First of all, Mr. Chairman, as an energy analyst, I believe the term “forecasting” should be prohibited, because all we can do as analysts is provide scenarios. It is up to the politicians to make choices on the basis of scenarios. This is not to avoid your question, but it makes a significant difference in the perspective of scenarios.
All the credible climate change mitigation scenarios call for a substantial reduction on the demand side. So far, no country has brought in such a policy. This is the most crucial point to address.