National Defence Committee on April 21st, 2023

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

I call this meeting to order.

We have two items of business before we get to our witnesses, colleagues. The subcommittee report was distributed to you yesterday. Can I have someone move it?

[An hon. member]

I so move.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Is there any discussion?

(Motion agreed to)

We also need a short budget for this meeting, which may or may not go over to a second meeting.

Can I have somebody move that study budget?

[An hon. member]

I so move.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Is there any discussion?

(Motion agreed to)

With that, we will deal with items of business. At the end of the second hour, I want to bring you up to date on where we are with a variety of small issues, so I may pause the meeting about five minutes early.

With that, we have witnesses who have become quite familiar to this committee, and we're very thankful for them. We appreciate all of you making yourselves available to the committee.

Kerry Buck is a senior fellow of the Canadian Forces College and the University of Ottawa graduate school of international affairs, and is the former ambassador to NATO.

From the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, we have Ihor Michalchyshyn, as well as Orest Zakydalsky, who is senior policy adviser.

All of you are familiar with this committee, so I don't need to give you any instructions. We'll start with Ms. Buck for five minutes.

Go ahead, please.

[Kerry Buck, As an Individual]

Thank you very much, Chair.

I thank you very much for the opportunity to appear before this committee in person, which is a novelty for me now.

I'm appearing as an individual and I'll speak to you entirely from a personal perspective and provide a personal analysis based on my 30 years of experience in international security.

I'll focus on two aspects of the war: first, how the war has evolved over the past year and where I think we are now, and second, what the challenges or the risks are in months ahead for Ukraine, NATO and NATO allies like Canada.

The past 14 months of the war have been a surprise in many ways. Many commentators, myself included, were surprised that President Putin would choose to launch a full-scale war against Ukraine. I could not understand why it was in Russia's self-interest to do so. I do think that one of the reasons Putin launched the war was that he thought NATO was weakened and that the west would have neither a strong nor a unified response. Putin was surprised. The reaction of NATO has been more robust, more coherent and more supportive of Ukraine than Putin expected and than I hoped for.

The war on Ukraine, as wars go, is still relatively young. Let me walk through how I see the evolution of the war since it first began in February 2022. It's been through a few phases.

The initial phase, as we know, when Putin and many western commentators thought Russia would do well militarily, do it rapidly and even be able to replace President Zelenskyy's government very quickly, was short-lived, which was another welcome surprise, and I'm glad.

The next phase was marked by a period of Ukrainian successes and rapid gains made possible by the resolve of Ukrainian troops, the inspirational Ukrainian leadership and the mobilization of Ukrainian citizens. Without taking anything away from Ukraine's extraordinary effort, western support was also a crucial part of the successful outcome. In particular, the training effort after 2014 by Canada, the U.K. and others was key, as was the early policy shift to provide lethal weaponry.

The third phase of the war started around 10 months ago, and we're still in it. Russia started to concentrate its troops and artillery to the south and east of the country, focusing on consolidating and expanding its control of the Donbass and on creating a buffer around Crimea.

At the time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he expected the war to last a very long time, and I'm afraid he was right.

Here we are today, 14 months after a brutal Russian attempt to invade all of Ukraine, with millions of Ukrainians displaced, tens of thousands of casualties and umpteen thousands of civilians murdered. Ukrainian critical infrastructure and cultural heritage have been destroyed, countless war crimes have been committed, and Russia has been under heavy sanctions, which are, in a way, some of the heaviest ones imposed on any country since World War II.

The fighting continues, and a new counteroffensive is being launched in what promises to be a grinding ground war, I think, along a 600-mile front. It looks like this conflict will last a long time.

Where do I think the international community, NATO and allies such as Canada need to focus in the months ahead? There are a few areas.

First, the maintenance of international support for Ukraine will be crucial, both in terms of political support as well as logistics. From my perspective, President Putin has more people to throw at the war in Ukraine and less to lose. He's shown a disregard for the fate of Russian soldiers and a propensity to use them as cannon fodder. A long, grinding war of attrition is in Russia's interest and in fact may be their strategy. They've said as much publicly, hoping to see support from the west start to crumble.

What do NATO and NATO allies need to do? NATO needs to put in place a longer-term strategic plan to provide weaponry and other support to Ukraine. For the past year, the rhythm of support to Ukraine has been marked by President Zelenskyy asking for something specific and then allies moving—sometimes quickly, sometimes more slowly—to find what is needed, to provide the training and to get it into theatre. This is different from a strategic plan that ensures a steady flow of predictable support. To achieve this allied defence, production and procurement need to be stepped up. Ukraine is burning through ammunition and weaponry faster than the west can provide it.

