Certainly I would preface this remark by saying I'm not an expert in this type of macro-level economic and criminological research. My view is that our past experience in the U.S. with crime during times of economic downturns leads us to believe that we would have seen a clearer manifestation of those problems by now than we have. There certainly is an argument that there might be a lagging effect. The relationship is not direct. It's not about dad who loses his job at the GM plant. It's about what happens when dad loses the job, is unable to find employment, falls into depression and alcoholism, and neglects his son, who ultimately grows up to make poor choices.
You are certainly correct in that we have to be very cautious in thinking that in the U.S. we've dodged the bullet, if you will, on this situation simply by virtue of not seeing that immediate outcome. It's a very complex set of relationships, many of which are long term and very difficult to disentangle or correct.