Sure. At Navius Research, most of our forward-looking analyses are produced with what's called a “general equilibrium model”. This is a model that shows all of the interactions between the different sectors within the economy, so it tracks allocation of capital, commodities that are used and produced by different sectors as well as employment. Within this model, we can simulate the impact of greenhouse gas policy, for example, that would lead us towards a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions future. We can look at how that changes activity in different sectors as well as emerging sectors—these would be green energy sectors that may not exist yet—and from that, we can infer the quantity of jobs that may be lost in some sectors and that may be gained in other sectors.
The challenge with the transition we're facing is that we have a significant export industry in conventional energy sources that are emitting greenhouse gas emissions. In that transition, we may be able to supply ourselves with low-carbon fuels, but if we don't seize opportunities to also continue to find ways of exporting energy as well, then there may be a contraction in the overall size of the energy sector.
I would want to put this in context, though. Nationally, the energy sector is an important sector, but Canada has a vast number of jobs in almost every other sector, notably service-related sectors. Regionally, of course, though, it may be more important to support green energy growth and green energy jobs in some parts of Canada, notably Alberta and Saskatchewan, to mitigate economic impacts in those regions.