Oh, oh!
Evidence of meeting #69 for National Defence in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was china.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Evidence of meeting #69 for National Defence in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was china.
A recording is available from Parliament.
4:50 p.m.
Some hon. members
Oh, oh!
4:50 p.m.
Representative, Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Canada
There's no fixed definition for the one China policy. We need to talk in more detail about what direction we are going to go in terms of revising the one China policy. The current one China policy is certainly not something that we welcome seeing in Taiwan.
4:50 p.m.
Bloc
Christine Normandin Bloc Saint-Jean, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thank you for being here, gentlemen. We really appreciate it.
I would like to hear your thoughts on statements made in the United States recently. The director of the CIA said that President Xi has given the order to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. At the same time, the Pentagon said that a military invasion or blockade of Taiwan would be unlikely to succeed, especially a blockade since it would give the allies time to gather the necessary forces to support Taiwan.
Do you agree with the Pentagon's assessment that an invasion of Taiwan would not be successful?
4:50 p.m.
Representative, Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Canada
Thank you very much for the question.
The reason the CIA or the Pentagon would name the year 2027 as the year that China is possibly going to invade Taiwan is that this is actually what was said by China. The year was used by China as a landmark year because it will be the 100th anniversary of the PLA in China. They want to make 2027 the year for full modernization of military power, meaning that by 2027, they will be able to fight a war with first-rate armies. It will not necessarily be only a regional war, but a global war. This is the Chinese objective.
An objective is one thing. Whether they are really able to reach that kind of status is another.
For Taiwan, what I can share with you is that there is very close co-operation between the militaries of Taiwan and the United States. We have co-operation not only with the military forces, but on the other side of the military community. For example, we have intelligence co-operation as well.
Decision-makers in Taiwan don't have the luxury of assuming that China is not going to invade Taiwan, but we don't look at any specific year for doing that. As a matter of fact, we think we need to speed up as much as possible, so there are all kinds of military reforms ongoing in Taiwan now. There's also a reform program for our reserve system. We're not looking at any specific years for a possible war to happen.
Our hope is to keep peace. We don't want war to prove that China has made the wrong calculation. The way we build up our strength is peace through strength. We don't want war, but we are preparing for it.
4:55 p.m.
Bloc
Christine Normandin Bloc Saint-Jean, QC
Thank you.
More specifically, the Pentagon's analysis is that an economic blockade of Taiwan would give Taiwan's allies time to prepare assistance and prevent a military invasion of the country. Do you agree with that analysis?
4:55 p.m.
Representative, Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Canada
I think you are referring to a military exercise right after the visit of then U.S. House speaker Nancy Pelosi. It happened in August of last year. Yes, that military exercise was the biggest to date. The Chinese military exercise at that time was also different from other exercises they have conducted. The naval blockade was perhaps the most alarming at that time, because it was new.
However, in the time of a real war, a military blockade of Taiwan is perhaps not the most effective.... I've heard this from different sources. A blockade would give allies time to come and help Taiwan. If China's purpose is really to have a very quick war before the international community can come to Taiwan's rescue, a naval blockade is not going to work. Again, that is a technical part of military warfare.
As I said, in Taiwan we are hoping to get more international support. We call the diplomacy we have in Taiwan a preventive diplomacy. We want the whole world to come and let the Chinese know that whatever kind of invasion they have in mind, it will be just too costly for them to bear. We don't want a war to happen.
4:55 p.m.
NDP
Lindsay Mathyssen NDP London—Fanshawe, ON
Part of your discussion about China's rapidly increasing nuclear capabilities and stockpiles made my heart race a bit faster, but then you supplemented that with comments about peace through strength and how that is your strength. That's what you hope for. Do you still believe there's room within all of that to have conversations around nuclear non-proliferation?
4:55 p.m.
Representative, Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Canada
For Taiwan, when we look at this, we know how the Chinese leaders, Chinese academia or military generals discuss the prospect of unification. Let me elaborate.
The Chinese vision of unification with Taiwan is a picture of a stronger China, a China that they call the rejuvenation of a great power. If and when they know that this unification is going to be at their great expense, they won't be ready to do that, and all the more if we let them know that indeed it's going to be very costly for them.
For Chinese leaders, unification is a way to make China greater, not weaker. Right now the whole world is telling Chinese leaders that if they use force against Taiwan, they are not going to get a stronger China after unification, so that is not what they are pursuing.
You've heard a lot about what we say in Taiwan, why we have confidence. This is one thing we are confident about. Of course, you can argue that a dictator may think about things in an irrational way. If that is the case, it's difficult to carry on a very reasonable discussion, but I am telling you that right now we don't see an invasion from China as an imminent threat.
5 p.m.
NDP
Lindsay Mathyssen NDP London—Fanshawe, ON
You mentioned the increase of PRC aircraft in your airspace and how that has its impacts.
In terms of cognitive warfare, when we visited there, we talked about social media, cyber-attacks and so on. It was mentioned that there were a million a day. Have those also increased? Do you have numbers on that?
5 p.m.
Representative, Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Canada
Yes. As a matter of fact, we have real-time military activities to report the military activities in the Taiwan Strait. They only started in September 2020. Before that, we didn't see much activity from the Chinese military, including the air force, but after that, we decided we should make it public because China likes to have covert actions. They are more accustomed to not doing things under the attention of the world. When we decided to make it public, the pressure was on them.
