Mr. Speaker, this week's budget is nothing new. There is hardly anything to talk about, since this budget contains no measures that are really new. We realized that, for the next few years, the government has decided to ride the wave that brought it to power in 1993 and to stick with the measures that had been decided at that time-some of which, it must be said, were unpopular. The government has decided that, since these measures were announced two years ago, they did not have to be modified or supplemented by other measures.
In other words, the government is thinking that the blows it dealt to Canadians-some of whom it even clobbered-have caused enough pain, since some of the measures will come into effect this year. Some of the decisions made in the 1994 and 1995 budgets will take effect this year and others next year.
So, of course, the government is looking good, saying: "We will not impose any drastic, unpopular measures this year". No wonder, since those measures have already been announced in previous budgets.
At the same time, the government has decided that, by adopting this new budget, it will still impose measures, although these will not take effect right away.
These measures will be implemented in five years, so that taxpayers will not panic but think: "This may be bad news, but at least we have five years to prepare for it". We have five years to brace ourselves. It is as though people were saying: "Who knows? Many things can happen in five years, so perhaps there will be a miracle and today's bad news will not materialize in five years". This was the government's strategy in tabling this budget, which in fact is designed not to frighten anyone but which does not help improve the situation in any way.
Let us examine some of the measures one by one and see what great plans the government has. Let us start with the national debt.
When the government was first elected, in October 1993, Canada's national debt stood at $508 billion. Today, in the 1996-97 estimates, the federal debt is forecast to reach $602 billion. Next year, last year of this government's rule, the debt will have risen to $619 billion.
For most people, it is difficult to imagine an amount of that magnitude. What does $619 billion represent? When you win $1 million at the lottery for example, you know that $1,000,000 is this figure with six zeros. When you deal with billions, one billion equals one million millions. The government debt is 609 times one billion. Just in the past few years of Liberal government, since 1993, this debt has grown by $110 billion or $112 billion. That is a lot of money.
If the government managed to save, say, $5 billion-or five million times $1 million-every year by making sure that its income was $5 billion higher than its expenditures in its budget, at that rate, by putting $5 billion per year toward repaying the amount by which the debt has increased so far during the Liberal government's mandate, it would take 21 years to repay. This means that, in four short years, the Liberal government has moved us back 21 years. And that is just for the debt incurred over the past four years.
Now, if we were to apply this to the total debt, which is $620 billion, or $619.7 to be more precise, and decided tomorrow morning to repay this debt, by managing wisely, at the rate of $5 billion per year-That is a lot of money, you know. In the past 25 years or more, we have never managed to save that much in just one year in Canada. Every year, for 20 or 25 years, we have accumulated budget deficits. Instead of accumulating surpluses, we accumulated deficits. This means that we spend more than we save.
Let us assume for a moment that the reverse is true and that, tomorrow morning, through sound management, we were able to save $5 billion and use that money to repay the accumulated debt of $620 billion. It would take, listen to this, Mr. Speaker, 120 years to pay off Canada's current debt. So, 120 years to repay the debt. Needless to say that none of us will be around to see that. I do not even want to think about it, because it would be so appalling. It just does not make any sense.
Imagine how much hope and determination one needs to say that this country needs, for the next 120 years, budgets that will allow it to save $5 billion. Right now, we are not able to lower the debt. We barely manage to marginally lower the deficit. And we do so through artificial means. The government says: "The deficit went down from $42 billion in 1993-94 to $24 billion in 1996-97, an $18 billion reduction". However, there is still an extra $24 billion added on to the debt. Next year, we will look at 1997-98. It is anticipated the deficit will then be around $17 billion.
How did the government manage to achieve these deficit reductions? It did not do so by spending less but, rather, by using two main strategies. First, it gives the provinces less money than it used to for social programs and services, health and education being the main ones. This year, in comparison to previous years, the provinces will suffer a $2.5 billion shortfall. Next year, it will be $4.5 billion, for a total of $7 billion.
For Quebec, this means a shortfall of about 25 per cent. In other words, this year our province will receive about $650 million less in transfer payments. Next year, the shortfall will be about double that amount, that is $1.2 or $1.3 billion.
At this rate, I am not sure that many people would still say that Canada is the best country in the world, as is so often claimed by the Prime Minister. At the rate of $5 billion per year, it would take 120 years to pay off our country's debt of $620 billion. If this is the best country in the world, I do not want to hear about the others. It must simply be terrible. Imagine, if that is what the finest and the best looks like.
Clearly, the situation cannot continue as it is, and clearly the government's presentation of the budget in this form is what the leader of the opposition has most aptly called a cosmetic operation. It is an operation which seeks to disguise, to cover up, the magnitude of our economic ills. It is an operation aimed at making people forget that decisions were made two years ago from which there can be no going back. It is also an attempt to make people forget that decisions made to-day will kick in in five years time, whether we like it or not. Which ones are they?
