Yes, I'd like to begin.
Thank you very much. It's a pleasure to be with you here today. I certainly appreciate the invitation.
My name is Sean Whittaker. I'm the vice-president of policy for the Canadian Wind Energy Association. Today it's my pleasure to give you a brief presentation on the status of the ecoENERGY program, particularly as it pertains to wind.
I have a slide deck, and it'll be distributed afterwards to members of the committee.
I am going to give my presentation in English. However, if you want to ask questions in French, please do not hesitate.
Just to start off with an overview of the current situation of where wind is in the world, there are about 160,000 megawatts of wind turbines installed globally. There are close to half a million people who work in the wind industry in manufacturing, in development, and in support services.
An interesting statistic is that in 2009, in both Europe and the United States, more wind capacity was added than any other new electricity-generating source, so it's the number one newly installed electricity-generating capacity in Europe and the United States.
Here in Canada we've had similar kinds of growth curves over the past six years. We've had a tenfold increase in the number of megawatts installed. We now have about 3,400 megawatts in the ground, which provides electricity for about one million Canadian homes, and that satisfies pretty close to 2% of Canada's electricity demand.
It's interesting to note that in the midst of the current global economic recession, in 2009 we saw record installation years in both Canada and the United States. That shows that even under difficult economic times, the drivers and benefits of developing wind are evident enough that growth has continued unabated.
Looking forward, wind certainly has a very promising outlook. Looking globally, it's been estimated quite conservatively that there will be about $1 trillion invested in the wind industry globally between now and 2020. That support for wind takes really two forms. There is direct support with things like the ecoENERGY program and, in the United States, the production tax credit. In the United States they are also pursuing renewable portfolio standards, so direct incentives. At the same time, there are also indirect incentives, which are essentially carbon pricing, regulatory regimes to establish and put a price on carbon. And the two of them work hand in hand.
In Canada, looking forward, certainly the growth prospects are extremely good. If you take all of the commitments the various provinces have put in place and add them up, we come to about 12,000 megawatts by 2015. But we really think that's just scratching the surface of what's possible. CanWEA has put forward a vision whereby wind would satisfy 20% of all of Canada's electricity demand by 2025, and this is a figure that's already been attained by countries like Denmark. If we get there, that will represent about $80 billion in investment, about 52,000 jobs, and GHG reductions of about 17 megatonnes per year.
Turning our attention to the matter at hand, to the ecoENERGY program, quite frankly, the ecoENERGY program by almost any measure was an extremely successful program. To be honest, wind would not be where it is right now if the ecoENERGY program didn't exist. It was a very effective program at kick-starting the industry and in really driving growth across the country. In fact, it was the victim of its own success. The funding was supposed to last until March 2011, but all funds for ecoENERGY were fully committed one year in advance. So no new projects as of March 2011 will be able to receive any ecoENERGY funding.
In the 2010 federal budget, unfortunately, new funding was not provided for the ecoENERGY program, so it's assumed that, as I said, after March 2011, no new projects will receive ecoENERGY funding.
Minister Prentice has indicated that the government's view is that the best way forward is to support renewable energy through regulatory frameworks, particularly around the introduction of carbon pricing. That's certainly something I'll talk about a little bit later.
At the same time as all of this is happening, the United States, through the U.S. Recovery Act, has introduced incentives that are about three times the size of ecoENERGY. Not only are they three times bigger, but they are slated to last until the end of 2012. So they have an incentive that they've just put in place that's three times bigger and lasts much longer. While Canada's commitment to ecoENERGY is declining, the U.S. commitment to their incentive is actually increasing quite rapidly.
It brings one to the basic question of why ecoENERGY is important for wind growth in Canada. There are really four basic reasons. One, it's a bridge to a future where there's a price on carbon. I think everyone recognizes that within the next three to four years we are going to see a North American approach to carbon markets. We believe that once in place, carbon markets will essentially close the cost gap between wind and conventional or fossil technologies. EcoENERGY basically serves as a bridge to get us from where we are now to that time when the carbon markets exist. But if that incentive is not in place when carbon markets come in, we risk being caught flat-footed.
