You talk about the likelihood of reoffending. Is it not true that not reoffending does not necessarily mean that the individual has not committed other offenses? For example, a pedophile who started with killing children and who now does not kill them but only rapes them would be considered a success as far as reoffending is concerned, would he not?
If there is a reduction of harm--for example, if a pedophile who killed a child after having raped him follows a treatment that makes him stop killing children while continuing to rape them--, that would be considered a success as far as reoffending is concerned.