Thanks very much, Mr. Chair and the committee, for providing this forum to address the potential for really massive offshore renewable energy development off our Atlantic coast. It's a scale of opportunity that, quite frankly, has been underestimated. Realization of the opportunity will depend on many factors, but one essential precondition is an appropriate regulatory framework, and hence the relevance of Bill C-49.
I will very briefly summarize some of the content of a paper I wrote, entitled “Catching the Wind”, published last October by the Public Policy Forum. The purpose was to outline the opportunity to develop Atlantic offshore wind energy at scale as a significant contribution to Canada's clean energy requirement.
I want to emphasize that we are talking here about a project of national significance, not just a regional project, although there would be very significant economic benefits for Atlantic Canada. To date, much of the discussion of Atlantic offshore wind has been in the context of green hydrogen for export primarily to European markets. While this may be a promising opportunity, in my view, green hydrogen is not the biggest prize. The first and best use for Atlantic offshore wind would be to supply the national grid and to provide massive amounts of clean energy as far west as Ontario.
The starting premise is Canada's, and indeed the world's, commitment to eventually decarbonize the energy system. This will require an enormous expansion of electricity generation and transmission, both nationally and globally. How much? In Canada's case, we can draw on a detailed scenario published last June by the Canada Energy Regulator, or CER. The CER projected that to achieve net zero, Canada will need to double electricity generation.
Where will all this new energy come from? According to the CER scenario, about 15% will be from new hydro development. Some 25% will be from a tripling of nuclear generation. Another 15% or so would come from a mix of solar, biomass and geothermal, but almost half of the new generation would come from a sevenfold increase in wind energy. In the case of Ontario, for example, electricity generation would more than triple in the net-zero scenario, with almost two-thirds of the growth coming from a twelvefold increase in wind generation.
Where will all this new wind generation come from? Obviously, a great deal will have to come from a massive build-out of terrestrial wind farms across Canada, particularly in the west. However, wind facilities on the unprecedented scale required can generate very significant land use conflicts, particularly in more heavily populated areas where local resistance has already manifested.
What's the alternative? The alternative is to generate massive new energy from the strong and consistent winds blowing off our Atlantic coast. I'll illustrate with just one hypothetical example. Imagine one or more offshore wind facilities capable of generating a combined 15 gigawatts of electricity. That's a very large amount. It's enough to power six million to seven million average Canadian homes. This power could be provided by a thousand 15-megawatt turbines. They would occupy a total area of roughly 3,000 to 4,000 square kilometres of ocean surface. It's important to recognize that wind turbines at this enormous scale would be separated by at least 1.5 kilometres, thus greatly reducing the impact on marine activity and traffic. A great many areas off the Atlantic coast afford excellent siting conditions, including the example I provided in the paper of the vast Sable Island bank, though of course not on Sable Island itself.
There would be very significant direct economic benefits associated with the installation and ongoing operation of such a facility. For example, as was mentioned by Mr. Schumann a moment ago, there would be about 30,000 jobs during a multi-year installation and roughly 1,200 permanent jobs associated with maintenance. Fortunately, there's already a base of relevant marine skills in the region. With training, Atlantic Canada could eventually become a global centre of expertise in offshore wind.
The challenge here is going to be to mobilize the enormous investment to establish both the wind facilities and the expanded transmission westward from the coast. This will require many tens of billions spent over many years, but we are talking about an investment to secure both our future economy and a livable planet.
In conclusion, it is quite obvious that we have here a national opportunity of historic proportions, and for that opportunity to come to pass, Canada urgently needs a regulatory framework equal to the unprecedented nature of that opportunity.
Thank you very much. I welcome the questions.