Well, the bigger problem, which you have touched on, is what Russian policy is towards Ukraine as a whole. We have just seen that Russia has annexed Crimea. That came as a complete surprise, like a bolt from a clear sky. Nobody really expected that Russia would do it. We do expect that Russia will poke up trouble around it, which they like to do; they don't like stability in their nearest neighbourhood.
The fundamental question is what President Vladimir Putin, because it's very much he who decides in the Crimea, wants in Ukraine. I would suggest that there were two reasons for him to start the trouble in Ukraine in February.
First, he was afraid of a democratic breakthrough in Ukraine, because that would be a potential threat at home against his authoritarian and corrupt rule.
The second reason—