Thank you very much.
Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and members of the panel. We really appreciate this opportunity to be here with you today. My name is Melissa Blake and I'm the mayor of the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, which tends to throw some people off. I'm also the mayor of Fort McMurray, which more people tend to be familiar with. We represent 80,000 people up in that region, and on behalf of them, it is a pleasure to convey to you some of the experiences we've had.
What I'll do is just start into my dialogue and tell you that we've really come a long way since our early European traders to the region noted that natives were using a tar-like substance to waterproof canoes. From that aboriginal population that has called Wood Buffalo home for eons, to the fur traders who plied our pristine waterways 300 years ago, today we're now home to the world's energy giants, and it has been a remarkable transformation. It is a compelling story as well, but that's going to have to wait for another day.
I've come today to address the key question engaging your committee: is the development of the Athabasca oil sands sustainable? My perspective today comes from our experience as the municipal bedrock on which the oil sands development is based, and that basis includes a strategic look at three pillars of oil sands development sustainability, including economic, environmental, and social pillars.
But to get straight to the point, we embrace the knowledge that within the municipal boundaries of Wood Buffalo is contained the energy security for Canada and North America. Alberta's oil sands established reserves amount to about 177 billion barrels, behind only Saudi Arabia. But our known reserves, ultimately recoverable with current technology today, amounts to 311 billion barrels, which is by far the largest source worldwide. If we extrapolate Alberta's total reserves in place, including oil sands that will need new technology for future recovery, the number skyrockets to 1.7 trillion barrels.
The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo, working with the regional issues working group, produced a business case in 2002 and again in 2005. In this brief account of economic impact, I'll refer to data either contained in the original, or updated from that work. To begin recovering just a small percentage of oil from these reserves, the capital investment had topped $37 billion between 1996 and 2005. Between 2006 and 2011, which is just a five-year window of opportunity, industry expects to invest an additional $56.6 billion conservatively. That would bring the 15-year total to nearly $100 billion.
The development, of course, has tremendous spinoff. It will generate 240,000 new jobs in Canada by 2008, and although we anticipate 60% of those will fall in Alberta, or about 144,000, that means there are nearly 100,000 new jobs that will ripple across Canada for oil sands development. What we expect as we go forward is that those numbers will continue to build in future years. For perspective, we produce about one million barrels of crude oil today. That additional $56 billion would get us to two million barrels per day, and projections or the vision for Alberta looks to be on tap for three million and five million respectively in 2020 and 2030 potentially.
From that business case in 2005, the revenues that flow to the federal government, using only a $30 oil scenario, amount to about $69 billion over 20 years, and certainly that is conservative with higher world oil prices, which are included in the 2005 business case. All of this investment, along with accelerating development and revenue creation, has stretched our municipal challenges to past capacity. Six years of explosive growth at more than 8% per year far exceeds that of any other major municipality in Canada.
What that means to the citizens in our region in practical terms is that we're spending $160 million for a new waste water treatment plant that's going to open with an immediate need for expansion, and we're currently exceeding our production capacity. We have $40 million for an expansion to the water treatment plant, which will reach capacity next year; $107 million for a MacDonald Island recreation centre redevelopment; $24 million for new landfill; and $51 million for a new RCMP facility, and that budget, in fact, started at $30 million for two facilities, not just one.
We experience significant cost escalations on most of the projects we face. We have the most expensive rents in Canada and the most expensive housing in Alberta. It's $483,000 now for an average-price single family home in our region. We also have problematic road congestion, with a strong need to increase capacity and routing operations, and it means we suffer a host of other serious growing pains as well.
So when thinking about economic sustainability, based on the current pace of oil sands development, Wood Buffalo's ability to deliver core infrastructure needs in Fort McMurray has been stretched beyond our means to keep pace. Without additional help, the simple reality puts into jeopardy the sustainability of oil sands development.
On the second pillar of sustainable oil sands development, there's a focus on environmental realities and stresses. Our environmental conscientiousness, as oil sands development accelerates, is routed in the country's billowing concerns over greenhouse gases driving climate change, clean air, and clean water. In that regard, the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo supports the Federation of Canadian Municipalities' submission to the Minister of the Environment, addressing the planning and design initiatives on clean air and climate change.
We know that northern climates such as ours are particularly vulnerable to rapid degradation from climate change and pollution, and that's why Wood Buffalo has taken an active stance as an environmental steward for our region. We know that the province of Alberta has primary jurisdiction over environmental standards and practices, and we know that the federal government has significant jurisdiction over waterways and climate change in our region.
