There is so much I could say about this bill.
Researchers came to tell us this is a leap in the dark, because if you ask one economist to examine the effect of this measure, he will tell you one thing, but if you ask another economist to examine the effect of this measure, he will tell you something else. At least, Mr. Audenrode of Laval University said clearly: "It is not so much any specific measure that concerns me but the extent and complexity of the proposed reform. If one can easily imagine the impact of a specific modification to one aspect of a given system, it is almost impossible to imagine the consequences of a reform as far-reaching as the one being proposed".
He went on to say: "I am unable to give you even an indication of what would be the impact of the proposed reform, and I honestly think that no economist can do so".
When I asked senior officials what they thought of that statement, they told me: "We in the department have an enormous file but we, of course, built this proposed reform on an econometric model". That is the problem. What is the hurry? Why take the chance of seriously hurting regions and people, when there is no hurry? Why is there no hurry? Because the $5 billion surplus that is forecast for the end of this year without the reform would be less if the reform goes ahead. It would go down to $4.5 billion, so there is no hurry.
The Minister of Finance cannot say: "Hurry, Hurry, Hurry. The deficit is at stake". That is not true. This year, the reform will reduce the surplus by $1 billion. This figure comes from the Department of Human Resources Development itself. I even took the trouble of confirming it with the actuary, to make sure I was reading it right.
On page 6.6 of the most recent summary of the unemployment insurance account, it says that, as expected, revenues from current contributions for 1996 amount to $19.801 billion. Note 2 adds the following that since premiums are collected on the basis of the maximum weekly insurable earnings-reduced without having passed any legislation to that effect-the government currently collects less money than what the act provides. Consequently, expected premiums should reach $18.806 billion, or one billion less.
So, this year, the reform will result in a $1 billion shortfall. Why hurry to take such an enormous risk? As the researcher mentioned, it is a leap in the dark.
He adds: "All these financial estimates are made by applying the new parameters to existing patterns". However, as he points out, these patterns will change. For example, I do not agree with the fact that people who currently work up to 15 hours per week are not covered by an unemployment insurance system. Yet, from now on, these people will have to pay premiums, unless they earn less than $2,000-and I will get back to this-but will not be entitled to benefits.
What will restaurant owners do? It is true that a large proportion of their peak hours staff works less than 15 hours. We all know how things works in a restaurant. Albert the waiter gets a phone call: "Come. Stay home. The restaurant is full. It is quiet". When restaurant owners will have to do all the related accounting, do you think they will continue to hire students? No. This is why the student federation asked for an exemption.
We have to realize that even though those who earn less than $2,000 will get a refund for their premiums, this repayment will only take place the following year, when they file their income tax returns. Students can no longer get an exemption. Their tuition fees are increasing, but they will be deprived of an amount equivalent to the unemployment insurance premiums they will have paid. They definitely do not need that.
Behaviour will change. Some jobs will disappear. We can hope that weekly wages will go up, but one very important thing is that it will be at a cost. Why has the time not been taken? There is no rush. Or are they in such a rush to reduce benefits from $445, the present amount, to $413, which is what they will be when the new act comes into force.
Are they in such a hurry that they must take the risk they are taking? Let us not forget that the unemployment insurance system is the best way to stabilize the economy. What is stabilizing about it? The benefits, the premiums, play no small role, according to Peter Duncan, associate professor, Department of Economics, University of Toronto. It is an excellent stabilizer, better than income tax, much better than income tax. The benefits have a stabilizing effect. What does the government do? I repeat, it reduces benefits by $4.4 billion over a period of five years.
Why is the government lowering the maximum insurable earnings. Many researcher said they were worried about this change. Is it because the government wants to leave the lucrative market of workers earning over $39,000 to the private insurance sector? is it because, as the deputy minister told us, of these $900 million paid by workers and businesses for those earning between $39,000 and $42,400, a very large portion remains in the Fund?
The deputy minister had the nerve to say that those earning over $39,000 were less likely to lose their job and that they would withdraw only $200 million of the $900 million paid. It is good that those who have higher and more stable earnings contribute to the general economic and financial balance, while at the same time paying their share for maternity leave, educational leave and so on.
