Thank you, Mr. Chair, and members of the committee. The taxi driver dropped me ten blocks away, so I had to find the site. I am here.
You have my name. I'm chair of the Fundy Ocean Research Center for Energy, FORCE. I'm also vice-president of energy development for Minas Basin Pulp and Power, which is a tidal project developer.
On behalf of FORCE and our partners in the growing tidal industry, thank you for the opportunity to be able to bring our views forward today. We're happy to join in a conversation that you're having in Ottawa and around the country on how to move forward toward a clean, secure energy supply for this country. We understand that we're just one small piece of a very large, complex puzzle.
Clean energy means a diverse energy supply with a wide range of options to balance and complement each other: hydro, wind, biomass, solar, and our personal favourite, tidal energy. Tidal turbine technology works remarkably like a windmill under water, powered by the movement of the tide rather than air. But like wind, power output is very sensitive to the speed of the resource. Energy in the water column is measured by the cube of its velocity. It's exponential. If you double the speed of water, energy increases eight times. Unlike wind, water is dense—800 times denser than air. That means you can generate power with smaller blades and lower revolutions per minute. Unlike wind, tides are predictable. This predictability makes it much easier to balance the electrical system. We know exactly what the tide is, its water velocities, and what they'll be today, tomorrow, and 1,000 years from tomorrow. In fact, Nova Scotia has been integrating tidal energy into its grid since 1984 using a more conventional tidal barrage at Annapolis Royal.
I'd like to give the committee a brief summary of the unique tidal resource in the Bay of Fundy, what FORCE is doing, and how Canada is well positioned to begin an industry.
I'll start with the resource. Our story starts in 2006, when a California-based study identified the Bay of Fundy as potentially North America's best site to harness tidal energy because of both its size and its close proximity to the existing grid. Some 160 billion tonnes of water flow into the Bay of Fundy each tide, more than four times the combined flow of every freshwater river in the world. Many have heard that Fundy has the highest tides in the world.
But what's most important in the tidal business is speed. Our site is very fast. The current research suggests there are about 7,000 megawatts of kinetic energy in the Minas Passage of the Bay of Fundy. The model developed by Dr. Richard Karsten, a mathematics professor at Acadia University, predicts that about 2,500 of the 7,000 megawatts that are there can be safety extracted. After 2,500 megawatts, we begin to negatively impact the tides in Boston Harbor. Twenty-five hundred megawatts is nearly the combined size of the Gull Island project and Muskrat Falls, the hydroelectric project on the lower Churchill River. Twenty-five hundred megawatts of tidal energy is an attractive number to a province with a peak electrical demand of only 2,000 megawatts, so it's substantial. Our demand in Nova Scotia is met mostly with imported fossil fuels, and everybody in this room knows that this has to change.
Just as important as the magnitude of our tidal energy opportunity is our proximity to the grid. The best tidal site in the world is within 10 kilometres of a North American transmission system. We in Atlantic Canada are fully aware of transmission systems: whether they're overland or submarine, they're very expensive. With Natural Resources Canada's help, FORCE has made that very critical investment in our transmission capacity. We also have 11 kilometres of submarine cable ready to be deployed, and we have constructed a high-voltage substation that together with the transmission line gives FORCE access to local and regional electricity markets. Combine the power contained in the Fundy tide with the electrical infrastructure already in place, and we have a compelling site that is attracting attention from the international investment community.
How compelling? Let's look at FORCE for a moment. FORCE is Canada's lead centre for tidal turbine demonstration. We are a not-for-profit research company with three main roles. We host a plug-and-play service, we serve as a public watchdog, and we coordinate global quality marine research related to tidal energy extraction. As host, FORCE lowers the cost and reduces risk for industry by providing a fully permanent site, submarine cables, and onshore electrical infrastructure to get power to market. In fact, our FORCE submarine cables have the capacity to deliver up to 64 megawatts of power from four areas on the sea floor. That's the biggest transmission capacity of any tidal energy site on any continent in the world.
As a watchdog, FORCE provides environmental monitoring of all devices at its test site in the Minas Passage on the Bay of Fundy. This piece will be an essential condition for the public to accept commercial-scale development. As a centre for research, much of the work we do is to build our knowledge of the site. We already have the most understood tidal site in the world, and we continue to strive to increase our knowledge.
When it comes to designing a successful tidal turbine for the Bay of Fundy, knowledge reduces risk and attracts investors—international investors. Current velocities are so strong here that they stretch the existing ability of commercial sensing equipment to measure flows. Never before have instruments been put through these rigorous conditions. That’s why, with support from the Government of Canada, EnCana, and our private partners, FORCE will soon be home to the world’s first recoverable underwater monitoring platform designed specifically for extreme high-flow conditions in a tidal race.
My company, Minas Basin Pulp and Power, is installing a tidal turbine generator at FORCE, 30 metres below the surface of the ocean. That's 30 metres at low, low tide; it's 45 metres when the tide is high. We need to know everything we can about these conditions: current speeds, direction of flow, turbulences, sediment transport, and the rate at which everything changes, including how hurricanes manifest themselves in the water column. Success depends on us conquering these unknowns, and this monitoring platform is our vehicle to get us there.
