Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Good afternoon. I want to thank the members for having us here today. I am joined by Thomas Welt, from Nature Québec. I represent the Association québécoise de lutte contre la pollution atmosphérique (AQLPA). Nature Québec and the AQLPA are two of Quebec's oldest environmental groups. Both were founded in the early 1980s.
I would like to begin by giving you an overview of the shale gas situation in Quebec, a very real issue right now. It involves a natural gas development between Montreal and Quebec City, between the St. Lawrence and Highway 20, in an area that spans about 10,000 km2 and that happens to make up the heart of Quebec, both from a population and an agricultural standpoint. The potential for gas production is quite significant, estimated at 40 quintillion cubic feet. Naturally, there are some doubts about the accuracy of that figure. Sometimes it is estimated at more than 15 quintillion cubic feet, which is equivalent to approximately 200 years of use, based on Quebec's current rate of consumption.
Twenty-nine wells have already been drilled in Quebec. There is talk of drilling a possible 10,000, 15,000 or 20,000 wells in order to make the industry in Quebec fully operational, with approximately 250 to 500 wells being drilled a year. That would mean 3 to 6 wells per square kilometre, putting a huge number of wells in a very populated area over a very short period of time. Right now, about 11% of Quebec's energy comes from natural gas. Quebec does not have any natural gas-based power generation. Clearly, one the reasons for that has to do with the large presence of hydroelectricity.
Now let's look at this from an international perspective. Shale gas use, production, exploration and development raise a number of environmental concerns, primarily with respect to greenhouse gases and air and water quality. Approximately 10% of Quebec's greenhouse gas emissions come from the use of gas. And Quebec's planned exploration and development activities will only increase those emissions. We are still lacking a multitude of data, figures and analyses on the possible emissions resulting from the gas exploration and development. Nevertheless, Quebec's greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to increase by approximately 5% to 10%, based on the anticipated rate of shale gas exploration and development. Keep in mind Quebec's target of a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels by 2020, and Canada's target of a 17% reduction below 2005 levels by 2020.
Even Quebec's environment minister does not have any studies on the entire gas life cycle related to shale gas exploration. So there is a clear lack of information. We do know, however, that the United States Environmental Protection Agency released a report in November stating that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from oil and gas production were going to double. In the U.S., most of the increase in emissions is due to gas production. The increase in greenhouse gas emissions entered in the U.S. inventory is equivalent to all of Quebec's emissions in one year. Just by changing the factors used to calculate these emissions, the U.S. added to its inventory an increase equivalent to all of Quebec's emissions, simply because it is now understood that there are more leaks, that they involve methane and that production generates even more emissions.
One of the AQLPA's biggest concerns is obviously air quality. Very few studies have been done on the topic. The Institut national de santé publique du Québec recently released a preliminary report identifying huge shortcomings with respect to the impact on air quality. From the little research that is available, including air quality modelling done by the U.S. in the Haynesville region, one thing is very clear: air quality is significantly affected, as it relates to ozone, which is made up of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds. Air quality is significantly affected, not only in the region under shale gas exploration and development, but also in surrounding regions, given the movement of particles, as you may have gathered.
Water quality is another major concern. Well fracturing alone requires millions of litres of water, which are mixed with tons of chemicals. Approximately 50% of the water remains underground and 50% is removed. There is a risk of aquifer contamination as a result of these mixtures and the flow of water between strata. We filed a brief on this topic with the Bureau d'audiences publiques sur l'environnement. The document was prepared by Mr. Durand, a retired UQAM professor and geologist, who is concerned about these risks.
There are other risks associated with transportation, spills and obviously wastewater treatment, given that 50% of the water used and removed from the ground must be treated after the fracturing process. Most of the plants that will be treating this water and these chemicals do not have the necessary facilities to do so.
It should also be noted that the list of chemicals is not necessarily known, that some of the effects of these chemicals combining and interacting in this toxic soup are not known.
On that note, I will hand the floor over to Mr. Welt, who will discuss the economic and social effects of shale gas exploration.