Mr. Chair, members of the committee and fellow panellists, thank you very much.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine represents the continuation of a long-standing effort in Moscow to revise the outcome of the Cold War. Its danger is exacerbated by President Putin's open rejection of Ukrainian nation and statehood. The belief he has expressed that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” implies that Ukrainians don't have a right to determine their own political fate and that they're doomed by history to remain part of a greater Russian nation.
In areas that are occupied by Russian forces, we've seen what this means in practice: the eradication of Ukrainian culture and its bearers; the mass deportation of civilians, including children; widespread sexual assault and other war crimes.
Having failed to arrest Ukraine's westernization through other means, Russia's current war aims at nothing less than the dismantlement of the Ukrainian state and the erasure of Ukrainian identity.
The west is also a target in this conflict, not only because its members continue providing support to Ukraine, but because of what they stand for: That is, a rules-based order built on the foundations of liberalism and democracy, which includes Ukrainians' right to a free and peaceful life in their own state. Even as Russian troops continue their onslaught against Ukraine, Russia is continuing its long-standing efforts to erode Euro-Atlantic solidarity and sow chaos, confusion and corruption within the Euro-Atlantic space. Compared to states on the front line of the conflict, such as Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, Canada, as well as the United States, is somewhat insulated from the worst of Russia's disruptive activities but hardly immune.
Indeed, Russia has a diverse and deep tool kit of disruptive activities that it can employ against current and aspiring members of the NATO alliance. They include techniques such as espionage and the promotion of disinformation, which technology has allowed Russia to amplify. While social media, spyware and other modern digital technologies are instrumental in this campaign of disinformation and disruption, Cold War-era parallels suggest how the west can push back.
The most important steps taken by western leaders to counter Soviet influence during the Cold War centred on addressing the root causes of the societal vulnerability that Moscow exploited. In earlier eras, belief in democracy's vulnerability drove investment in public education, civil rights legislation and the expansion of the welfare state. Similar investments today would go a long way toward shoring up the vulnerabilities that Russia, among other maligned actors, manipulates. We've done this before; we can do it again. Whether we can do so is really a question of priorities and political will.
Of course, Russia has other disruptive tools at its disposal as well, things like sabotage, assassination and the use of non-conventional weapons. Compared to the Cold War, Russia indeed may be more inclined to use at least some of these weapons today because of the relative weakness of its regular military, which we've now all seen on display in Ukraine.
President Putin and his inner circle understand that Russia cannot win a conventional war against NATO. Instead, they've taken to nuclear sabre-rattling as a form of deterrence. Even though the likelihood of nuclear use is low, other kinds of non-conventional attacks are unfortunately possible. Putin's Russia has shown little compunction about conducting sabotage and assassination overseas, including in NATO member states.
Last year, a German court convicted a member of the Russian Federal Security Service of killing a Chechen exile named Zelimkhan Khangoshvili in a Berlin park. Russian agents have also been implicated in two high-profile attacks using banned weapons on British soil: the poisoning of FSB defector, Alexander Litvinenko with polonium; and the the attempted assassination of the double agent, Sergei Skripal, with a nerve agent, Novichok. These attacks show a clear willingness to use not only violence, but also to cross internationally recognized red lines regarding the use of chemical and radiological weapons.
Despite the targeted nature of the attacks against Khangoshvili, Skripal and likely other enemies of the Kremlin, it's not unreasonable for western governments to worry about the possibility of similar attacks, and perhaps attacks on a larger scale. The danger will only grow as the relationship with Moscow deteriorates and Putin grows more desperate as Russian losses in Ukraine mount. Attacks, cyber or kinetic, targeting critical infrastructure, sabotage, false-flag terrorist attacks, and even the use of chemical weapons should be included in the work of defence planners in NATO member states. At the same time, lines of communication to Moscow must be kept open, if only to communicate clearly NATO's determination to prevent, and if necessary, retaliate for any such attacks.
The war in Ukraine has already demonstrated the financial, military and political limits that Putin's Russia faces. As it flounders in Ukraine, Russia, and Putin, may become more aggressive and more reckless. Remaining committed to helping Ukraine defeat the threat to its existence that Putin's Russia poses, the west, NATO, Canada and the United States must all remain alert to the possibility that Russia will cross lines previously thought to be uncrossable. That recognition argues not for timidity, but rather for preparedness and prudence.
We live in dangerous times, but as J. R. R.Tolkien wrote, while we cannot choose the times in which we live, “All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”
Thank you.