Thank you very much, Madam Chair.
I would like to thank the committee and the clerk for inviting me. It is always a great pleasure and an honour to contribute to the ongoing work and discussions of the House of Commons.
I would just like to say at the outset that I am not a specialist on Russia. My main field of research is Canadian foreign and defence policy, especially in the Arctic, and I've been working on these issues for 15 years now.
My statement will be based on three main points that I will try to make in four minutes.
At the end of February and the beginning of March, I received many calls from journalists, mainly from the francophone media, who were expressing their concerns on Canada's vulnerability in the Arctic and the possibility that the international tensions caused by the war in Ukraine would have an impact on the Canadian Arctic.
The first thing that I have to say on this issue is that I am optimistic. I do not believe that Canada's military interests in the Arctic are threatened, whether it be in the short or medium term. I do not believe that the hostilities and tensions with Russia will have a direct and immediate impact on Canadian interests in the Arctic.
Russia has not staked any claims to Canadian territory. In my opinion, Russia has no strategic interest in claiming Canadian territory. If ever that were to happen, it would be an attack on Canadian territory as per article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. If it ever came to be, we'd be worrying about much more than just the Arctic.
In the short and medium term, however, Russia does represent a threat to Canada, especially in terms of disinformation and cyber attacks. I don't have any major concerns when it comes to the Arctic, however.
My second point, which is linked to the numerous calls I fielded from journalists, is to remind committee members that Canadians are very much concerned with issues related to the Arctic. It is a question of national identity. To be Canadian is to love the Arctic and to worry about it, so much so that any hint of a threat, even if it is far away and up to a certain point made up, will whip up public opinion. The committee should be aware of these strong feelings and potentially disproportionate reactions.
That brings me to my third point. If you were to ask me to give advice or direction to the Canadian Armed Forces and the Department of National Defence on the Arctic right now, it would be to carry on doing what the CAF and the department have been doing for the past 20 years. Their main concern should be the impact of climate change in the Arctic and the increased human activity that will follow. Tourism, economic activity, support to the communities, all this will increase over the next decades. The Canadian Armed Forces are usually the main tool used by the government to act in a region as isolated as this one, which means that there will be more calls upon the armed forces and more pressure on them.
In conclusion, last week you heard the Chief of the Defence staff who reminded us that the Canadian Armed Forces are lacking recruits and that they had a lot of difficulty increasing their capacity to provide the services expected by the government. This pressure will continue, even more so because there is a demand now in southern Canada for these services also. I think that is the main challenge that we will face over the next few years, and it directly concerns the Canadian Arctic.
Thank you, Madam Chair.