Mr. Speaker, I will share my time with the hon. member for Charleswood St. James—Assiniboia.
First, I want to congratulate the Minister of Finance and his staff for the remarkable job they did once again this year with the budget.
For the second year in a row, our federal budget, the Canadians' budget, succeeded in being deficit free, this after two decades of running deficits. The light is no longer at the end of the tunnel, because we have come out of the tunnel. We have every reason to be proud.
I heartily congratulate the minister for having focused his budget on health, thus reflecting the concerns expressed by Canadians, who were increasingly worried about health care, to the point of thinking that it might be in jeopardy. The minister delivered and brilliantly so. Our government listened.
This budget meets the concerns of my constituents in Laval West and of all Canadians. People from all walks of life have expressed their legitimate concerns to me. Thanks to the budget, these concerns are now greatly alleviated. I am referring to issues that concern our aging Canadian population, such as health, and the middle generation, which has to deal with the dependency of both the younger and older generations.
This phenomenon will of course not be reversed with the budget, but at least this budget will give us the means to adjust to the best of our ability to this new situation.
Let me mention a few figures to better show the scope of this phenomenon. In 1981, 9.6% of the population was 65 or older. Since then, this has increased by approximately 1% a year and, in 1996, 12% of the population was at least 65 years of age. It is expected that over 20% of Canadians will be in this age group by 2031. This means that one in five Canadians will be at least 65 years old. Furthermore, I would remind everyone listening that this is only 32 years away, and time is flying.
The aging of our population, a phenomenon common to all industrialized countries, has had, and will continue to have, a number of important consequences.
First, health services must adapt to new demands, for seniors have special physical and mental health problems. Unfortunately, for instance, they lose their autonomy and their mobility. More gerontologists will therefore be needed.
Long term care is more appropriate for this age group. Home care, provided by relatives, helps prevent the loneliness to which they are too often prone. And, of course, research must continue, and it must increasingly focus on developing care for seniors and the next generations.
Like health care services, social services will also be increasingly called upon to meet the needs of a population that is demanding programs tailored to its needs.
Pensions, for instance, will represent an increasingly large component of federal budgets. Other programs will certainly have to be developed to more effectively meet the needs of those losing their autonomy. There must also be support for charitable groups and organizations that will undoubtedly come on the scene to provide assistance to seniors, which will make up one fifth of the population.
In fact, the problem will be not so much one of finding additional resources as of redistributing them effectively, for the rate of dependency will be no higher than it was in the 1950s and 1960s after the baby boom. In those days, the number of young children who depended on their parents' work and care was even greater than the number of seniors who will depend on social services and on their families in the future.
Today, part of the population officially categorized as inactive belongs to that category because it is getting into the twilight years and is taking a well deserved rest to accomplish other things. Thirty years ago, there was a similar part of the population that was simply too young to work, busy growing up and getting an education.
This means that pensions and health care will account for an increasing portion of government budgets to meet the needs of seniors. Inversely, the portion allocated to family allowances and early childhood education will decrease. This trend is well reflected in our 1999 budget. In other words, in proportion of government revenues, there will be more people receiving pensions, but there will be less people in our schools and universities.
With the baby boom that followed World War II, millions of young people who were not going to enter the labour force until the 1970s and who required special care were born in Canada. The Liberal governments of the day responded to this new situation in an intelligent and responsible manner. Specialized social services were provided.
Tax deductions were granted and the health system put in place to respond to a new demographic reality, but today we face a similar situation, but in reverse, with an age dependency ratio closer to what we had in the 1950s and 1960s. This means moving from programs geared toward baby boomers directly to those to be developed for seniors.
Programs must once again keep pace with changing demographics. Now, we must respond intelligently to an aging population, as we did in the past to a younger one. Our government has realized how important this is. We have started taking steps and are even ahead.
Regarding the health services, the minister has done well. Over the next five years, $11.5 billion will be transferred to the provinces under the Canada health and social transfer. In addition, $1.4 billion will be injected into medical research. This is a clear and effective response to the concerns and health needs of Canadians in general, and seniors in particular.
Rumour has it that the Bloc Quebecois was not too happy with the changes made to the terms of transfer under the CHST. Quebec will not get as much, they protest. As usual.
But our colleagues should know that a budget is a whole, made up of different parts. The Minister of Finance can readjust certain transfers to make the whole more consistent and ensure that everything works properly. He can transfer less under a given program in order to transfer more under another. Criticism must not be voiced out of context, or deal with concrete issues in abstract terms.
The fact of the matter is that the so-called cut in transfers under the CHST is more than made up by the increase in equalization payments. With these two types of transfers, in the next 13 months alone, Quebec will receive 48% of all the money paid to the provinces, and 29% over the next five years. That is not bad for a province with 24% of the Canadian population.
The figures do not lie. Quebec, like the rest of Canada, comes out a winner with this budget. In addition to the substantial and impressive funds injected into health, the tax relief announced in the budget is another way to respond to population aging, by leaving more money in the pockets of seniors and the families looking after them.
The 3% surtax introduced to combat the deficit serves no purpose now and will disappear completely. The basic personal exemption rises to $7,131. So the 600,000 Canadians with more modest income will not pay income tax. By the fiscal year 2001-02, our government will have cut taxes by $16.5 billion. Two million low or middle income families will receive increased child benefits.
I am unable to finish, because I am out of time, but I would ask all members of this House to have the courage to recognize that our government, through the Minister of Finance, looked after the real problems of Canadians.