Thank you very much for having me today.
I'll start by saying a few words about energy security and the extent to which this topic really is an energy security topic, and then talk a little bit about strategy and tactics around the climate and environmental concerns of the oil sands.
First, on energy security, there are very serious and real energy security concerns in this world. These range from the concentration of the remaining easy oil in the Middle East and the security concerns that come from that to the loose nuclear weapons around the world to the European dependence on natural gas from the Soviet Union. But I think in a Canadian context there really aren't that many energy security concerns that are interesting.
I think the ultimate reason we're having this hearing today, and the reason for the focus on oil sands, has very little to do with energy security. The oil sands and related things like the oil sands, which in some ways you would say includes coal to liquids, are things that produce in principle essentially unlimited supplies of hydrocarbon fuels for the transportation sector at relatively low operating costs but very high capital costs. And those are things that are very important for being able to provide hydrocarbon fuels in the long run but have little to do with energy security, because they can't swing their supply quantities very quickly.
I'll say a few words about strategy and tactics that I hope will help to separate out some of the conflicting claims that you hear about the oil sands or that you heard in the last session.
One frequently hears the industry state that the oil sands aren't particularly worse than conventional oil. Gord Lambert in the last session said that studies were increasingly showing that they were about the same as conventional oil, for example, on life-cycle greenhouse gas and for a variety of other topics. You hear very strong concerns on the other side from the environmental community.
I want to speak to what I think is going on underneath that. I think some of the things the industry says are quite correct. The oil sands are not the greatest environmental disaster on the planet. By many measures, they're only a little bit worse than conventional oil. On greenhouse gas emissions, they're clearly worse.
Just for the record, I have set up, from expertise at Carnegie Mellon University and elsewhere, one of the most serious academic efforts, working closely with industry, to examine the oil sands life-cycle emissions.
I do not believe the claim that they are about the same as conventional is a fair or correct claim, or supported by evidence. It is true, however, that they're not ten times worse. On a well-to-wheels basis, they're maybe 20% worse or something like that, and on a point-of-production basis, they are worse by a factor of maybe two or more.
I think it's also fair to say that some of the concerns--for example, about water contamination--are overstated. There may be some water contamination problems, but at this moment they don't appear to be all that serious.
The climate problems, though, are very serious. The reason that large environmental groups, including large environmental groups from outside the country, are targeting the oil sands has a strategic core that is completely sensible and justified, and, contrary to the comments we heard last, in my view is completely in the interests of Canadians.
In tapping into the oil sands, we are tapping into one of the world's largest carbon stocks. Tapping into it commits us technologically to enormous future carbon emissions. The principal carbon problem is not the carbon emissions from production, it's the carbon emissions from use, and those carbon emissions are very serious.
I'll give you one sense of it. Some of you have probably heard too much about climate models and may be doubtful, but climate models are not the only reason. Although they're a reason that goes back, actually, 100 years, that gives us a lot of confidence about the kind of climate problems we face, and the scientific basis for concern, but they're not the only basis.
Fifty-five million years ago we had a natural release of carbon at the Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum of about, in round numbers, 1,000 gigatonnes of carbon, similar to what humanity may release this century. The results were dramatic. It was one of the largest mass extinctions in the fossil record. The climate changes were simply stunning. We didn't have an advanced civilization at that point. We didn't have cities on the coastline. We didn't have an agricultural system acutely attuned up to the current climate. But if we had, I think it's fair to say that the results would have been pretty damaging.
The amount of carbon in the oil sands alone is a quarter of what it takes to do that, roughly. There is something like 250 gigatonnes of carbon. So it is completely sensible and legitimate and strategic for the large environmental groups to want to stop access to that resource.
In my view, their strategic concern is not to clean up local production, because that's not the underlying fundamental concern—although, in the tactical sense, that's what they say. There will be lawsuits about their ducks, which I don't think is really a very serious problem. Ducks are a serious problem, but the ducks dying in tailing ponds are much less important than the actual impact on wildlife from land use changes or the ultimate impact from climate change.
But the large-scale climate changes that are entailed in accessing that carbon resource are large. The strategic view of the large environmental groups—and I've worked with some of the larger groups in the U.S. and in the world—is that it makes sense not to access that resource. That means to shut them down, and that means that the real focus of those groups is not to clean up but to end. I think it's important to have that clearly in one's mind.
Now, we in Canada and we in Alberta have separate interests, and we have to think about balancing these interests. I'm perfectly aware that my salary comes ultimately from the oil wealth in this province, and I don't advocate an immediate shutdown. But we do have to be clear-eyed about the fact that we cannot keep producing this carbon forever and expect to have a stable climate.
I think the security concern, the economic security concern, comes from the risks we bear in committing ourselves substantially to an economy tied too tightly and too solely to oil sands extraction. At some point, whether Albertans like it or not, there will be serious regulation, and when that happens, people in my town of Calgary will be walking away from their homes unless we have done serious work to diversify beforehand.
I think we face both a climate threat, which is real, and an economic threat, which comes from an overly intense concentration of industrial wealth on this topic. We need to think hard about how to manage those twin threats.
Thank you.