Mr. Speaker, I am pleased to address the opposition motion concerning poverty and the tax burden. I will be splitting my time.
They are matters of real concern for Canadians and they deserve the full attention of the House. However, I am worried about the underlying assumption of the hon. member's motion, that the government is in a position to take extreme action, to take action to dramatically bring down our national tax burden.
There is no politician, certainly not on this side of the House, who does not want to bring tax reform to Canadians, especially to help reduce poverty. But, and there is a very big but, appealing politics often does not make good public policy. The national pocketbook can simply not pay for the wish lists many of us have. If we cannot afford it, we cannot do it.
Too many governments in the past have had good intentions that have outweighed fiscal reality. As a result of two decades of deficits we had a national debt that was the second worst, the second highest among G-7 major industrial nations. It affected our growth. We lagged in growth and there were too many Canadians, despite the spending, who remained in need. That is not to deny that easing Canada's tax burden must be a priority. It is a priority for the government. Tax cuts should be focused first on those in the greatest need. That is just what we did in the last budget.
Canadians made it very clear in the last two federal elections that it is a fundamental priority for them that the government continue to give good financial management, both of the nation's resources and of government itself.
When I speak to my constituents in Kitchener Centre as well to Canadians from coast to coast, which I have had the opportunity to do being a member of the finance committee, I have not heard any voices saying that cutting taxes is more important than maintaining the gains we have made.
Canadians remember too well the price we paid for relying on deficit spending, resulting higher interest rates, lower economic growth and the jobs that have been lost. A key priority for the government is to avoid returning to the vicious cycle that was dominated by federal policy in the two previous decades.
Priorities are neither simple nor self-evident when it comes to the budget of a government. This debate attempts to focus on a single issue, an issue dealt with in isolation, and even one as compelling as poverty can make this conversation simplistic and self-serving.
Let me again emphasize that we are committed absolutely and aggressively to tax relief, especially for low income Canadians.
We will not do so through knee-jerk decisions that ignore fiscal reality, the world environment and the appropriate role for government.
The finance minister addressed this in his October economic update before the House finance committee. Our work as a government reflects that the pursuit of frugality had to become a defining feature of everything we do. This is a principle that must govern all policy making and debates such as ours here today.
Given the volatile condition in many parts of the world economy, we are in a situation that calls for great care and extreme caution. We must be realistic about the resources at our disposal.
Some seem to believe we have mountains of money to spend, that we should step back and take action immediately. I suggest we need to continue with a more balanced look, a look that takes global trends into consideration.
As a government we need to continue to make hard choices. I suggest we will continue to do that.
The minister pointed out what has happened in the average forecast of economic growth by private sector experts over the past year. In January 1998 they were estimating a nominal income growth of 4.7% for that fiscal year. By the fall, it was revised downward to 3%. For 1999, a 4.9% nominal income growth was projected. By the fall, that too was down significantly, reduced to 3.5%.
What do these revisions mean in the size of the possible fiscal surpluses projected by the private sector? The answer is it would take out over $5 billion of government revenues in the coming fiscal year, 1999-2000. This is what next week's budget will address.
In our last budget many criticized us for being too prudent, too cautious in their estimation. We are hearing that same criticism in today's debate. We have been attacked for not moving quickly to slash taxes but the dramatic downward revision of private sector forecasts illustrates that as a government we must stick to a careful approach to budget planning.
We simply cannot afford the risks associated with the changing of planning assumptions so drastically month by month. This is not an academic argument or some arcane point from economic theory.
Consider the result if we followed the advice of some not long ago to take $9 billion to $10 billion of tax burden action, action they claimed we could afford.
If they were wrong, the result would push us back into deficit virtually overnight. It is easy to be wrong. Projecting government revenues and spending pressures, very large numbers, is dealt with in a matter of a mere 12 months. The fact is government revenues and spending, including interest payments on the debt, are both in the range of $150 billion.
If forecasts are off by merely 1%, an amount statistically not particularly significant, in each of these sectors, if the revenue is out 1%, it is lower and costs are up 1%, the answer is that they are out by $3 billion. That is $3 billion we do not have.
If we committed the $6 billion to $7 billion in tax cuts with little more than 1% shortfall in revenues and 1% again in costs, we would be back into the world of deficit financing. To get out we would simply have to raise taxes. Then they would be higher and we would be back into that downward spiral.
It is these risks based not on ideology but mathematics that the finance minister must consider when planning his new budget. That is why I share his concern that the fiscal dividend over the next two years must be estimated to be modest, much less than would be required to provide sufficient funding for the types of initiatives on tax reduction that today's motion calls for. Clearly careful consideration and choice in allocating that dividend will be required.
Again in the words of the finance minister, the very reason that we have met our targets, the very reason we are now able to say that despite the global economic crisis we are still on track not only to balance the books but to have a dividend, all this is anchored in the caution we have applied from the very beginning.
Some have said we should implement major personal income tax cuts, for example, an average of $600 annually per taxpayer. That comes with a price tag of about $9 billion per year. Others are demanding that employment insurance premiums be reduced to a so-called break even level. That comes with a cost of $6 billion per year. Still others are saying we should mount a larger attack on the debt. That would cost in the neighbourhood of $3 billion a year. If we add that up, our total bill would be $18 billion each and every year.
This is not a complete inventory; this is merely a highlight of some of the requests that have been made of the government. Adopting all of these principles very clearly would put the country back in a situation of serious chronic deficits. Adopting any one of these proposals could put us in financial difficulty.
Let me again emphasize, I do not intend to understate the significance that Canadians and our government put on easing taxes and reducing poverty. It is only by looking at the sum of our priorities that we will be able to give long term security to all Canadians. That is why it would be irresponsible of us to accept, as this motion does, the easy assumption that government has all kinds of money at its disposal.