Most crucial, Ukraine's military needs to meet NATO standards. It provides a significant deterrent to Russia going forward. During the war and after the war, we need to work to wean Ukraine away from Soviet-era equipment and toward full NATO interoperability.

In terms of political support for Ukraine, I'll just say that this will take a lot of continuing diplomacy. We're already starting to see some NATO allies put positions on the table that are different—Hungary and Turkey—but it's not just about NATO; it's about creating broader worldwide cross-regional support not only to isolate Russia but to put pressure on Russia. That will involve talking to some countries whose positioning is perhaps less palatable to us, but they will be useful interlocutors with Russia.

Finally, another question that I expect will be high in the agenda of the Vilnius NATO summit is Ukraine's future relationship with NATO. There, what I expect is a very vigorous debate but no final conclusions. Will Ukraine be offered formal security guarantees? Will there be a clear path to NATO membership, with concrete steps, or will it be something interim until allies see where the war ends up?

I'll leave it at that point. In the question-and-answer period, we can look at some of the other areas in security and defence where Canada could help.

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you.

From the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, do we have Mr. Michalchyshyn?

[Orest Zakydalsky, Senior Policy Advisor, Ukrainian Canadian Congress]

Thank you. I'll split my time with my colleague, but I'll begin.

Again, thank you for the invitation to be here before this committee. As you know, the UCC is the voice of Canada's Ukrainian community. When we talk about the war, I think that, as you know, it's important to understand that the war and the invasion started in 2014 and that we are in many ways just talking about the escalation and the full-scale invasion that started just more than a year ago.

We do want to point out, as you know, the tremendous generosity and kindness of Canadians in supporting the Ukrainian refugees who fled and who have come to Canada, and the support for those who have ended up in Europe as refugees.

We're here to talk about the latest human rights violations, which we feel are coming out as the next step in the evolution of this full-scale invasion. As you've seen in the media, no doubt, Russian human rights organizations have been posting video testimony from mercenaries from the Wagner Group that is fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The videos are very disturbing. I have quotes from them in the transcript, but I don't really want to read them to you. You know that they involve the murder of children, the murder of civilians and testimony that these people have gone in and murdered everybody in households, apartments, etc. There also has been a very gruesome video posted of beheadings and of other acts of violence on Ukrainian prisoners of war, and the Office of the General Prosecutor of Ukraine says they have over 80,000 examples of war crimes and crimes against humanity being committed by the invading Russian army.

Mass rape, torture, murder, forced deportation and mass abduction of children are some among the litany of crimes that Russia has committed and is committing every day in its war against Ukraine. Our point is to say that these are not rogue actions of rogue soldiers. They are not random. They are deliberate, systemic and planned. We believe that Russia is a criminal state that should be isolated further from the international community. In keeping with the direction of the Parliament on unanimous action to recognize Russia's acts in Ukraine as an act of genocide and to list the Wagner Group as a terrorist entity, we urge your support as we continue to argue that Russia must be designated as a state sponsor of terrorism and that Russian diplomats must be expelled from Canada.

[Ihor Michalchyshyn, Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, Ukrainian Canadian Congress]

I'm going to talk a little bit about the things that Canada and allies should be and can be providing to Ukraine to help Ukraine win this war.

The aid provided to Ukraine by Canada and allies has indeed been impressive. Coupled with the Ukrainian people's incredible courage and fierce resistance to Russia's genocidal war, the aid has allowed the Ukrainian armed forces to first stop the Russian advances, reverse many of the early Russian gains and then liberate hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens.

However, as Ukraine plans a spring and summer counteroffensive, it's crucial that both the military and economic support being delivered to Ukraine be increased substantially.

First, Ukraine needs more heavy weapons than we and our allies are providing right now. These are tanks, armoured personnel carriers, air defence systems, longer-range missile systems, naval defence systems, artillery and the ammunition for these systems.

Next, Ukraine needs fighter jets to protect its skies and continue to deny Russia air superiority. Several of our allies—for example, Poland and Slovakia—are delivering MiGs to Ukraine. Canada can play a key role in assisting with training Ukrainian pilots on NATO jets and in convincing allies of the need to supply Ukraine with more fighter jets.