Let us not forget that we have already succeeded in attracting four of the most advanced technologies in the world: Ireland’s OpenHydro, France’s Alstom, Australia’s Atlantis, and England’s Marine Current Turbines. With regard to open rotors and ducted turbines, we have the leaders. And a fifth will come soon. Right now Nova Scotia has an open tender for a new technology.
The first turbine that went into our site showed us just how powerful it is, surviving one spring tide cycle but losing five of its blades on the second cycle. While that was an expensive learning experience for the turbine developer, it showed us that our resource is up to two and a half times more powerful than we thought it was. It also demonstrates that we need more data, and hence that platform.
In the long run, the economics of our site are compelling. The tidal energy economy is not solely based on the power of our resource or the calibre of the companies that have invested in the project. The real potential is the start of a tidal energy industry in Canada at the ground floor.
We see this as an enormous opportunity for Nova Scotia, maritime Canada, and Canada as a whole. We have a local world-class research community that effectively networks with national and international researchers. We also have a world-class marine industry on the east coast supplying and servicing a growing list of offshore oil and gas projects.Their skills are directly applicable and transferrable to the tidal energy industry. They have already been put to work in identifying the test site, monitoring the environment, towing equipment to and fro, building a gravity base, and pioneering new research. I’m proud to say that my company, Minas Basin Pulp and Power, brought FORCE into existence. We found the site. We designed the entire system. We got it permitted, and we built it.
Now Minas has turned its attention to our turbine technology. We will fabricate a large portion of our turbine generator here in Canada, and mostly in Nova Scotia, as will all the other developers. Turbine generators have a mass in excess of 1,000 tonnes and are far too bulky and expensive to transport great distances. Our tidal turbine will weigh about 1,500 tonnes.
International Telecom, a company based in Quebec and Nova Scotia, has already begun rehearsing the installation of the subsea cable, a challenging marine operation that will involve four powerful tugs, carefully coordinated dynamic positioning, and detailed knowledge of the water speeds and patterns. This team will set out to prove that we can achieve success using local assets rather than bringing in equipment from other markets. They are creating spinoff work for other operations, as they mobilize, transport, and install 11 kilometres of very expensive submarine cable. If we bring all of our skills to bear, I believe Canada will emerge as a world leader.
We know we still have a lot to do. There are new technologies and new challenges. Our job is to solve problems and deliver power safely, reliably, and economically. We have the energy resource and we have the skills. We have the political will, not only from Nova Scotia but also from Ottawa. Enercan and SDTC deserve words of appreciation from us. Enercan has contributed $25 million to the Fundy project. Without Enercan, we would have no transmission system and no submarine cables. Without Enercan, we would be back in 2008. Enercan has served as chaperone, coach, counsellor, and patient friend. Enercan has shown its faith in FORCE, and FORCE will deliver on all of its promises.
SDTC, on the other hand, has contributed $20 million to the Canadian tidal energy efforts. Its high standards have trained successful candidates how to think all the way through the project, how to build a team, how to put consortiums together. SDTC is a demanding but very wonderful teacher. Its excellence in the due diligence process almost ensures the proponents that when they are through the SDTC process, then indeed investors will show up to invest in the projects.
It’s not just money. Through the marine technology road map exercise, the federal government sees a potential supply chain and an ability to extract tidal energy that starts with the Bay of Fundy and moves right across the country, where up to 80,000 megawatts of tidal power lies in wait for all Canadians.
The road map targets a Canadian contribution totalling 250 megawatts by 2020 and two gigawatts by 2030 for all forms of marine renewable energy: tidal, river-current, and wave energy generation. It also predicts $2 billion a year in economic activity, most of that export.
We have also begun the process to establish a feed-in tariff here in Nova Scotia for larger-scale turbines and arrays. This is a fixed price for tidal energy, providing sufficient incentives for developers as they secure investors, finalize designs, fabricate generators, and deploy units. As we complete the installation of our subsea cabling, Canada will move to the front of the pack in terms of total capacity worldwide, more than any other tidal test site in the world.
But we’re not alone in this race. Analysts predict that by 2015, about $1.2 billion will be spent on wave and tidal supply chains worldwide, supporting the installation of approximately 86 megawatts of devices. Of the 86 megawatts, 42 megawatts will be in tidal energy. Of the 86 megawatts, the United Kingdom will lead with 51 megawatts, the U.S.A. with 11 megawatts, Portugal with nine, but Canada sits in fourth place with six megawatts.
We do not need to lead this race; being a close follower is just fine. Remember we've got the best tidal site in the world; nobody comes close to Fundy. Perseverance to stay the course will result in job creation and economic opportunities that come with building an industry here. The alternative for us is to import the know-how and ask other countries to do our job for us.
Thank you, Mr. Chair.