There we go. I thought you'd have another go at a tricky last name.
My name is Michael Wolinetz. I am a partner, senior analyst and consultant with Navius Research. We are a Vancouver-based energy and economic consultancy. Our work primarily involves producing forward-looking analyses where we simulate how government policy, technology and energy markets and costs will affect greenhouse gas emissions and the economy in general. Our work spans all sectors of the economy, all energy consumption, all emissions sources and all potential greenhouse gas abatement actions.
I'll be speaking somewhat more briefly, focusing more on the renewable and biofuels side of things. I think there is significant opportunity for renewable low-carbon biofuels in Canada. To get there, it's critical to have policies that create long-term and durable signals for the consumption of these low-carbon and renewable fuels. In order to get to some meaningful level of production, there needs to be very large investments. These will only happen if they can be significantly de-risked by ensuring that there will be some market for the product being produced.
In terms of the cost and benefits of these fuels, our work consistently shows us that these fuels will cost more than conventional fossil fuels, but the benefit is that there are new sectors and commodities that create new economic development jobs in Canada, and there are significant opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Regarding economic activity and job creation, if we're focusing on the biofuels side of things, there is significant potential for job creation, especially in rural parts of Canada, as it may involve additional collection of forestry harvest residues or agricultural residues, as well as processing within the rural areas. That being said, from this specific green economy sector, we see a lot of jobs but not such a quantity that it would completely offset the jobs related to the current conventional fossil fuel industries.
Regarding the potential for net reduction in Canada's greenhouse gas emissions, there's substantial abatement potential from low-carbon renewable fuels, especially when we're talking about advanced biofuels produced from woody or grassy feedstocks. That being said, it's not a silver bullet. We're talking about a silver buckshot approach here, so it will have to have to occur in conjunction with numerous other abatement opportunities. That would include electrification and energy efficiency as well as other low-carbon fuels like hydrogen.
We see a pretty healthy niche that could be occupied by biofuels. We do a lot of work now forecasting how Canada's economy and energy system evolves when meeting legislated and announced targets, as well as it how it evolves as we trend towards a net-zero-emissions future. We see a persistent and ongoing demand for energy-dense fuels that could be used, notably for transportation like trucking, marine and aviation, as well as in industry.
Biofuels, notably those produced from residues that could be sustainable and also give a real greenhouse gas reduction, could occupy a healthy niche of our energy system, something on the order of 15% to 25%, depending on the extent of energy consumption and the extent of feedstock production. That being said, it requires careful management to ensure that the bioenergy system is actually giving a real and substantial net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. You need careful management to ensure that you're not depleting stocks of soil carbon—for example, not degrading soils and not resulting in additional deforestation.
As I mentioned earlier, biofuels may be complemented by hydrogen in terms of other low-carbon fuels, and certainly will act in concert with energy efficiency and electrification using renewable energy consumption. That being said, I am somewhat less optimistic and more uncertain about the future of hydrogen. I certainly see a role for it in interacting with intermittent renewable solar and wind electricity generation, and potentially blue hydrogen, although I don't necessarily see it as an outright shift to a full hydrogen economy in the future where hydrogen is cheaper than current energy sources.
Thanks for having me participate. That's all I'll say right now.