National Defence Committee on Sept. 19th, 2024

[Dean Allison, Conservative, Niagara West, ON]

Thanks.

Go ahead.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

I'll take Mr. Allison's last minute.

Professor Arel, you talked about how Russian artillery has outpaced all of NATO combined. We also know that they're getting munitions from North Korea, and drones and missiles from Iran.

How far back are NATO allies and how can Canada do more to help supplement that production of artillery shells and rockets?

[Dr. Dominique Arel]

The gap is considerable.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Do you have a number? Can you quantify it?

[Dr. Dominique Arel]

With all due respect, I don't see any shift in Canadian policy on that front—zero.

There have been shifts in Europe, but it takes time to restart that kind of production. It was kind of the peace benefit of the end of the Cold War. NATO prepared for a war that never happened, except it happened 25 years later—a high-intensity, conventional warfare—without that kind of capability.

We, the NATO coalition, never thought that a war that looks like World War II in terms of how it's conducted on the ground—minus the drones—would occur again.

What we see in Europe is a variation in the political will to really engage in the medium and long term, because in the short term it's really difficult to match the—we have to say—remarkable capabilities of Russian production.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

We're going to have to leave the question and answer there.

Finally, on this round, is Mr. Powlowski.

[Marcus Powlowski, Liberal, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON]

You made an interesting statement. I may have written this down wrong, but you said, “when the Russian military will mutiny” or maybe you said, “will they?” It goes to the heart of the question: What evidence is there that this might happen? Prigozhin's march on Moscow, which was quite a surprise, was in fact a mutiny, but the Wagner force has been disbanded.

Certainly the Russian military command has shown a total disregard for their frontline troops, repeatedly throwing them into meat grinders to die, wave after wave. There's been talk of blocking troops on the Russian sides, preventing Russian troops from withdrawing. There are seemingly good reasons for the Russian troops to mutiny.

How likely do you think it could be and what evidence is there, other than what happened with the Wagner group, that it might happen?

[Dr. Stephen Saideman]

I think the Wagner group is a good example. The challenge of civil-military relations is that we very rarely know, right before something happens, that it will happen. When there's a coup attempt, you don't really know who's going to win because you don't know who's going to shoot and who's not willing to shoot. When it comes to mutinies, the challenge is that the Russian military is aware of the threat, so they put in place all kinds of systems to make sure that it doesn't happen.

Again, as you pointed out, the way the Russians are fighting this war is incredibly brutal on their own people. They have not provided them with adequate medical care, so the traditional ratios we're familiar with between killed and wounded in action are very different for them because they're not taking care of their wounded. When you send tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, of people into this environment, at some point it can cause a military to crack.

At what point? It's not clear. The longer this goes, the more likely it is, just because of the stresses it builds up. The more that people understand they are being misled, poorly led into battle, that your odds of.... For some people it is, “Are my odds better running at the Ukrainians or turning my rifle around against my fellow commanders?” There have already been many stories of Russian tanks being driven over Russian commanders—things of that nature—so there have been small acts. The problem, in any kind of mutiny, is the collective action. How do you get everybody to do it all at the same time? We saw this in other wars.

I can't tell you that it's going to happen on March 15 or that I have 100% certainty it's going to happen sometime in the next year. It's just that this is a threat the Russians have to grapple with, and it does distract them from the front lines if they have to put troops behind the front lines to threaten to shoot the people on the front lines. It complicates their war-making.

[Marcus Powlowski, Liberal, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON]

You mentioned the normal ratio between injured and dead, and that those numbers are different in the current conflict on the Russian side. Can you tell me what the numbers normally are, what they are now and where that those numbers come from?

[Dr. Stephen Saideman]

I can't be hard and fast on the exact specifics, but I will say that traditionally the number has been 1:3. For every one person killed in battle three have been wounded. The Americans and our allies in Afghanistan were very good about medical care, so that ratio is 1:10. For one killed there were 10 wounded. I think, at one point, the statistics we were getting from the Russian side—what we were inferring from what we could see—was 1:1, which is that for every one wounded one Russian was getting killed.

Again, truth is the first casualty of warfare, so we don't really know. However, ironically, we have a better sense of the Russian casualties than we have the Ukrainian casualties.

[Marcus Powlowski, Liberal, Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON]

I note another thing you said, Mr. Saideman, which I found a bit shocking. You suggested that our deployment of 1,600 troops in Latvia is not sustainable. We're a country of 40 million people. I say, “What? With 1,600 people, we don't have the resources to sustain that?” You mentioned the possibility of bringing over families and the fact that it isn't an attractive posting.

Do you want to comment more on our military readiness if we can't maintain 1,600 troops overseas?

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

That's a very good question but, unfortunately, he gave you seven seconds to answer it. You could possibly work it into a response because I think everyone in the room is interested in it.

That brings to a close our second round.

I know there's some enthusiasm for motions. We have about 50 minutes, give or take. We can do another round for 25 minutes and leave the final 25 minutes for motions. Is that an attractive proposition?

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

We're done at 10:15—aren't we?

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

I'm sorry, but yes, it's 10:15. Okay.

Assuming there's still the enthusiasm for motions, can we shrink this round to a three-minute round with three minutes each?

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Three minutes...? Geez.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

You can talk quickly.

I don't want to abuse witnesses. That's why we're trying to manage the time here. I know you all love the expression of democracy in committee meetings, but watching it is something not entirely edifying.

Let's do a three-minute round—

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Chair, it's three minutes including the Bloc—

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

What's that?

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

—and the NDP or one minute each?

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

They will get one minute each, yes.

Do you think you can you manage that? Okay.

Mr. Bezan, you have three minutes.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Just quickly, so Mr. Saideman, you talked about taking what we have, like tanks and armoured vehicles, and just giving them to Ukraine. Back in March of 2022, after the hot war broke out and the full-scale invasion, Conservatives called on the government to donate our surplus LAVs. Then we put in an Order Paper question. The government said it had 62 that were repairable and could be overhauled in 220 days and sent. It never happened. Now they announced, I think, 60-some LAVs are being sent for spare parts.

Wouldn't it have been better to send them two years ago, when they were still operational, than to leave them until they were completely unusable as fighting machines other than for spare parts for equipment they already have there? It would have saved lives—wouldn't it?

[Dr. Stephen Saideman]

I can't speak to the specifics of those 62 LAVs. Obviously, more in the hands of the Ukrainians sooner is better.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

You said take the old tanks we have. I think we're down to 56 that are still left here that can actually be trained on. A lot of them aren't fit for purpose anymore. You're saying donate them, let them use them, but you're not advocating that Canada get rid of its tanks—are you? One thing we've learned in Ukraine is that it's a tank war.

[Dr. Stephen Saideman]

I think some of our allies have made the decision that it would be better having them used to fight the Russians now than to fight the Russians later. The idea of giving them to the Ukrainians to win the war with Russia now is better than waiting five or 10 years for us to use them in Latvia. That is a difficult political calculation, but it's something we should take seriously.

I don't think it's going to happen, because it is a risky decision and it would make it difficult for us to train our tankers. Again, our military on a regular basis has revisited the tank decision of whether or not to have tanks. If our allies have tanks, is it that important for us to have them? It depends on how comfortable we are with relying on our allies. Allies can be more or less reliable. I've written a book about that. As long as we're fighting alongside the Americans, things are pretty good. If we're fighting alongside the Italians....

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

It's the case that historically Canada has always had the ability to pull out a full complement of armour, along with our army. It's the same as the howitzers, the M777s. Shouldn't we be replacing those and sending the rest we have to Ukraine and investing in new howitzers for Canada?