I would look at the sixth, seventh, and eighth reports, released in 2007, of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It's pretty groundbreaking work. They can only predict what the physical changes will be. As far as what the commercial patterns can be, obviously if you look at the passage being traversable for more of the year, it's self-evident that you could see a significant increase in traffic. The IPCC is the one that I think is.... More than 200 Canadian scientists participated, and 40 of them were lead authors. That's certainly, for me, the seminal work.
On March 24th, 2009. See this statement in context.