When we talk about sanctions, there is a whole range of sanctions. We've been focusing on the oligarch sanctions, but I think the most relevant sanctions have been what I call “self-imposed” sanctions, which have been in the form of western businesses leaving Russia. Most self-respecting western businesses have divested in the same way western businesses did in South Africa to protest apartheid. This has been a much more accelerated divestiture.
The average Russian can't use their credit cards anymore. They can't subscribe to Netflix. They can't get on a flight to any country other than Turkey, Israel or the United Arab Emirates. This has completely changed their life. The IMF estimates that the Russian GDP will contract by 10% to 15%, but I would argue that the number is going to be much higher than that. I think the Russians will face a full-scale economic depression as a result of these sanctions.