Evidence of meeting #56 for National Defence in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was nato.
A recording is available from Parliament.
9:25 a.m.
As an Individual
To win the war, I'll go back to weapons and ammunition, bandaged together.
We're at a really critical point right now. I think that NATO has done admirably in supplying Ukraine, but there's a need to do more and do it faster, absolutely.
9:30 a.m.
Conservative
Cheryl Gallant Conservative Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON
We know that there are charges that can be raised for war crimes. What about the people who influence and encourage the genocide in Ukraine? Are there any international laws that could hold the people who are doing this to account?
9:30 a.m.
Senior Policy Advisor, Ukrainian Canadian Congress
There are several processes going on that are led by Ukraine and that Canada has been supporting.
First is the war crimes and genocide prosecution through the International Criminal Court. The second process that Ukraine is pursuing, which I'm sure many of you have heard about, is the prosecution for a war of aggression. That's where there is still ongoing discussion on how Ukraine can lead that process, but through an international criminal prosecution process. It's part of the investigations that are happening. We know that many countries have sent investigators—
9:30 a.m.
Conservative
Cheryl Gallant Conservative Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON
Will the influencers be charged as well as the people committing the crimes?
9:30 a.m.
Senior Policy Advisor, Ukrainian Canadian Congress
I hope so. I mean, I think that the evidence is there from speeches and from a media perspective in terms of who was encouraging, supporting and boosting the committing of these crimes and how they're being portrayed as great Russian victories.
9:30 a.m.
Liberal
9:30 a.m.
Liberal
Bryan May Liberal Cambridge, ON
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
Thank you all for being here and sharing your time with us this morning.
Madam Buck, during your intervention, I was reflecting on how we've come to where we are from the early days before the war even started, and all the speculation as to what was going to happen. There were three theories that were quite prevalent that were shared with us and were also present throughout the media.
The first was that nothing was going to happen. A lot of that actually came from within Ukraine. This was just sabre-rattling. The second was that it was going to be similar to Crimea, in that they would blitz in, redraw the border around the two Donbass provinces and call it a day. The third was that it would be over in a week. They'd drive right through Ukraine as liberators, and it would be over within a matter of days.
Obviously, none of that happened. Nobody that I heard of was talking about a protracted war.
My question to you, and to the panel as a whole, is to ask how our thinking has changed in terms of the intelligence-gathering around Russia's capabilities and, as importantly, Ukraine's capabilities, now that it's being supported so heavily by NATO.
Is there a different strategy for how we're thinking about this? I know the question of what's to come has been asked already. I know no one has a crystal ball, but over a year ago, everyone seemed to have a crystal ball and had very strong opinions on what was going to happen. I'm curious. Everyone we've talked to has been very quiet about speculating.
I'm going to put you guys on the spot and ask how this is going to resolve, or is it going to continue for many years to come?
We'll start with Madam Buck.
9:30 a.m.
As an Individual
How has our thinking changed?
The orthodoxy when I was at NATO was that Russia had invested significantly in revamping and modernizing its military since 2008 and that they would be one of the more impressive fighting forces in the world. We discovered that wasn't as true as we had thought. They were substandard. They were incapable of mounting that kind of complex and robust invasion of a country.
Part of the reason I thought it didn't make any sense for Vladimir Putin to choose this was the question of how he was going to hold Ukraine afterward. I don't understand the calculus, unless it's only and all about maintaining his power at home and being afraid of a prosperous democracy that's improving economically right next door in Ukraine in a way that he hasn't been delivering to his own citizens, and can't. It kind of makes sense then.
How have we shifted in thinking about Russia's capabilities? The other thing that's happened is that he started some limited conscription that didn't go well politically for him, so now they have a charm offensive. They're trying to have quotas and they're going to regions outside Moscow to get more and more soldiers to throw at the problem. They're clearing out prisons.
He doesn't care if his soldiers die. At some point, that'll come home to roost for him politically, but it hasn't yet. He can keep throwing young Russian men's bodies at this problem for quite a long time to come, which is too bad. It's too bad for the Russians.
Where it will end? There are different scenarios. I don't see many scenarios in which he is ousted from power. Whatever scenario it is, we'll have to collectively deal with Russia somehow, in a way that recognizes that they're right next door to Ukraine and will be forever, and that they're part of Europe. At some point, peace talks will have to happen, but I firmly believe it has to be President Zelenskyy's call when the time is right, and it can only happen when Ukraine has had such sufficient territorial gains that Putin is forced to the table.