I am referring to the Canadian Social Transfer. This is $7 billion, and we know that implementation has begun. The government has not had to make any new statements; they know that there are $4,5 billion that will not go out to the provinces this year. I had started to talk about how that was financed, as the government knows very well.
I said that the government was financing this, financing the reduction of its deficit in two ways, but I gave just one.
I spoke of the Canadian Social Transfer, where it recovered $7 million, but there is another way. When the federal government decides to collect money, I do not think it can be trusted. As soon as it gets its grubby little hands on some money, you cannot be sure what it will do with that money. Think of what happened to Canadians' unemployment insurance contributions.
There was a time when the federal government participated in the unemployment insurance fund, putting money into it to help out those who were unemployed. However, in recent years, the unem-
ployment insurance fund has been fed only by employee and employer contributions. Only those who work pay in contributions, with their employers. This money is what is will be used to pay unemployment insurance to those who, unfortunately, are out of work.
Now in the past two years, the unemployment insurance situation has improved so significantly that a sort of unemployment insurance profit has been made. In other words, more money is coming in from workers and employers than is being paid out for unemployment-$5 billion last year.
In all fairness, this figure of $5 billion should go to the workers and employers from whose pockets it all came. However, as employees and employers trusted the government, they have said: "You are a trustworthy body, you will collect this money for us and will keep it in reserve, in the bank, and when you need it, you will give it to us for the unemployed".
The government, which already had this responsibility, decided to keep it, of course, because that would also allow it, until the money was needed, to make whatever use of it it felt justified.
When you put money into the hands of someone who needs it, is it not a great temptation for that person to use the money until the unemployed need it? Since the government is running a deficit, and needs money to look good, to be considered a good manager, when it sees $5 million not being used, it grabs it saying: "I will pay it back later, if the unemployment insurance fund ever runs a deficit".
In other words, when employers and employees decided to put their UI contributions into the hands of the government, without reservation, it was as if the fox had been put in charge of the henhouse.
The English have a another way of saying that. The Minister of Finance, who comes from Quebec, often uses the expression: "Do not put the rabbit in charge of the lettuce". For Quebecers who may not have understand, it means that to keep the lettuce, we should not give it to the rabbit or else, when time comes to eat the lettuce, there might be some missing.
That is roughly what happened with the unemployment insurance fund: the government acted like a fox, or like a rabbit in front of a box full of lettuce. With its growing appetite-and we know how voracious the government can get-it took a large helping. Indeed, it took $5 billion paid by workers and employers and said: "With this, I can reduce the deficit by $5 billion". Adding $5 billion to $7 billion, we get the $12 billion that are not being transferred to provinces: "Mission accomplished, we have reduced the deficit by $12 billion".
That is why, in the budget, the government did not change a thing in its approach, in the way it collects UI premiums and in the way it pays UI benefits. If the government had wanted to, it had an ideal opportunity to take advantage of the situation to create jobs. Here is $5 billion paid by workers that are not used for unemployment insurance. It could have taken this opportunity to lower UI premiums, which would have left in the economy $5 billion more that could have been used to create new jobs. The government should have jumped at this opportunity, if it had been sincere, having promised during the last election campaign to create "Jobs, jobs, jobs". It had the opportunity to create jobs, but it did nothing. It did not jump at the opportunity. Instead it jumped at the opportunity of making a good show.
Why is the government trying to improve its image these days? Why does it need so much to improve it? Government members, from the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance on down, surely watch television. They must watch television. They must see what is going on in the other provinces. They must see what is going on in their own province, in some cities, when the government announces measures that will affect the underprivileged.
I wonder if the government is not paving the way, just in case it might no longer be able to run the country in a few months from now. The Axworthy reform, which was withdrawn at prorogation, is a bill which the government is trying to reinstate right now. This reform is not all that popular. Thousands and thousands of citizens, people from the provinces of Quebec, New Brunswick, and Ontario, are complaining about this reform, calling it inhuman because it mostly picks on the less-privileged.
Could it be that the government that is about to reinstate this bill, which will surely prove to be very unpopular, is trying to rebuild its image just in case it has to call an election? It could be. The government might have to call an election because of its unpopular measures, so it might be thinking: "Maybe we should start preparing some ground work here."
It is a pity that I only have a few seconds left, Mr. Speaker, because I have so much more to say, but I will rely on my hon. colleagues to take part in this debate and decry not only the government, but also the budget, which, as I said before, does nothing to correct the disastrous debt and employment situation we have in Canada.