Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thank you to the committee for inviting me to speak today.
My name is Moe Kabbara. I'm the vice-president of the Transition Accelerator. We're a pan-Canadian organization that's focused on helping Canada build a prosperous and competitive future by identifying pathways to net zero by 2050.
Today, I'm going to focus on three key points. Number one is that electricity will be the largest contributor to Canada's net-zero goals. Number two is that electrification is not just feasible but can also be financially beneficial for most Canadians. Number three is about an inconvenient truth: The reality is that, across the country, some regions and households will need more support in this transition, which necessitates proactive actions.
On the first point, while Canada's electricity system only accounts for 6% of our emissions, the real opportunity lies with the electrification of the remaining 94%, even if we don't get all the way to 94%. There's going to be a significant amount of electrification for transportation, heating and industry. Though there's uncertainty about how we're going to fully decarbonize all of the above options, including the ways we can generate clean electricity—and I think we need to explore all of that—it's clear that electrification will play the largest role. Study after study confirms that we're going to need more electricity, and electricity is the most cost-effective way to reach net zero.
Growth is also possible. We've been using electricity for more than a century, and that means we must also grow the grid in order to continue electrifying different end uses of energy. The same studies that we've talked about identify electrification as a key pathway, and as mentioned earlier today, we've heard numbers around doubling or tripling the size of the grid by 2050. This is definitely not going to be an easy task, but it's certainly possible.
If we look at the past, between 1920 and 1980, Canada's electricity generation grew by 7% per year, essentially doubling the system every decade for 60 years. Today, we need about 3% annual growth to achieve the doubling by 2050 to get to net zero. We've done it before at an even faster pace, and we can do it again.
The second point is around economic competitiveness and affordability. Growing the grid isn't just a climate solution. As mentioned earlier, it's also a way to ensure Canada's competitiveness. If we look at some of the investments we've attracted in the auto and battery sectors—Volkswagen, Umicore, Northvolt, Stellantis, GM and Ford—what all of these companies have in common is that they've committed to decarbonizing their operations in 2030, 2035 or 2040, but it's clear that they're looking for affordable, reliable and clean electricity for their businesses.
At the household level, our research shows that households could spend less money heating and powering their homes and fuelling transportation needs in 2050 than they do today through electrification. This is important because we're looking at some of the biggest winners in the country in Atlantic Canada, where energy cost burdens are among the highest in the country. They really stand to benefit a lot in terms of the significant savings that they could have by switching to electrification.
Other big winners are people who drive cars. If we look at gasoline vehicle efficiency, it's quite low relative to electric vehicles. Lower operating costs for EVs can make a huge difference.
The third point I want to make is that support is going to be needed to unlock these benefits for all Canadians. The transition to electrification is not all roses for everybody. While many will benefit, it's important to recognize that our analysis reveals the inconvenient truth that some regions and households will struggle to find those savings. Low-income households and those in provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, where there is reliance on natural gas and winters are quite harsh, face greater challenges.
However, those challenges are not fatalistic, and they're not necessarily reasons to delay. Rather, they really highlight the importance of placing policy emphasis where we can address affordability concerns and also maintain public support for the transition.
Today I have two calls for action that are specifically related to the federal government focusing on two areas.
Number one is enabling the rapid growth of the electricity system everywhere. This includes streamlining project approval, incentivizing infrastructure and investments, and ensuring provinces have the flexibility to manage their increased electrification.
Number two is recognizing that not all provinces are starting from the same point. They're going to face different challenges, so it's important to ensure we have a tailored approach that supports and targets where the need is greatest and recognizes the different starting points and hurdles that each province faces.
By focusing on those two areas, the government can help ensure that electrification provides benefits for all Canadians, while advancing our climate goals.
Thank you.