Thank you for letting me present my research regarding Canadian firearms legislation. I am an emergency physician in Hamilton. I treat suicide and violence on a daily basis.
During the next seven minutes, I will summarize research I have recently had accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed Journal of Interpersonal Violence regarding Canadian firearms legislation's effects on homicide from 1974 to 2008. In particular, I will focus on the long-gun registry today. As well, I will go into brief detail and analysis of the association between the long-gun registry and suicide.
Several figures will be assessed during this brief that I present to the committee. I would ask that you examine the figures I am referring to during this discussion.
Briefly, three statistical methods were used in an attempt to find an association between firearms legislation in 1978, 1991, and 1995, and the long-gun registry. In particular, it is important to note that the long-gun registry was enacted in 1999 and was mandatory by 2003. The study is significant and is the only peer-reviewed study examining 1994 to 2008 and the only study using three methods to confirm results. The search for effects was conducted over several years. Surrounding legislation--as well as gradual effects--was examined, as some legislation, such as that for the PAL, are implemented over years.
To summarize the results, no statistically significant beneficial associations between firearms legislation and homicide by firearms, by the subcategory long guns, and spousal homicide, as well as the criminal charge of “discharge of a firearm with intent”, were found.
In the next five slides, I will attempt to demonstrate some of the results pertaining specifically to the long-gun registry in graphical format, as I hope this will be easier to understand and interpret.
Figure 1 is a graphical depiction of a homicide regression analysis. In this example, the homicide rate prior to the intervention is marked B1. At the time of the intervention, B2, there is a sudden impact, shifting down the homicide rate. The trend of the decline of homicide after the intervention, B3, continues post-intervention over time. Statistical analysis is done to determine if these effects at B2 and B3 are significant and not due to yearly variation. Successful legislation would be expected to have an effect depicted in this picture.
Figure 2 shows the homicide firearms rate, minus the effects of contributing variables such as aging population, on the bottom of the graph. As can be seen visually, right along the bottom of the graph, there is no sudden shift or decline such as might be expected from effects explained by legislation associated with firearms. For example, as the median age of the population increases by one year, the homicide rate drops by 8%.
Figure 3 demonstrates a two-dimensional depiction of multiple regression of factors associated with firearms homicide, such as socio-economic factors as well as the long-gun registry. Post-long-gun registry in 1999, there is no significant immediate decrease or a decrease in time after the long-gun registry. In fact, as you can see, the effect increases, and homicide goes up.
Figure 4 shows the same thing for homicide by long gun. Prior to the long-gun registry, you have a decrease in homicide. There is no statistically significant impact effect after the registry is implemented; there is no decreasing trend.
Figure 5 depicts the same thing for spousal homicide. Once again, this is multivariate analysis with multiple socio-economic factors included. Once again, there is no significant decrease in 1999, and afterwards, the trend effect increases.
A similar analysis is done on the suicide rate post-1991 to account for any potential background effects of legislation introduced in the early 1990s.
Figure 6 depicts total suicide. In 1999 there is no significant statistical immediate impact effect or impact effect over time. These trend lines are not significant.
Figure 7 demonstrates suicide by firearm. There is no significant impact effect in 1999, when the long-gun registry is implemented, and afterwards there is no decreasing trend; the trend lines are the same. A similar analysis was done by Gagne et al.
I'd like to close. In my humble opinion, the money that has been spent on the long-gun registry is unfortunately wasted; however, we can prevent further waste by taking the money we currently spend on the long-gun registry and spending it on things shown in the scientific literature to be beneficial at saving more than just one life. Those things are women's shelters; police training in spousal abuse; and psychiatric care, which is sorely lacking in this country. We are not winning the battle against suicide.
I have a quote from an emergency department chief, who said: “In a town where I have over 15,000 registered firearms--and probably as many unregistered--and 22 trains travelling through every 24 hours, guess which one gets used for suicide more often? What we need are more resources to fund mental health and treatment rather than registering inanimate objects in our rural community. Psychiatrists and outreach workers offer tangible results that are saving Canadian lives, something no gun registry on earth can provide”. That was from Dr. Ramirez, chief of the Stevenson Memorial Hospital.