Finally, the security of Canada, our European allies and Ukraine requires a sustained commitment to increasing production and procurement of weapons and ammunition. We need to make multi-year investments to make sure we have the stocks to deal with current and future Russian aggression. Once Ukraine defeats Russia in this war, Russia will remain an enemy of Ukraine, an adversary to NATO and a threat to peace in Europe. We need to be prepared.

Finally, I want to stress the urgency of what we believe Canada needs to do. The longer we and our allies wait to deliver to Ukraine the tools the Ukrainians need for victory, the more Ukrainian soldiers and civilians will be killed, wounded or injured and the larger the price the Ukrainians must pay.

The Ukrainian Defense Contact Group, which is the defence ministers of some 50 countries supporting Ukraine, is meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany today to discuss the next steps in supporting Ukraine's defence of freedom. It is our fervent hope that Ukraine's allies, with Canada key among them, will deliver to Ukraine the tools that are needed to win.

I will stop there. We are pleased to take any questions.

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you.

Mr. Bezan, you have six minutes, please.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Good morning, and welcome to all of our witnesses. It's great to see all of you again.

I want to dig in a little bit more, because both of you touched on the procurement situation.

There was an announcement this morning of 40 sniper rifles being purchased to be supplied to Ukraine, which are coming out of Winnipeg from PGW. I can tell you that this sniper rifle procurement was asked for last year by the Ukrainian government. The procurement was completed by the company and the rifles were completely built and purpose-ready by the end of last summer. Here we are almost a year later before it has finally been announced that the rifles are going to be moving.

When we look at procurement in general.... Ambassador Buck touched on the need for more ammunition. In terms of the facilities and capabilities here in Canada, we have General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems just outside of Montreal, which can build purpose-ready ammunition, including the 155-millimetre rounds to go into our M777 howitzers. Ukraine has four of them, as well as M777s from other allies.

Do you think we need to actually start moving a little quicker on getting this procurement fixed?

What's the big holdup, from the standpoint of the former NATO ambassador and the community of the UCC? What are some of the impediments to actually getting ammunition, sniper rifles and other military materials procured for Ukraine?

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Go ahead, Ambassador Buck or Mr. Michalchyshyn.

[Kerry Buck]

Absolutely.

I know that Jens Stoltenberg and other NATO allies have recognized, coming out of NATO meetings, that production absolutely needs to be ramped up and it needs to be sped up.

The challenge is, as I've said, that Ukraine has been, for very good reasons, burning through ammunition and weaponry faster than it can be supplied. What's happening now is that gaps in the defence production sector have been identified.

For procurement, again I'm speaking to this personally and from outside. I've seen procurement work and I've seen procurement work very badly. In my personal wish list, I would love to see a review of procurement processes. We need a full-on, bipartisan review so that we don't have reversals of decisions, which I've seen personally over the last couple of decades.

[Ihor Michalchyshyn]

Just quickly, we agree that the current system isn't good enough. We've heard that industry is looking for multi-year commitments, so that's something to look at. We were in Kyiv in May and June, and the Ukrainian defence minister was pleading with us to go and speak with you as parliamentarians in the Canadian government. Kyiv is littered with burnt-out Russian tanks. You can see the scale of the equipment that is being destroyed every day by the Ukrainians and by the Russians, and it's well beyond anything that we could imagine. I think we just have to....

Again, I don't know the solution to procurement, but the current system is not fast enough, and it cannot be acceptable that it takes a year to get these kinds of things to Ukraine when soldiers are dying every day.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

I have another question for the UCC.

We know that there is very little in the federal budget in 2023 for Ukraine from a defence standpoint. There is $200 million that was announced for the Canadian Armed Forces, supposedly to help replace the Leopard tanks that were donated.

Was the UCC and the rest of the Ukrainian community as disappointed in this last budget as I was?

[Ihor Michalchyshyn]

We were concerned and surprised about the amount that is in the budget for defence in Ukraine, which is, as you said, $200 million for the Leopard tanks that had been previously announced.

We had submitted—and we're happy to share it with the committee—our pre-budget submission, which, as Mr. Zakydalsky outlined, was the significant need for systems, and large numbers of systems, for Ukraine.

We are hopeful that our commentary following the budget and in the defence review process will illuminate the point further. We are hearing that there is the possibility of more being announced beyond the budget, as it was last year, but we are concerned that the budget didn't send the signal of strong support for Ukraine in the year ahead.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

When we look at this letter that came out from a number of leading Canadians, including former cabinet ministers, retired military leaders and academics, we see that they talk about how bad defence spending has gotten in Canada, how we aren't able to step up and do the task at hand. Then you can combine that with the leaked Pentagon documents on the Discord app.

