I would like to start by thanking the committee for the opportunity to come here and present today.
While Canada faces a great number of potential threats to its national security, I will be spending my opening remarks trying to impress upon you the very real challenges that exist, and in my opinion will be intensifying in the near future, related to the issue of home-grown terrorism and radicalization.
Obviously this is a very complicated and multidimensional issue that requires a tremendous amount of time—greater than we have here—to discuss in detail. Before I begin, I would, however, also like to make the following general but important point. While the focus of my statement here refers to the threat posed by Islamist-inspired groups and individuals, as someone who studies terrorism I can assure you that the threat posed by individuals or groups willing to use violence in pursuit of any number of political or ideological goals remains very real.
That being said, I do believe that currently our greatest concern remains groups such as ISIS and a resurgent al Qaeda, and that this threat, and the threat it poses to Canada and our allies, will actually be increasing in the near term.
I would also like to implore you to think about the threat not as a manifestation of any one group but instead the ideas that they espouse. Make no mistake about it: ISIS, as we understand them today, will be defeated. But the ideas that drive them and other like-minded groups will continue. It is likely that in the next few years we will see a different version of ISIS, much like we witnessed with al Qaeda following the Afghanistan war, and the emergence of new groups that share the ideology of ISIS. This is why we must make their ideas the focal point in our strategy. This is how we successfully degrade and ultimately defeat ISIS and groups that may emerge in the future. You must accept the reality that the ideas espoused by groups such as ISIS will continue to resonate with a very small segment of our population. We must confront these ideas and neutralize them. We must do our best to challenge their being introduced, slow their dissemination, and prevent their entrenchment into our society.
In my opinion, the Canadian government has not done enough in its efforts to address these concerns. The problem is that not only has our failure to address them left us vulnerable today, but more importantly it will be a contributing factor to the severity of the problem in the future. An absence of physical threats or attacks in the present should not be taken as an indicator for the future. Ideas spread by these groups and individuals may be here and may be incubating. They may be the basis for attacks in the future.
You need to understand the complexity that underlies this issue and the larger interplay between the ideas espoused by these groups and the dangers they pose. We are obviously concerned about those individuals who adopt these ideas and then choose to pursue violence. To be clear, we know that cognitive radicalization, the adoption of radical ideas, does not necessarily lead to behavioural radicalization, the pursuit of violence on those ideas. In fact, we know that the number of individuals who escalate from ideas to violence is actually very small.
These individuals, however, are only one part of a larger concern. Beneath the very small number of individuals who adopt these ideas and are willing to commit violence, there potentially exists a larger number of individuals who, while not yet willing to pursue violence and who may never arrive at that point, nonetheless support or assist others who might. Further beneath that group exists a possible third group of individuals we might label as sympathetic to the ideas, and while not violent or even supportive of these groups or individuals, they instead remain quiet.
I should also be clear in stating that supporters and sympathizers do not need to be active or willing participants. For example, a group of individuals operating in a neighbourhood may be able to intimidate others to offer support or stay quiet. The result, nonetheless, is the same. It allows a safe space for these individuals to operate.
Again, please allow me to be very clear on this point. I'm in no way suggesting that this is an accurate representation of what we currently face here in Canada. I do not believe there is any significant number of individuals who fit into these categories here in Canada, but offer the following qualification: “at this point”.
I'm simply suggesting that our failure to take this threat seriously today creates conditions in which the scenario I have identified could become a reality. Your current point of reference, should you require one, would be places such as Brussels, and France more generally. The success of a very small number of individuals wanting to target civilian populations with violence becomes increasingly possible due to this larger logistical, supportive, or sympathetic segment of the population.
The task before this government is a challenging one. To try to help you understand the complexity of this phenomenon and how we might proceed to addressing it, I would suggest that you think about it as three separate components that are all intertwined with one another. Each one needs to be addressed individually, but in addressing each one of the parts, the sum together helps us mitigate the threat posed by this phenomenon. I will also caution you at this point that there is very little tangible agreement on how we accomplish these goals. There remain tremendous disagreement and debate about each one of these components and the best way to address them. However, this can no longer be used as an excuse to do nothing.
The first aspect of this threat is the one that is most pressing right now: safeguarding Canada and Canadians against those who are intent on harming us, and willing, today. Government reports indicate that this number is currently around 160 individuals. These are individuals who law enforcement and intelligence agencies have identified as significant concerns here and now. This is where governments must make legislative choices about the threat. What do we do with these individuals? How can we keep tabs on them and ensure that they cannot launch attacks?
This is also the danger zone. We cannot be spending all of our time and effort in this space because doing so means we are on the defensive and playing catch-up. Over time we want to shift the focus to the other two components of this phenomenon, which I will quickly outline for you now.
In addition to the clear and present threat, the two additional aspects that need to be addressed are, unfortunately, where government has left a lot to be desired.
The first of these is the preventative component, otherwise known as counter-radicalization. This is where we need to focus on challenging or providing alternative narratives to those presented by these groups. Essentially, it is about starting discussions, encouraging open debate and conversations, and providing a counterweight to the messages these groups are using to attract individuals. Absent this effort, we are not participating in this debate for hearts and minds. This creates a vacuum in which these groups are the only voices individuals may be exposed to. This allows for the possibility that their ideas take hold and, over time, solidify.
The link between prevention and the current threat is straightforward. If we prevent individuals from adopting these ideas or provide counter-perspectives before the ideas become hardened, fewer individuals may graduate to potential violence. Again, these efforts will not prevent every individual from adopting these ideas but through them we seek to minimize the number who may progress towards the next stage. We want and, more importantly, need the number of 160 to decrease to a more manageable number. An increase in this number will quickly stretch resources beyond our ability to keep tabs on all of them, allowing for the possibility that some will slip through the cracks. Again, Brussels is under water.
Canada lacks a preventative strategy. We continue to hear that the office of counter-radicalization will emerge, but this idea has been circulating for several months, maybe even years, without any meaningful implementation.
The third and final aspect pertains to the idea of deradicalization, what we do with individuals who have travelled to join groups or who have become radicalized. This term is also problematic, because it implies that you can change someone's ideas. The term most readily employed in the terrorism literature now is “disengagement”. Discussion of it focuses on ways to prevent individuals from potentially acting on their ideas or actively spreading them.
ISIS is likely nearing defeat, and individuals, including Canadians, may begin returning home. In addition, there's a real possibility that some of these fighters may have children with them. How will Canada welcome them, and what will we do with them? A framework for this reality needs to be prepared. Will Canada pursue a criminal justice approach or a social work approach? Will it be different for different individuals? Who decides, and how? Failing to start investigating this third component will, once again, leave us vulnerable in the future as we react with knee-jerk policies in a potential time of crisis.
In closing, we need to do a better job on preventative measures to ensure, moving forward, that fewer people might become threats to our national security. In addition, we need to start preparing for the eventual return of individuals who have travelled abroad. While it is true that not every one of the individuals who return will pose a threat of attacking Canada or Canadians, the ideas they bring with them may be disseminated, and they, in and of themselves, are part of the concern.
The government needs to be more proactive in addressing longer-term challenges and must immediately implement some meaningful counter-radicalization efforts.
Thank you.