tools to address them.
Thank you.