9:35 a.m.
Liberal
Bryan May Liberal Cambridge, ON
Gentlemen, we've left you about 30 seconds or less, I think.
I don't know if you have any thoughts on that.
9:35 a.m.
Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer, Ukrainian Canadian Congress
I'll just say that the course of the war, in large measure, depends on what we are capable of providing to the Ukrainians. If they run out of artillery, they can't fire artillery.
9:35 a.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal John McKay
Thank you, Mr. May.
Ms. Michaud, you have the floor for two and a half minutes.
9:35 a.m.
Bloc
Kristina Michaud Bloc Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
We're talking a lot about Ukraine and how Canada can help. Russia really didn't expect such a robust response from Ukraine, and the war has been going on for more than 14 months, although, as has been mentioned, this conflict started long before that, back in 2014. So I wonder how the Russian troops are doing, if they are running out of steam, and if they are having supply problems.
Ms. Buck, you mentioned that this situation would probably last a long time, but I am wondering how, to your knowledge, things are going on the Russian side.
9:35 a.m.
As an Individual
We all saw the pictures of the Russian tanks and other vehicles mired in mud because they hadn't bothered to change the tires in the two years in storage before they deployed. I think it's worse on the personnel front. As I said, with a combination of the Wagner Group and others, they're really stretching their conscription efforts into places that aren't sustainable for them, so they're doing very, very badly, but they are a very large country with a lot of people. They have a lot of weapons in reserve. They're not good weapons, and they'll be running out of cruise missiles at some point, but they have enough stuff to keep grinding for a while in a grinding ground war of attrition in the south. That will cause very much damage to Ukraine and a little less damage to Russia, because Putin is a dictator and doesn't bear the political costs of doing that as much as other leaders might.
9:35 a.m.
Senior Policy Advisor, Ukrainian Canadian Congress
As incompetent and ill-equipped as they are, they are still a significant fighting force that we should not take lightly. As I was relating to you earlier, the brutality and the scale of the impact in Ukraine of the Russian forces, whether it's Wagner or the Russian army, should not be forgotten in the stories of their technical incompetence.
It's the scale. It's the continued, relentless dispatch of these people, of these soldiers, and, as we said, the emptying of jails to create Russian brigades. These people are not professional soldiers, and they are murdering Ukrainian civilians. That is their instruction. That is an explicit strategy by the Russian military.
9:35 a.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal John McKay
Thank you, Madame Michaud.
You have two and a half minutes, Ms. Mathyssen.
9:35 a.m.
NDP
Lindsay Mathyssen NDP London—Fanshawe, ON
Throughout the war, Russia has used food as a destabilizing weapon. Can you talk about the impact on the ground on food stability and on Ukraine's food supply chains?
9:35 a.m.
Senior Policy Advisor, Ukrainian Canadian Congress
Sure. As you know, there have been several attempts to have these grain deals brokered by the United Nations and others. Ukraine's role as the supplier of the global south, particularly the Middle East and African countries, for wheat, sunflower oil and other essential—
9:35 a.m.
Bloc
Kristina Michaud Bloc Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia, QC
I have a point of order, Mr. Chair. We are no longer receiving the French interpretation.
9:35 a.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal John McKay
Have we lost interpretation?
Interpretation says it's okay. It's back on.
9:40 a.m.
Senior Policy Advisor, Ukrainian Canadian Congress
Ukraine's role as a supplier of essential agriculture for the global south has I think been illuminated by this latest invasion. What can Canada do to help there? Ukraine is trying to engage these allies in the global south, but that's a difficult task to do in the middle of fighting a war.
Again, in talking to countries that have been affected by the war, countries where food prices and shortages come up, we need to make that non-linear argument and connect the dots for people that prices are going up because of this war.
9:40 a.m.
NDP
Lindsay Mathyssen NDP London—Fanshawe, ON
Exactly as Ms. Buck was talking about in terms of finding those maybe potentially difficult allies or tougher allies and convincing them of this overall, it would be a really good connect in that way. Using food stability would be a good way to connect.
April 21st, 2023 / 9:40 a.m.
Senior Policy Advisor, Ukrainian Canadian Congress
Yes. I think many people didn't realize how dependent they were on Ukrainian agriculture to ensure their stability and prosperity. I think rebuilding global security starts with supporting Ukrainian agriculture.
9:40 a.m.
NDP
Lindsay Mathyssen NDP London—Fanshawe, ON
I saw a lot of nods there, so I'll give the rest of my time to you to add to that.