Yes, I agree with that assessment.
The one thing I'd say is that I think the west has a lot of leverage here, particularly if we are going to provide potential aid to the new Syrian government and if we're going to delist it as being a terrorist group. The Russian influence here is simply that they have some military assets on the ground.
The one other thing I would say is that this is a loss of prestige for Russia, but the maintenance of these military bases is key for their destabilizing presence in Africa and also for having diplomatic presence with gulf states and with the Israelis. The Israelis did not provide significant aid to Ukraine at the start of this war, in part because of Russia's presence, and the gulf states have not been necessarily all that helpful when it comes to clamping down with sanctions on Russia and other efforts. They may be more accommodating should Russia be fully evicted from the region.