We know that back-channel discussions have been taking place, especially at the NATO level among diplomats, so my question is to former ambassador Buck. Based upon your time in Brussels and the discussions that are taking place today with a lot of your former colleagues, would you say that the comments made in the Pentagon documents are reflective of what you're hearing in diplomatic circles here in Ottawa today?

[Kerry Buck]

The challenge is that I haven't seen those documents. However, from what I understand is in them, I agree with some of the criticism and I really disagree with some of the other criticism.

The first main message is that Canada really is a strong NATO ally. We have enormous respect there. We've contributed in one way or another to every NATO operation, and I believe in that.

The second thing is that over decades of underinvestment through successive governments, we aren't keeping up our end of the NATO defence spending bargain. We're getting close to the bottom of the barrel and we need to do more.

I signed that letter too.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Madam Lambropoulos, you have six minutes, please.

[Emmanuella Lambropoulos, Liberal, Saint-Laurent, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

I'd like to begin by thanking our witnesses for taking the time to be with us today.

My questions are primarily for Ms. Buck.

You've recently written that as the war drags on, western unity and resolve may falter along the way as we go forward. I'm wondering what some of the fault lines are that you've noticed emerging in the western alliance and what role Canada can play in helping to maintain unity.

[Kerry Buck]

I think that NATO unity has been rock-solid from the beginning, but there are some fault lines showing, as you mentioned. Some allies like Turkey and Hungary are starting to take positions that could harm NATO unity and could harm NATO unity on Ukraine, and I think that quiet, constant pressure inside NATO is needed to stay the course. Sometimes that will break out into public pressure.

I think it will be very important to see when Turkey reverses its position and allows Sweden into the alliance. I am convinced that it will happen, but it has not happened soon enough for my liking.

It is a question of quiet diplomacy, honestly, and we have been successful at that at NATO over the years, but there is some more diplomacy that is needed. As I said, international political support for Ukraine is about cross-regional global support, and I really have to applaud the work by Ambassador Rae on our diplomatic missions around the world. They have been convincing states from all regions of the world to vote at the UN General Assembly, for instance, to isolate Russia, and a smaller number have agreed to put and maintain sanctions on Russia, but this is going to need constant care and feeding, so whenever I call for more defence spending, I also call for more spending and more investment in our international diplomatic and civilian security tools as well, because that is part of the bookend to maintaining support.

[Emmanuella Lambropoulos, Liberal, Saint-Laurent, QC]

Thank you very much.

In a way you answered it, but just in case there is anything else you see, are there weaknesses in the alliance's ability to address the conflict going forward? You mentioned that it could potentially be a very long war and that it will continue for a long time, so what are some of the weaknesses you see going forward on the alliance's side?

[Kerry Buck]

I think the primary weakness is a practical, logistical one right now around provision of weaponry and support to Ukraine. I am less worried about maintaining political support; I am more worried about keeping the steady flow of the right weaponry into Ukraine, so I would hope that the Vilnius summit will come out with a strategic plan that has a longer-term approach to providing a predictable supply of weaponry rather than that kind of stop and start we have seen over the last year. I think that is going to happen at the summit; at least there are some indications from public pronouncements from the Secretary General.

[Emmanuella Lambropoulos, Liberal, Saint-Laurent, QC]

Thank you very much.

To the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, I appreciate your interventions today and I understand that the community here is most likely living a very difficult moment and has been for the last year and a half or so.

You've mentioned a few of the areas where you would like Canada to do more, and that includes training Ukrainians on Canadian and NATO jets. Can you maybe be a little more specific on what role you would like Canada to play in this war going forward?

[Ihor Michalchyshyn]

As we said, I think that there are two areas. One is the increased supply of weapons and the other is increased training.

As Ambassador Buck mentioned, Ukraine is moving to a NATO-standard army, and Canada is very well suited to train Ukrainians. It has been doing so since 2015. Over 30,000 Ukrainian troops have been trained, and frankly, that has made an enormous difference for Ukraine's army, so anything we can do to increase that would be helpful. However, right now, in the next weeks and months, the supply of weapons is crucial. We stress the urgency of that. There are millions of Ukrainian citizens suffering under Russian occupation who need to be liberated, and the Ukrainians can do it, but they need the weapons from us.