We do not have an estimate at this time of federal revenue losses as a result of contraband activity. Certainly what you can see in the public accounts is a decline. It hit a peak of $3.5 billion in 2003-04, and then over the next four years we've seen it decline to roughly $2.5 billion. The question there is, is that decline attributable, certainly some part of it, to contraband activity and is some of it attributable to long-term declines in smoking, consistent with what we see in consumption surveys?
Trying to evaluate both those items is a difficult process. By its very nature, contraband activity is underground, black market activity. While we have reports on seizures, we can't necessarily extrapolate and come up with a level of contraband activity that would be reliable or verifiable. Similarly on the consumption side, we can look at long-term trends, but again, survey data will not always be 100% accurate, by its very nature.
I think what we've tried to do is monitor the contraband situation, look at the type of contraband that is occurring, and make changes to the excise tax structure that reflect that and that give the compliance and enforcement agencies the tools they need.