The second reason is that ecoENERGY really helps Canada to compete for wind investment. Quite frankly, North America is seen as the next great opportunity for wind. We compete directly with the United States for this investment, and as I said, they are trending up in their support and we are trending down. This presents competitiveness issues.
The third is that ecoENERGY is a stimulus with net benefits to the federal coffers. GE Financial Services did an analysis of ecoENERGY, and they actually found that for every $1 the federal government invests in ecoENERGY, it gets about $1.30 back in terms of tax incomes and associated revenues. Over its lifespan you've got a 5% positive internal rate of return on ecoENERGY, so it's a good investment.
And fourth, it supports the government's objective of getting 90% of generating in Canada from non-emitting sources by 2020. There are three ways you're going to be able to get that: switching to natural gas, energy conservation, and wind.
Although ecoENERGY is and has been an extremely important element of supporting wind, it's not the only area where we believe the federal government can support wind energy. There are really three that I'll highlight here. The first is providing clarity with respect to carbon markets. We really do believe that once the carbon market is in place, you don't need a direct incentive for wind any more; it'll cover the cost gap. But there's an interest in having the government be proactive about looking at what that market is going to look like and providing the kind of certainty in terms of the basic rules of the game that will be in place once a carbon market is established. That provides a clear signal and certainty for investments, so that we can continue to attract investment to Canada.
The second area where we feel the federal government can play a very key role is in providing support for new transmission lines. I remember being at a conference once and they said if you love wind energy, then you have to at least like transmission. The provinces haven't made serious investments in transmission in the last 30 years, so we have to do it anyway. To make that transmission wind friendly, the incremental cost is actually extremely low. But it's a huge cost for the provinces to bear, and they are looking for support at the federal level to assist in what it would look like. Is that an east-west grid? It could take many different forms.
The third area is in terms of supporting R and D across the provinces. One of the most obvious areas is looking at what the economic impacts are of integrating large amounts of renewables into the grid. You can't do it on a purely provincial basis. You have to do it on a pan-Canadian basis. So that's an area where federal support would be welcome.
Also, there's a document that just came out. It's called the Wind Technology Road Map, an excellent document that Natural Resources Canada brought to the fore, and it provides a whole slew of recommendations on R and D actions the federal government can take.
Before closing, there are three myths I just want to address. They come up frequently, and I thought to open it up in the spirit of discussion, I would address them here.
The first myth we often hear with respect to wind, and particularly around the discussions on ecoENERGY, is that wind is significantly more expensive than conventional generation. It's important to understand that new conventional generation is much more expensive than the conventional generation of 20 or 30 years ago. We don't see the days of 3.5¢ for a kilowatt hour hydro-electric any more. New hydro developments are coming in north of 10¢ a kilowatt hour. Fossil fuel-fired plants, obviously, are increasing in price as fossil fuel prices go up, so in general we see cost trends going up. At the same time, cost trends for wind are coming down. And the remaining gap between this is covered once there is a price on carbon.
The second myth is that wind needs 100% backup power. We've found that the variability of wind is greatly reduced through geographic dispersion and forecasting. If you talk to any utility that has any amount of wind on their grid, they will say that the cost of backing up that wind is not 100%. In fact, it's less than 10% of the generation costs of wind. That comes from experience.
The third myth is that wind is the solution for Canada's electricity needs. We've always contended that wind is a part of a balanced energy diet going forward. It works very well and needs other forms of generation. Hydro is a particularly good complement, with 60% of Canada's generation.
In closing, ecoENERGY has been an incredibly successful program, but with its expiry Canada will be extremely hard-pressed to compete with the U.S. for global investment. It represents a huge opportunity to stimulate investment in manufacturing, provide benefits to rural communities, and meet the government's objective of 90% non-emitting generation by 2020.
There are lots of other ways the federal government can support wind: clarity on carbon markets, support for R and D, and investments in transmission. But in all these cases we really need to act very quickly if Canada is going to get its part of the growing global wind energy boom.
Mr. Chair, thank you very much.