Thank you to the committee for this opportunity.
I will start by going straight to the point that these elements are critical.
I just would like to emphasize that there are light rare earth elements as well as heavy rare earth elements that are critical. For instance, for magnets, neodymium and praseodymium are used in significant amounts in some of the magnets, such as the neodymium iron boron magnets. The estimates are very positive for those elements.
The issue with the heavy rare earths—I believe you have heard this before—is that China supplies almost 100% and they have indicated that their resources are diminishing significantly. They have less than 30 years now in regard to supplies. There has always been a fear that China might decrease further their exports of these elements that they control.
But the way the market sees it and understands it is that, as the global economy recovers, there will be an increased demand for many materials that utilize these rare earths. For instance, in the magnets space again, we have forecasts of an increase in demand of about 40% between now and 2017.
You might ask, then, if these elements are critical, and if there is a consensus among analysts that demand will increase significantly, why we haven't seen more activities from the capital markets and more interest. I want to go back in history a little bit and explain that China has controlled the supply of rare earths in the last few decades. The export quotas were introduced in 2005. At that time, they were around 60,000 tonnes. They decreased that significantly, to about 30,000 by 2010, and when that happened, the markets realized that there was a need for sources of rare earths outside China.
From 2008 to 2010 and part of 2011, many rare earth companies were formed. Over $3 billion was invested in many projects, particularly the larger projects, such as Molycorp in the U.S. and Lynas in Australia. Also, many projects in Canada received investments.
A number of events happened. China usually puts out export quotas semi-annually. In 2010, they reported the first half of exports, which were 35% lower than the previous year. That caused a frenzy in the market. Rare earth stocks were up and prices were up. Many end users stockpiled significantly. Examples include lanthanum, which was $2 per kilo back in 2007 and went as high as $250 per kilo at the peak in 2011. The market did not know and the end users did not know what the next move was and what China was going to do next.
In 2011, however, a number of things happened. China did not cut the export quotas further, as everybody thought. The second half was actually quite high. It was higher than the first half. China reinstated the 30,000 tonnes. Other things happened as well, such as the earthquake and tsunami in the country with the second-largest consumption of rare earths, which is Japan. Their economy slowed down in 2011. There were also a number of flood events in Thailand, which is a region that manufactures electronic equipment, so we saw a decrease in demand for rare earths in that region.
At the same time, during 2011-12, we saw a slowdown in the whole commodity market. The demand for many metals slowed down, and in the capital markets we saw a number of asset management firms that usually invest in mining stocks in recent years consolidate, or even close doors. We have seen a number of boutique investment banks as well that have discontinued their businesses as a result of the significant slowdown in the mining space.
So moving forward, we don't know what China is going to do. Export quotas are now 30,000 tonnes, but again, heavy rare earth demand is increasing, and their supply is diminishing. End users have done a number of things in the last few years. They stockpiled significantly and they exited the market in early 2011, so demand for rare earths in 2011 and the last few years has been really low and prices have collapsed.
Meanwhile, the end users have used their stockpiles, but they have spent hundreds of millions of dollars improving their manufacturing efficiency, particularly in reducing waste. There is this technique that is known as additive manufacturing that essentially is a little bit like 3-D printing. Instead of machining a piece, you add layers of the material, effectively reducing your waste to zero. They're also looking for alternatives for recycling, redesign, and substitution.
I will conclude by saying I think it is clear that there is demand for these materials. They're attached to many important sectors even for Canada, for example the automotive sector. They are very much linked to many green technologies and the green technology sector that is emerging around the world. From the perspective of the capital markets, we understand there is a race to supply. End users are looking for places around the world where they can set up infrastructure, where they can set up separation infrastructure, metal capabilities of rare earth materials, and other manufacturing capabilities associated with the rare earths.
This is a decision that they are certainly thinking about and will be making, and a number of countries have realized that. Brazil has had a number of meetings with Vale and other large mining companies, and they are looking into becoming a large producer of rare earths again. We know Russia is looking into that. We know even North Korea is looking into that.
In Canada's case, we have unique resources, with distribution skewed towards the critical elements. We have what I would call a culture and a knowledge infrastructure of mining that we can make use of to achieve the target that the network wants, which is to set up production and separation capabilities within five years. I think we have all or most of the components that other countries don't have. If the sector could have a little bit more support from the government, as we have seen in other parts of the world, that would be ideal to accelerate this vision.
Finally, the network will be instrumental for this, because what we have right now is individual islands of complexity—the rare earth stocks outside, the rare earth companies—and with this network we'd have a network of solutions where all the companies can come together and potentially solve many of their problems, advance the rare earth industry in Canada, and motivate end users to build the infrastructure of separation, metal-making, and so forth.
So that is the idea, and with that I conclude my remarks.