Evidence of meeting #132 for National Defence in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was russian.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Conservative
Don Stewart Conservative Toronto—St. Paul's, ON
You mentioned UNIFIL earlier. What's our commitment to UNIFIL?
MGen Robert Ritchie
Our commitment to UNIFIL is two individuals, and we also have two individuals who are under the United Nations disarmament observation group, UNDOF. One was in Damascus and has moved to Camp Faouar, and the other one is in the Golan Heights right now between Israel and Syria at observation post 51.
Conservative
Don Stewart Conservative Toronto—St. Paul's, ON
Again, with the changes in Syria, how do we view the strength of their military after the bombardments that we've seen from Israel in the last days?
MGen Gregory Smith
Our initial assessment is that it's largely evaporated, and as my colleague said, there's been heavy bombardment by Israel and other forces to dismantle extensive parts of the Syrian regime forces. We continue to monitor the new regime and what they've done, which so far has seemed to be quite moderate. These are very early days; this happened over the last weekend.
MGen Robert Ritchie
Mr. Chair, I just might add two broader implications.
One is that the Syrian development is going to challenge LH, the Lebanese Hezbollah, in terms of Iran's pushing supplies, equipment and technology to Lebanese Hezbollah in the Lebanon area.
The other is that we're watching Russia carefully. They had a base in Latakia. They had maritime vessels in Tartus. The maritime vessels have moved to sea, but we're watching their posture to see how they may adapt in the long term.
Conservative
Don Stewart Conservative Toronto—St. Paul's, ON
Thank you for that. My next question was about the Russian naval assets.
We understand, then, that Iran's influence has been weakened by the developments in Syria.
MGen Robert Ritchie
Mr. Chair, maybe I'll start and then let my colleagues jump in.
We've seen Iranian influence weakened on a few fronts. The first is in Gaza with Hamas. The second is to the north of Israel in Lebanon with Lebanese Hezbollah, and then the third is now Syria to their west, all of which are rolling back what could be layered support upon which the Iranian defence construct rests.
Liberal
Marcus Powlowski Liberal Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON
The big question with respect to Ukraine and Russia is what Trump is going to do, obviously. You talked about General Kellogg and his previous stance, which seemed to be to freeze the front lines as they presently are and hold off on allowing Ukraine to join NATO. I wouldn't have thought that this would be acceptable to Ukraine.
Powlowski is a Ukrainian name.
Has Canada contemplated or has NATO contemplated—I guess it could not be NATO—the possibility of bringing peacekeepers or using peacekeepers along the border between Ukraine and Russia? I would have thought that this would be the only kind of scenario that would make this acceptable, because it would deter a further attack from Russia. I would just say that what the Ukrainians would expect would happen in that scenario would be that Russia would just build up its forces again and in a few years take another bite of Ukraine. For this to be acceptable to Ukraine, there would have to be, I think, some sort of other peacekeeping.
MGen Gregory Smith
Mr. Chair, I've done peacekeeping. You need a political agreement between both sides before tactical people can get in the middle and create peace, and we are a party to conflict. We have been contributing extensive weapons.
That being said, we, like the rest of NATO, are watching what's going on there and monitoring it. Trust me: NATO is making lots of plans, because they also share that risk that in five years, what Russia has proven to date could happen again, maybe not against Ukraine but to other allies, including some where there are thousands of Canadians right now.
We're paying attention to that, and it's good to be in alliance with 31 other countries.
Liberal
Marcus Powlowski Liberal Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON
I don't know if you'd tell me whether it was true or not, but is the Canadian Army drawing up contingency plans to possibly use Canadian troops as peacekeepers?
MGen Gregory Smith
Mr. Chair, again, peacekeeping is a very specific thing for a very specific situation. We did it in the nineties. There's a monument in downtown Ottawa.
We have been contributing weapons to Ukraine since the further invasion occurred in February 2022. Normally, as a peacekeeper, you are “neutral”, so tactically, it would be very challenging. As has been noted, number one, would some of the things being suggested be satisfactory for Russia? Equally, would they be satisfactory for Ukraine?
There would have to be a lot more water under the bridge before we decide this is even a possibility.