Whenever there is a military exercise or incursions of warplanes or warships, we make it public in Taiwan. You can read that. There is a website for our Ministry of National Defense. You can see it every day.
Their intention for now, as I said, is to affect our presidential election, but there is also one intention that has a much longer-term effect. They want to change the status quo. They want to change the status quo of the median line in the Taiwan Strait. This is how we come to very much appreciate Canada as well. You send your naval ships and warships to transit the Taiwan Strait.
China does not see the Taiwan Strait as international water, but through your naval transit in the Taiwan Strait, you are defying what Beijing claims, which is that the Taiwan Strait is not international water, so that is very important to us.
5 p.m.
Conservative
James Bezan Conservative Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thank you for meeting again with us, Ambassador. It's always good to see you.
With lessons learned from the war in Ukraine and Russia's invasion, I know that Taiwan is taking this to heart and looking at what needs to happen for Taiwan to deal with Chinese aggression from Beijing. We were very impressed with the indigenous military equipment that Taiwan has already been able to build. You mentioned last session about the fighter jets that you guys were able to test and get into production in 500 days. We saw your capabilities with air defence, as well as with missile systems. You have your own homebuilt warships.
Looking at the daily reports that come in and geopolitical updates in the region, when you hear about 55 PLA aircraft flying around Taiwan, and then on top of that, Beijing sends multiple naval ships into your economic zone, what are you doing to counter the subsurface threat? We always talk about air and we talk about on the water, but I'm sure with the proliferation of submarines that China has been building over the last decade, you guys haven't forgotten about that either.
5:05 p.m.
Representative, Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Canada
I am not a military officer, so I can offer you the knowledge only to the best of my ability. We are developing our own submarine forces. As was reported, the first one will be completed next year. For the first batch of submarines, we have a contract for eight. That's going to be a very important part of our self-defence.
For now we are working with our allies—the U.S. and Japan more than anyone else—on surveillance of undersea activities. We know that the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea are not deep enough for submarine activities. This is why China will not cave in on its activities in the South China Sea: The South China Sea is deep enough to hide the submarines it built in Hainan province.
If they have only one submarine base, it's easy to monitor. You know how to do it. They need another alternative. They think the eastern side of Taiwan is most ideal. The eastern coast of Taiwan is very close to a very deep seabed in the Pacific, so we don't take it lightly when they say that they have ambitions for Taiwan.
5:05 p.m.
Conservative
James Bezan Conservative Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB
The threat is actually not in the Taiwan Strait. You need to protect the Pacific side.
You mentioned the assistance you've been able to get in co-operation with the United States and Japan. I understand that just in these past few days, Japan didn't provide a defence attaché but did provide a military adviser—a retired officer from the Japanese navy, I believe. Can Canada be doing more, in working with Taiwan, to deepen military co-operation and the relationship between our two defence forces?
5:05 p.m.
Representative, Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Canada
We'd certainly welcome more co-operation between our militaries. An enhanced military-to-military relationship is always very positive for us, especially as we are like-minded partners. We also take into account the fact that Canada is also trying to speed up in building up its own naval forces. The fact is, according to your IPS—your Indo-Pacific strategy—you have already added one more warship in East Asia, in the Indo-Pacific area. That there are three ships transiting the passage in the Indo-Pacific area is very meaningful for us. We appreciate that very much.
There is something more that we can do, because, as I said—
5:10 p.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal John McKay
The more is going to have to be left for another question. Thank you. Maybe we should get you back for the procurement study.
5:10 p.m.
Voices
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5:10 p.m.
Liberal
Jennifer O'Connell Liberal Pickering—Uxbridge, ON
You mentioned that China doesn't have allies except those, I think, built out of necessity. I want you to talk about that.
You also mentioned the rejuvenation of a great power. Correct me if I'm wrong, but part of that strategy is to invest in certain developing nations to build that necessity into a future use or allyship.
Given that fact and China's economic situation, do you see the extension of those tentacles into other nations and countries in regions like Africa, South America, etc., slowing down? If so, do you see an opportunity for countries like Canada to help some of these nations develop so they don't become so reliant on China's investments?
5:10 p.m.
Representative, Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Canada
Thank you for giving me this opportunity to elaborate on what I said earlier. What I meant is that if you have a vote in the UN system, of course you are going to see China getting a lot of votes. That's not what I meant by “allies”. These are countries that are aspiring to get assistance from China, especially through investments in “one belt, one road”, the belt and road initiative. They are looking to China for help, but they are not going to help in return, in terms of geopolitical confrontation. I think I'm actually answering the questions from that aspect.
China has Xi Jinping. Mr. Xi wants China to become rejuvenated, a great power, by the year 2049. He said that at the 19th National Congress, because again, 2049 will be the 100-year anniversary of the establishment of the PRC. These landmark years mean something for the Chinese Communist Party, but a week is a very long time in politics. If you are saying there's something you want to achieve in 2049 or 2027, it is all a political slogan.
We are watching what is happening on a daily basis. As I said in my opening remarks, the fact is that China is having economic difficulties in a way that was not expected by China itself and was not expected by the world. The world somehow has become very accustomed to China's being like a locomotive, a driving force of global economic growth, but that is not going to happen. You are going to read this more and more from the international media. The international media sometimes take a rosy view of China because they themselves have huge investments in China. They are hoping China can be revived, but it is not happening, as we can see from the current data.