This unemployment insurance plan is the only mechanism carrying people over from one job to the next. With this bill, the government is making it twice as hard for those who are already on the labour market to qualify, and three times as hard for young people, women, immigrants, the sick and anyone who is not already on the labour market.
Why make access more difficult? Why divide the applicable earnings by a fixed divider or by the number of weeks worked, which can only have the effect-the effect sought by the government, it said so itself-of reducing benefits? Why reduce benefits? Why reduce the number of weeks? Why make access more difficult when already less than 50 per cent of the unemployed are covered by this plan?
Is it not obvious that this is messing up not only the stabilizing effect it has on the economy as a whole, but also whatever little protection enjoyed by those who are not rich or do not have the armour-clad job security public service employees have? It is the only protection they have; they have nothing else.
As you know, between 25 and 30 per cent of all Canadian workers rely on the unemployment insurance system each and every year. This bill will affect millions of people.
Why is the government in such a hurry? Why did it gag the opposition as it did? We did not get to debate the bill in second reading. Six 10-minute speeches. We were gagged at committee stage, and again at report stage. All the time we have for third reading is one day and, on the government's side, since they are
gagging us instead of having the decency to let us speak, they are taking their sweet time. That is disgusting, because there is no rush.
Why are they in a hurry? There is something fishy, do you not think? Why do you think they are in such a hurry to cut contributions and benefits, when all those concerned, all the groups at various levels are protesting and asking that they not go so fast, but rather take the time to consult them and to develop a real program? What is the rush? Why are they in such a hurry to cut $1 billion in contributions? Why are they in such a hurry to see minister Martin reduce his deficit?
Whether the reform takes place or not, next year more will be added to the $5 billion surplus already accumulated in the unemployment insurance fund. This can certainly not explain the government's haste.
We must however note that, having done everything it could, up to and including using its parliamentary powers to the limit, the official opposition did not succeed in making government listen.
It should be pointed out that there have been demonstrations like we had not seen in a very long time. These protestors, in Quebec and especially in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia-considering all the demonstrations, the 40,000 postcards we tabled, the petitions, the number of people who have expressed their opposition largely exceeds 100,000-succeeded in slightly softening the blow, because what was totally disgraceful has been slightly changed. However, the total package remains unacceptable.
Throughout the day, my colleagues will focus on measures like this one. Indeed, those with two jobs will be able to take all their hours of work into account, but should be wary of voluntarily leaving one of their two jobs because they would then lose all the insurable weeks of work accumulated until then. This is a measure that totally contradicts the spirit the government claims is behind this reform.
What is most dangerous and difficult is hearing hon. members opposite brag about this reform. What I understand, and what some are happy about, is that they managed to modify certain measures so that they are no longer totally disgraceful. They are quite happy with that, although the total package remains unacceptable. They could have carried out a real reform. They could have maintained the maximum insurable earnings or increased them. They could even have made a distinction between maximum benefits and maximum insurable earnings, as is done in the tax system and in other areas. It is not because people some will contribute more that they will be entitled to receive larger benefits in various areas. But they did not have the right to sabotage something Canadians and Quebecers care about, their security, which they are willing to pay for.
The poll results that appeared in this morning's Le Devoir are extremely interesting, despite the trouble we had breaking through the sound barrier. To the question: Who will benefit the most from UI reform?'', 79 per cent of respondents answeredthe federal government itself''. To the other question: ``In the case of Quebec workers, would you like the UI program to be administered by the Quebec government?'', 74.5 per cent answered yes.
People now understand that a true reform is possible and that, with this one, Quebec workers are being deprived of the much-praised "Canadian spirit" of sharing the disadvantages and consequences of unemployment.
Quebec workers, like their counterparts in Atlantic Canada, understand that this reform will reduce interregional adjustments and impede efforts to reduce the gap between the haves and the have-nots. Quebecers value the system, as the poll showed, and I think that if we put the same questions to Canadians, we will get the same results: Canadians value the system. Quebecers value it and they feel the best way to avoid its deterioration is to take it over.
Personally, I regard as a failure the fact that members opposite refused all discussion. They failed to save what deserved to be saved in this country we want to keep as a partner.