Mr. Speaker, it is an honour to rise today. I would like to advise the House that I will be splitting my time with the member for Mississauga West.
The last comment from my hon. friend in the Bloc was that he cannot guarantee my safety in his riding because of the tension. This use of hyperbole, of gross exaggeration is so typical of when members of the Bloc Quebecois speak. It is ridiculous. We see this in its motion. It talks about the catastrophic effects of the reforms that we have had in unemployment insurance.
I ask the member, is it catastrophic that roughly one million more people are working today than were working in 1993? Is it catastrophic that the unemployment rate has dropped from 11.2% to 8.4% and is continuing to drop? Is it catastrophic that our job creation numbers in the last four months have been outstanding? We have created more jobs on a percentage basis than has the United States. Is it catastrophic that there were 171,000 new jobs in the first four months of 1998? Are these examples of the great catastrophe my friend in the Bloc Quebecois is talking about?
Is it catastrophic that the OECD is forecasting the highest growth, 3.8% for Canada, of any of the countries in the G-7? Is it catastrophic that inflation is at its lowest level in 30 years? When there is lower inflation we get lower interest rates and we get more investment by business. With more investment by business we get more jobs. The jobs that we already have in our economy become more secure as businesses invest in new plant and equipment and make those jobs more sustainable.
Is it catastrophic that our deficit has dropped from $42 billion when we took office in 1993 to zero today, again putting more pressure on lowering interest rates and higher investments by firms?
My final comment to my hon. friend about saying that the tension is so palpable that he cannot guarantee my safety in his riding, he should come to St. Thomas to see the new investments. He should come to see 1,000 new jobs coming out of investment by Magna corporation because of the upswing in the auto industry. He should come and see the new investment in a new truck plant by Freightliner which is a subsidiary of Daimler-Benz. Both those plants will be making products for the world. It represents a confidence in this country I wish my friend across the way and his colleagues in the Bloc Quebecois shared.
I know the Liberals will talk about the good news all day today and the people in the opposition will talk about the bad news. Clearly one thing is true, that we are better off as a country than we were in 1993. That is why Canadians rewarded us with a second mandate and a majority government.
Having said that, any examination of the unemployment insurance system today, or the employment insurance bill, should acknowledge that the benefits to unemployment ratio has dropped. It has dropped from roughly 80% sometime ago to 43%. That on the face of it suggests a problem. We do have a surplus that is quite large. Both those elements taken together should cause us to reflect some on the cuts we made to the EI system.
Without getting into it in some detail, I had a discussion with front line workers in my local Canada employment office on Friday. They thought that sick benefits needed to be looked at. Right now the length of the term for people on sick benefits is 15 weeks. If we are going to make the system more generous we should expand the number of weeks available for sick benefits.
Another point which was mentioned in the meeting was that we need to provide more support for unskilled workers. If they get laid off from their job right now, the number of weeks on EI is calculated using a formula based on the number of weeks worked and the local unemployment level. We need to identify people within the unemployed group who are in particular need of greater support. Maybe we could provide them with longer term income support.
Older workers would also fit within this category. It may make sense that we provide older workers with longer term income support. An article in Friday's Toronto Star reported that Statistics Canada had said, and which all of us probably know anyway, that older workers take longer to find jobs and are more likely to exhaust their benefits.
Maybe we should take this time of dropping the EI ratio and the rising surplus to examine the whole issue of support we provide for older workers. Perhaps that is an area that could have some tinkering or some extra benefits.
Another issue that comes up is the whole issue of dropping the EI premium rate. The premium rate has to come down in a gradual and measured way. The thing we want to avoid is taking premiums up when we enter the next recession, which none of us want to see come soon. We all have to admit that the economy goes up and down. Eventually we are going to be in an economic downturn which would be the worst time to raise premium rates. It makes sense to lower them only when we are confident that lowering them is somewhat permanent and can work its way through the economy.
In the last three years the Government of Canada has dropped the employment insurance premiums paid by employees and employers by about $2.6 billion. This year alone Canadians are paying $1.4 billion less in EI premiums than they did last year. They are paying less because the government has reduced the EI premium rate four times in the last four years, from $3.07 per $100 of earnings in 1994 to $2.70 this year. This is the second largest reduction since the 1970s. The downward trend began when the government took office and will continue as fiscal circumstances permit. As premiums come down, it makes it easier to hire people and I think it is good news for all of us.
The 1998 EI premium rate was set by the employment insurance commission with the mandate given to it by the EI Act. In making the announcement last November, the government said it had gone as far as it prudently could in lowering premiums at that time. The rate provides for a cumulative surplus at the end of 1998 in the range of $15 billion to $19 billion, depending on economic performance. Some of us would say that this huge surplus of $15 billion to $19 billion is a catastrophe. Let me tell the House what is a catastrophe.
Prior to 1993 we had a UI expense that had grown from roughly $8 billion annually to about $18 billion annually. It was a social program that was fundamentally unsustainable and cried out for reform. If we had not dealt with that problem the people who would have been hurt the worst would have been the unemployed themselves, because eventually the program would have collapsed on itself and we would have had no program.
The premium rate must also be set at a level that will ensure the EI account will have sufficient funds to pay benefits even during a recession. The government wants to avoid raising premium rates if and when there is a downturn in the economy. A major increase in EI premiums during such a time would be harmful to the economy and to Canadian workers.
Canadians remember only too well what has happened in the past when the previous government lowered premiums one year when the times were good and raised them up the next year when times were bad.
During the recession of the 1990s the account went into a $6 billion deficit. Major cuts to benefits and sharp premium rate increases were used to stop the account deficit from getting worse.
We can all remember the bad old days when we were cutting benefits basically in the depths of the recession. In effect the program acted as a destabilizer rather than an economic stabilizer. That is exactly what we want to avoid in the future, keeping in mind the unpredictable nature of the business cycles. The experience of the last recession taught us a lesson and provides guidance for future decisions.
The current surplus makes prudent provisions against rate hikes in the event of unforeseen economic and global changes. Being prudent now means we will not have to cut benefits and raise premiums when the unemployed premium paying workers and employers can least afford it. Being prudent means that we are prepared to respond to unpredictable shifts in the labour market. Being prudent also allows the government to address unemployment where it is most severe.
The rise in the EI surplus gives us a flexibility we did not have before. I would suggest that the hon. members from the Bloc not use such ridiculous terms as “catastrophe” and appreciate that the economy is in far better shape than when we took office and give us the credit for that.