Mr. Chair and members of the committee, thank you for the kind invitation to speak to you today on the topic of Canada's emergency preparedness for threats posed by Russia.
My remarks today draw on a career studying Canadian security in a global context, and specifically on the work I've done with the Canadian Network for Research on Terrorism, Security and Society and as co-director for North American security at the Defence and Security Foresight Group.
The threat to Canada is exacerbated by Russia's clear desperation. Missiles over the Canadian Arctic or the use of weapons of mass destruction look more likely than they did a few months ago, even accounting for the fact that Russia is clearly preoccupied by its invasion of Ukraine not going as it expected. This may mean that the prospects for widening its targets to include Canada or NATO allies may be smaller in the short term, but possibly only the very short term.
What are the most immediate threats? My colleagues have already discussed some of the military threats. I want to focus on some of the immediate but more indirect threats to Canadian public safety.
Russia's disinformation campaign has been hindered by sanctions that have removed Russian media from our airwaves, but they are still prevalent on social media and in forums frequented by adherents of other kinds of populist conspiracy. The weapon of disinformation is not going away. One of the lessons of sanctions research is that sanctions become less effective over time, so we should expect this to be an ongoing threat from Russia. Canada is a target as a member of NATO, but also as a long-standing supporter of Ukraine as personified in the Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland.
Russian disinformation campaigns connect the invasion of Ukraine to QAnon and other deep state conspiracy theories that feed hate crimes and distrust of the Canadian government. A concrete example is the recent QAnon claim that President Putin endorsed the sovereign authority of Romana Didulo, the self-styled “queen of Canada” and QAnon adherent. The attractiveness of conspiracy theories has been increased by the COVID-19 pandemic, and will be increased even more by Russian misinformation, whether targeted directly at Canada or not.
Certainly there's a risk that adherents of these conspiracy theories will commit violent acts, but the political action of supporters of populist extremism can also have harmful effects that don't escalate to the level of security threat or crime. We saw examples of this in the recent trucker convoy in Ottawa, where traffic prevented ambulances from leaving downtown and convoy supporters flooded the 911 system with calls. I want to be very clear that I'm not suggesting that the trucker convoy was a product of Russian misinformation, because I don't think we know that, but these are examples of the kinds of effects that are threats to human security, exacerbated by Russian disinformation, that we're not used to dealing with in the context of security and law.
The good news is that only a narrow swath of Canadians will be attracted to these ideas and influenced by Russian misinformation. The bad news is that their effects are easily amplified by bots, and the solutions may be long term. Media literacy can help in some instances, but in many cases the disinformation will be too sophisticated to educate ourselves out of. Working with private companies, as has already been mentioned, and our allies to improve our technological responses to disinformation is essential. The recent creation of the advisory group on online hate is a step in the right direction, as is the security and intelligence threats to elections task force, which some have suggested should have a role [Technical difficulty—Editor] in now.
We also need to find ways to turn down the temperature on social polarization caused in part by human insecurity and exacerbated by the necessity for global action against Russia. Examples include increasing fuel and food prices, but reinforcing trust in institutions through transparency, reform and cultural change also has a role.
We should not underestimate the ways in which Russia's actions have affected Canada's security by destabilizing the world. Russia has undermined the United Nations, committed war crimes, generated massive flows of refugees and threatened our borders and our allies. Canada is less secure in a world where international law is not respected.
It is easy to be overwhelmed by the scale of the threat when we're talking about everything from a potential nuclear attack to hate crimes. Foreign policy and domestic security are linked. Working to protect Canada from the most direct threats, from missiles to misinformation, and contributing to end the war are obviously imperative. Welcoming refugees and ensuring that the social services that help them are adequately resourced is important, but so too is ensuring that there's a perception that refugees from other conflicts are treated equitably, because not doing so contributes to mistrust in government.