To your question on ridership, the ridership study released by the Government of Alberta is in the public domain. It did a worst case, base case, best case study of ridership in the first years of the project. You're looking at between 2.7 million and 3.5 million passengers a year, which is well above the threshold for us to operate the trains and make money.
I should also point out, as John was saying to me, that when engineers do their engineering talks, if you take a worst-case scenario with them, they add on 50%. So when I say $3 billion, you're still only talking about $4.5 billion. There's a great perception in the press in Alberta that this project's going to cost between $3 billion and $20 billion, and this range is just far too wide. There is not the need.
We have looked at the cost of this line. We've compared it to building a brand new line in Australia. We've met with engineering companies from Finland, and they have done work on high-speed rail in Europe at the 300 kilometre per hour level. Their reports say how much they were spending per kilometre in Europe, and we're still in the ballpark. We have never seen an instance when we are not in the ballpark. These big numbers get out there, and you just can't get them back down to where they really are. All of us are comfortable with these numbers.
When I first saw Ralph Garrett's estimate--being a banker, I saw lots of estimates cross my desk--I phoned up Ralph and said, “Okay, the numbers add up. Tell me why it's right.”
To get 50% of what you have to buy to build a railway, you phone up the manufacturer today and say, “What does it cost to buy 600 kilometres of rail line and 75,000 concrete ties?” Go to the Government of Alberta's web page. You'll find what it costs per square foot to build a reinforced concrete bridge--buying the overhead cables, all the equipment that goes with the electrification, substations. Frank can phone up somebody and ask what the cost of buying the articles is.
You have 50% of your cost based on something you order from the manufacturer at a cost that's known today. The prices vary with exchange rates and the price of base metals, but that's fine. We have contingencies of about 20% in the whole of this estimate. Your basic risk costs are in how much earth you move and in any environmental problems that arise. Finding gravel in the northern half of Alberta is more challenging than it is in the southern half.
Is that basically right, John?