I can comment on the lapse in general, and I will get back to your specific question.
The lapse in general is not well understood. I do want to make one very important point. When Parliament authorizes spending, it's an “up to” amount. It's not that you must spend a hundred; it's an “up to” or a maximum. It is against the law to overspend, so some degree of lapsing is actually expected, because if departments are right up to the penny, they're risking going over. So we do expect some degree of lapsing.
When you look at the lapsing, it's down this year over the previous year on a whole-of-government basis, and what we like to look at is whether the lapse was planned or unplanned. So if you go back years ago, we do vote money year by year. If you didn't spend it, it evaporated and you had to reapply for it.
Departments are allowed to carry forward five per cent of their unspent operating into the next year. They're allowed to carry forward 20 per cent of their capital spending unspent into the next year. So it's not lost money. In the case of National Defence, that money isn't going away. It will be back in the reference levels, but Parliament does vote money year by year.
But you've raised an interesting point on the shipbuilding. What you'll see for projects that are long term in nature and complicated is there are often delays, as you have mentioned. The prices and the costs of those projects are often in the case of shipbuilding at the mercy of prices of steel. So if you delay five years, ten years, whatever, at the end of the day you actually get less steel for your money than you did when the project was first conceived.
So when these projects are managed, there are really two ways to do it. You can set aside money for the department to build a certain number of ships, or if you know it's a long-term complex project, you can set aside a certain amount of money and say to the department, you need to live within that envelope and you figure out how many ships you're going to get.
I can't speak to the Parliamentary Budget Officer's methodology, but there is an erosion of dollars over time because of inflation as the projects are delayed. With complex projects like shipbuilding, it's quite normal that they will slide a bit from their initial focus. But to your comment on Defence, that money that they lapsed is all within their carry forward limits or reprofiled, they're not going to lose that money.