Our part in the equation guides us to invest heavily in improving water quality for our communities and population, and we enthusiastically endorse LEED Canada certification. Our next residential community, called Saline Creek, will set new standards for sustainability, incorporating measures from innovative design to the application of energy alternatives.
We're committed to all measures and efforts designed to keep northeastern Alberta's airsheds as clean as possible. In that regard, we support the efforts of our region's environmental watchdogs, and we know that we need to do more, increasing our level of environmental vigilance.
This brings me to the third pillar of sustainable oil sands development that overlaps with economics and challenges our municipality beyond its current capacity. It is squarely grounded in accumulated social impacts, resulting from years of sustained high growth in oil sands development.
Currently we are gripped in a losing battle to address the cumulative effects of this explosive expansion in oil sands resource development, driven by accelerating global demand.
Here's what that means to our 80,000 citizens and residents. Six years of explosive population growth, at more than 8% per year, far exceeds that of any other municipality in Canada. In fact it is more than three times the rate of the national population growth, and it's more than twice the rate of the next fastest growing municipality in Alberta. Another six years of growth at this rate, which may be a conservative estimate, means that the population for Fort McMurray could nearly double again by 2012.
The social stresses this creates are widespread. Our housing deficit grows with each additional approved oil sands project that drives the workforce to our region. Supply is limited by a provincial timetable in releasing crown land surrounding Fort McMurray and by an available building workforce. Demand for housing in all categories, from affordable to the market norm, continues to sore. Costs are the highest in Alberta, and likely in Canada. New housing subdivisions will quickly cover land that can be serviced at a reasonable cost, which pushes us into areas where servicing costs will also soar, due to topography and muskeg conditions.
We are adding RCMP resources constantly to provide the requisite public safety. Our health care system needs a 100% increase in on-site doctors, a new funding formula, a new continuing care facility, and more than 150 additional staff. We need more schools, teachers, and education resources. Also our social programs, services, and facilities don't meet the current needs for child care, addictions, family violence, and homelessness. When you stop to consider this picture, I think you quickly realize that our cup is indeed overflowing.
To fund current needs, Wood Buffalo has had to increase its debt limit to two times the total revenue, with the province's approval, as compared to other municipalities at one and a half times. Yet in a province that prides itself on its debt-free status, our debt level exceeds the tolerance limit imposed by regional council and is now the highest in the province—three times higher than the debt level currently carried by the cities of Edmonton and Calgary. Council does not believe this is prudent financial management, but our needs dictate that we must proceed under these circumstances.
As responsible stewards of our municipal mandate, council has undertaken a number of measures—some mandatory, some typical, and some that are creative and unusual—to address our unique challenges and our community shortfalls.
I'll finish today by pinpointing some ways that the natural resources committee and the federal government can make a major difference overall in supporting our municipal effort to sustain this major economic engine for the entire country.
First, the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo needs a new, formal, and recognized working framework with the federal government. Therefore, Wood Buffalo requests a tripartite regional development agreement with federal and provincial governments to plan for and share required investments in future growth, including infrastructure and services in Wood Buffalo.
Second, the municipality needs $1.9 billion for infrastructure investment to address capital requirements for basic community services over the next five years. Going forward from there, a sustaining infrastructure fund is needed. Therefore, we request immediate special funding instruments from both the federal and provincial governments to help bring existing infrastructure and services to the standard that other municipalities enjoy. This outcome would recognize the region's unique characteristics, its strategic importance to Canada's overall economic strength, and its key role in delivering energy security for the country and the continent. In addition, we request the federal government's creation of a long-term infrastructure fund for use in this aggressively growing region.
Third, the municipality is keenly aware of the need to accurately forecast and monitor the effects of cumulative socio-economic impacts from the accelerated pace of oil sands development. This is an outcome that currently suffers from a significant vacuum in terms of predictability, joint commitment, and resources. Therefore, we request the federal government's cooperation in creating and maintaining a system to analyze and monitor the cumulative socio-economic impacts of oil sands development, including verification of predictions and support for regular public communications.
Finally, at least for today's purposes, the municipality advocates for the development of a much closer relationship with the federal government at the level of elected officials and with the public service. We therefore request the federal government's ongoing support and engagement in a bilateral intergovernmental relations program, based on common interests, outcomes, and opportunities flowing from oil sands development and operations.
That concludes my presentation to your committee today. I do thank you again for this opportunity, and I look forward to your questions and any support that you're able to give.
Thank you.