Liberal
Marcus Powlowski Liberal Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON
What is your assessment of how North Korean troops are doing in the Kursk region? It seems as if the Ukrainians have hit them a number of times. How many do you figure are still left—12,000?
MGen Robert Ritchie
We don't have precise numbers. What we are attuned to is this: Once the 12,000 were set, they were the subject of intense observation and targeting by Ukraine to try to sever the linkage between the DPRK and Russia.
We continue to monitor the situation. What we are seeing is the DPRK breaking down their contributions. We're seeing them now employed in smaller groups within larger Russian units. Incidentally, they are alongside many Russian soldiers who are coming from the far east and forming aggregate organizations, which makes it more challenging to try to identify where DPRK troops are actually serving.
Liberal
Marcus Powlowski Liberal Thunder Bay—Rainy River, ON
Briefly, on the new Syrian leadership, what's your assessment of their current links to al Qaeda? Certainly the new leader has shown some indication of wanting to take a moderate approach. I think Canada would surely like to see a democratic, moderate state in Syria. It could go either way.
What are we doing to encourage that?
MGen Gregory Smith
I'm going to give this a try, and maybe my Global Affairs colleague would also like to.
Again, this happened over the weekend. Nobody was really expecting this. We are watching it. As I said, initial signs are very promising. You didn't see massacres as they started taking retaliation against regime forces. We're seeing heart-rending things about the prisons, etc. That's all ongoing right now, but initial signs are very positive.
That being said, is there any tradition of democracy in that country? I'm not a historian in that sense. However, initial signs are looking good.
I'll throw it over to my friend here.
Executive Director, International Security Policy and Strategic Affairs Bureau, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development
Thanks. I could add a few points.
Throughout the conflict, although our embassy has been closed in Damascus since its beginning, Canadian diplomats have had contact and exchanges with members of civil society in Syria. They have obviously been engaging with those contacts throughout the weekend and the past few days. We'll continue to liaise and understand what the situation on the ground is from their perspective, use that to build our information about how things are going and work with allies and partners in terms of how, eventually, we can support a transition to what we hope is a better future for Syrians.
Liberal
Mario Simard Bloc Jonquière, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Major‑General Smith, in your opening statement, you talked about Russian disinformation, and I'm curious about what that disinformation looks like.
It's easy to see that the goal is to undermine people's trust in institutions. It may also be a way of altering our impression of the conflict in Ukraine.
I wonder if it has any real consequences, though.
In Canada, are we seeing shifts in public opinion due to some kind of Russian disinformation? How is that information spread, generally? What does it look like?
MGen Gregory Smith
Mr. Chair, I will speak on behalf of the Canadian Armed Forces and National Defence for all Canadians.
Disinformation is targeting the Canadian Armed Forces. I'll give you an example.
Recently, an officer in Europe died of natural causes. That information was used against the Canadian Armed Forces. There was disinformation about how the officer was in Ukraine and was killed by the Russians, which is false.
That is just one example of how information is manipulated and altered to mislead the public and attempt to sway public opinion against the Canadian Armed Forces.
Bloc
Mario Simard Bloc Jonquière, QC
Is it working? I sometimes see awful things on social media about the Ukrainian conflict. I wonder if this is having an impact on public opinion, perhaps turning it against Canada's support for Ukraine.
Do you have any data on that kind of thing?
MGen Gregory Smith
Mr. Chair, I don't have any data on that.
Again, I'll speak on behalf of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces for the general public.
There's a chain of command. It is up to the chain of command to disseminate accurate information and dispel these lies. This is certainly something we need to pay attention to. We have to watch out for that kind of thing in all of our communications with Canadian Armed Forces personnel, and we have to discredit those fake stories.
Liberal
NDP
Lindsay Mathyssen NDP London—Fanshawe, ON
There's a great deal of tension arising in terms of nuclear threats. The United States has committed $1.7 trillion to modernizing its nuclear arsenal. Russia is introducing the revised nuclear weapons doctrine, launching new nuclear-capable ballistic missiles into Ukraine, so we're sandwiched in the middle, basically, of these two massive nuclear superpowers.
We've talked a little bit about our own Arctic sovereignty. However, in this context, in March, there's going to be the third meeting of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Will Canada be sending delegates to this meeting, and is GAC currently considering joining the TPNW as a signatory?
